(FYI: This article was polished using AI, I'm not a great writer)
The Great Partition
In 1916, two diplomats—Mark Sykes and François Georges-Picot—sat in a room and drew lines across a map of the Middle East, carving the remains of the Ottoman Empire into British and French spheres of influence. Today, a century later, the ink is drying on a new, unwritten map. We are witnessing the Great Partition of the 21st Century, a "multipolar settlement" where the world’s major powers are retreating into fortified regional fiefdoms.
The Return of the Fortress Americas
The U.S. intervention in Venezuela and the formalization of the "Trump Corollary" to the Monroe Doctrine mark the end of the "Global Policeman" era. Washington has signaled that its primary concern is no longer the liberal order in the Balkans or Central Asia, but the absolute security of the Western Hemisphere. By removing Maduro and targeting "non-hemispheric" influences (namely Chinese and Russian assets in South America), the U.S. is effectively building a "Fortress Americas." In this new order, the U.S. trades its global overreach for regional hegemony, essentially telling the world: "The West is ours; do as you wish with the rest."
The Eurasian Consolidation
Across the Atlantic, the lines are being redrawn with blood. Russia’s persistent offensive in Ukraine, now entering its fifth year, suggests a brutal "settlement" where Moscow seeks a permanent buffer zone. Meanwhile, China’s "Justice Mission 2025" drills around Taiwan and President Xi’s New Year's declaration that reunification is "unstoppable" point toward a "gravity-well" strategy. Rather than a messy global war, Beijing is using its massive economic and military weight to pull the Indo-Pacific into its orbit, asserting a sphere of influence that mirrors the U.S. stance in the Caribbean.
The BRICS and the Middle Eastern Hub
While the 1916 Sykes-Picot agreement cut the Middle East into pieces for Europe, the 2026 version sees the region consolidating under a different banner. With BRICS+ expanding to include Iran, the UAE, and Egypt, and the development of the North-South Transport Corridor, the Middle East is transitioning from a "collection of colonies" to a "multipolar hub." China and the Gulf states are no longer just trading oil; they are building the infrastructure of the new world—ports, AI networks, and local-currency trade routes—that bypass Western financial systems entirely.
The Red Sea Chokepoint: Yemen and Somalia as Geopolitical Toll-Gates
Under the new multipolar settlement, the Bab al-Mandab Strait—the narrow neck connecting the Indian Ocean to the Red Sea—has become the ultimate prize. In Yemen, the 2026 push by the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC) to consolidate an independent South Yemen, effectively splitting the country, is the "Sykes-Picot" logic in its purest form. By securing Aden and the Hadramout oil fields, this move ensures that the "maritime empire" of the BRICS+ network (specifically the UAE and China) controls the gates of global trade. Simultaneously, the escalation in Somalia and the rising prominence of Somaliland serve a similar purpose: creating a series of "fragmented but stable" client states along the Horn of Africa. These aren't just local uprisings; they are the construction of a multipolar blockade-proof corridor. If the U.S. has its "Fortress Americas," the China-led Global South is building a "Sovereign Sea Path" where Western naval dominance is replaced by a network of regional ports and loyalist regimes.
The New Settlement
We are not seeing the end of history, but the end of the "Global Village." The world is being partitioned into high-walled gardens. Whether it is the U.S. in Venezuela, Russia in the Donbas, Middle East's straits, or China in the South China Sea, the message is the same: the era of universal rules is over, and the era of the Regional Pole has begun.
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