What the gold market tells me about Bitcoin:
- you can have the right view but just be too early: I invested in gold in 2020 and 2021 alongside bitcoin back when Zoltan Pozsar toured podcasts. For 2-3 years, not much happened.
- diminishing returns do not apply to hard assets.
- momentum beats rationality in the 1-5 year frame: see the silver
- market structure beats market cap: when everyone has 2-5% gold exposure and believes in it, they won’t sell when it doubles or triples. But when crypto degens make 100% gain in 1 year, they flood the market with stop losses
- payment capability is irrelevant to price, or else: price is determined by stock, not flow
