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I am a believer in the power law until proven otherwise.

The power law was developed to counter the obvious and impactful implications of S2F … amazing how so many bitcoiners have anchored to the obviously bearish model. Assumes basically no network effects of adoption. It is fucking stupid.

I suppose you understand that the s2f has been invalidated both statistically and empirically...

Interesting 👀

The FTX psyop had to bring in Larry David, Tom Brady, Steph Curry, et al (and Sequoia for the tech finance community) to break the market’s psyche

You can sit back and wait to see what ridiculous prices the s2f is quoted and it has never been right, the model has been broken for years.

Since FTX … agreed.

I just learned about this Power Law. It aligns with my hunches, but I don't know for sure. I like the way you put it, "until proven otherwise."

"All models are wrong, but some are useful"

Mostly because I've been in the markets since 1999, I've learned something, I'm not a 20 year old kid who believes all the nonsense they post on social networks. If you think the price of Bitcoin is going to 400K in this cycle, well, that's up to you, but it's not.

Okay, explain Leonard Lepard or Luke Groman's predictions then. They aren't 20 somethings and they have been in the game a lot longer than you. The point is the adoption curve of Bitcoin is going parabolic due to incentive not hype. Maybe it's not the 20 year olds on social media that you should listen to for real market information or price opinion. Check their sources.