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🛡️
Just got triggered by another bitcoin analyst write-up. So, for like the zillionth time... The last six months of price consolidation "at or near the 2021 highs" is NOT ATYPICAL OR UNUSUAL if you understand that: 1. The 2021 bitcoin price high of approximately $69k was an (abnormally low) anomaly, historically-speaking... and *should have* been closer to $125k. 2. The anomaly was caused primarily by China's sudden and effective ban of Bitcoin mining, which caused the hash rate to drop precipitously by approximately 50% in the spring/summer months of 2021. By the time hash rate recovered, the liquidity and leverage wave of late 2021 had reached its peak, limiting further upside price action. 3. Once understood, the current post-halving rangebound consolidation of approximately 40-60% of $125k (range: $50k-75k) is TOTALLY NORMAL and quite similar to 2H 2016 and 2H 2020 price action. Hopefully this makes sense and is helpful to those who are despairing and/or are new to bitcoin. Cheers. 🍻

Replies (12)

I have wondered if the COVID panic and subsequent awareness of BTC actually drove the BTC higher than it would have gone otherwise. Perhaps people had more time to look into Bitcoin. Perhaps realizing that we have been gas-lit for decades. Just wondering, that's all.
My contrarian view is that BTC price action of the last 4 years and going forward has a lot more to do with major events (Covid, FTX, ETFs, etc) Whatever the next major event is will have a lot more impact on price than the old halving cycles.