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Episode #9: Market Tantrum Almost Over? I felt compelled to record another live stream with my updated #macro views... and how they related to #bitcoin and risk assets. TL;DR - The economic and market-based tantrums are almost over. - Many tech stocks and bitcoin at oversold levels. - Highly enthusiastic about #bitcoin at current price levels. - Increased monetary easing around the world. - The bull market hasn't even begun... but it's coming (very) soon. This episode was live streamed to @zap.stream and YouTube, and will be uploaded shortly to Spotify and @Fountain . Here's a link to the show, in case you missed it:

Replies (9)

↩ replying to npub153fm...vqth
Predictions are a fool's errand, but here's my best guess: 75-80% chance that he stays the course, says the "economy is strong" (as he always does), and makes no policy change. 20-25% chance that he makes a dovish surprise... with plans to stop the roll-off of Treasurys and MBSs off of the Fed's balance sheets and/or a 25 bps cut of the federal funds rate -- Either of these, or even a hint of them, would be bullish for risk assets and bitcoin.
Spot on Jeff. March 11 was the bottom. Coming off the original low after the 2008 financial crisis. March 9 was the bottom in the US markets and that date has been a significant date in markets ever since give or take a day. It’s uncanny how bitcoin follows these dates. I’ll send you my analysis if you like and you can see for yourself. I used it to pick the November 10 2022 bottom for the last cycle when FTX collapsed. It then made another double bottom on November 21 2022 which will now be a significant date going forward in this bull market and may even predict the day of the top of the 2025 bull market, Plus or minus a day.