My initial thoughts on the deal.
There’s no phase two. That's clear to everyone, right? Phase two might happen someday, but it’s unrelated to what’s just been signed.
The deal signed now is a hostage release deal. It doesn’t imply anything about the future. Theoretically, fantasies could come true: Emiratis and allies dismantling tunnels, an international body formed, Tony Blair governing Gaza.
All this could happen in theory, but it’s not part of the current tactical negotiations. What we have now is a hostage deal, and a ceasefire while talks continue in good faith.
There’s the question of course: who decides if talks are happening in good faith?
Under Trump, Israel has previously said “Talks aren’t genuine or productive,” and resumed fighting. But this time, I don’t think we’ll see IDF tanks rushing back into Gaza, like what happened when the last two ceasefires ended.
The big question is: Are we moving towards the Lebanese model Israel mentioned? In other words, the IDF stays beyond the international border and strikes targets from the air when it detects buildups or threats.
Attempts to harm Israel are obvious. But what we’re talking about is buildup efforts, like digging more tunnels or building more arms-producing lathes. This is what Israel is aiming for. The reasonable assumption in Jerusalem is that President Trump will approve it.
That’s one point.
The IDF will withdraw to the 53% line. It was 57% initially, then dropped to 53% when the hostages will be freed.
The talks afterwards are based on the principle of Israeli withdrawal in return for demilitarization and dismantling. Of course, we all assume that Hamas won’t disarm willingly, and the Emiratis and other international forces won’t achieve this quickly either.
Now, regarding the hostage issue. I’ll admit than when I hear people say that Israel is “making peace with enemies,” I smell Oslo in the air, and the implications it carries. This isn’t peace, and these are bitter enemies, still on their knees.
