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There was a big story a few years ago about "Ghost Cities" where because the Chinese government doesn't let its citizens play with capitalist things like the stock market etc. everyone put their spare money into new homes. The population data seemed to indicated that China would easily fill them but they stayed empty. They then tried to explain this as people were choosing to go to university rather than straight into a job, so the home data was a couple of years adrift but they would come... They are still waiting and the housing economy bubble has well and truly popped now.
Gemini has convincing arguments for the misscount being of the order of 100 million, not 1 billion. Reasons for growth with 1 child policy are that life expectancy moved from 44 to 77 years, so while fewer kids were born, many fewer olds died. Caloric consumption and other economic and industrial factors can't be explained with less than a billion people.