Every. Cycle. Same. Lies
John #McAfee (software entrepreneur)
• Prediction: $1,000,000 BTC by end of 2020
• Outcome: Didn’t happen
• After: Walked it back, then disappeared from the prediction game
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Tom #Lee (Fundstrat)
• Prediction: $25k in 2018, $40k+ in 2019
• Outcome: Missed repeatedly
• Pattern: Constantly revised upward later
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Tim #Draper (venture capitalist)
• Prediction: $250k by 2022
• Outcome: Missed
• Update: “Delayed, not wrong”
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#PlanB (Stock-to-Flow creator)
• Prediction:
• $100k by end of 2021
• Monthly targets that “could not be invalidated”
• Outcome: Failed across the board
• After: Model quietly de-emphasized
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#WillyWoo (on-chain analyst)
• Prediction: Multiple cycle-timing and price-level calls
• Outcome: Some trends right, short-term prices wrong
• Reality: Even good data ≠ precise timelines
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Raoul #Pal (macro investor)
• Prediction: $250k+ “inevitable” in near-term cycles
• Outcome: Timelines missed
• Shift: Now focuses on long-term adoption narratives
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Cathie #Wood (ARK Invest)
• Prediction: $500k–$1M long-term (with institutional adoption)
• Outcome: Time horizon continually extended
• Key detail: No short-term accuracy claims
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Max #Keiser (media personality)
• Prediction: $100k, $200k, $400k+ by various near-term dates
• Outcome: Missed timelines
• Pattern: High conviction, low timing accuracy
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Countless “experts” & headlines
• “$100k by end of year” → every bull market
• “$1M by next halving” → every cycle
• “This time is different” → always wrong
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🧠 THE ONLY CONSISTENT PATTERN
• Short-term price predictions fail
• Long-term adoption trends hold
• Predictors face zero downside
• Attention merchants get rewarded
Bitcoin has rewarded:
• people who held
• people who built
• people who ignored prophets
Not:
• people who chased timelines