Introduction When it comes to managing my own investments, I prefer to build a portfolio around a small number of longer duration themes rather than around predefined asset class buckets or mechanical diversification targets. For me, diversification is an outcome of owning exposures driven by different structural forces, not a goal in itself achieved by mixing labels like equities, bonds, or alternatives.
By profession I am a portfolio manager, but in my personal portfolio I do not spend much time targeting precise valuations, entry levels, or individual company selection. Those tools matter in institutional settings with benchmarks and short-term accountability, but they are far less useful when the objective is to compound capital across decades. I find it more robust to focus on the underlying direction of travel in the global economy and to accept volatility along the way rather than trying to optimise timing.
My basic approach to investing At a high level, my approach is to identify a handful of forces that I believe are highly likely to shape economic outcomes over the next twenty to thirty years, and to express those views through simple, durable exposures. Once a theme is in place, the goal is not to trade it actively, but to let it work through cycles, drawdowns, and changing narratives, adjusting only when the structural premise itself breaks.
This framework is deliberately opinionated and concentrated. It accepts that being early is often the price of capturing long-term trends, and that along the way there will be bubbles and volatility. The real risk is not short-term volatility, but failing to stay invested in the forces that ultimately drive value creation over time.
Theme 1: Monetary debasement (50%)
The core anchor of my portfolio is exposure to assets that benefit from monetary debasement in all fiat currencies. Structural fiscal deficits, high government debt in developed markets, demographic pressures, and political constraints make sustained fiscal discipline unlikely across most developed economies. The long term bias remains toward negative real rates, and balance sheet expansion any time we encounter even the slightest bit of stress. Markets will not be allowed to sell off in a meaningful way. Assets that are scarce, difficult to dilute, or anchored in real economic value rather than fiat promises form the foundation of this allocation.
Suggested trades: Bitcoin and XAU ie (physical) gold
Theme 2: Tech, artificial intelligence, automation (20%)
Technological progress, particularly in artificial intelligence, automation, and computing power, represents one of the few credible sources of sustained productivity growth in aging and labor constrained economies. While valuations will fluctuate and individual corporate winners will change over time, the overall direction is clear. More processes will be automated, more decisions will be augmented by machines, and capital will increasingly substitute for labor. This theme focuses on maintaining long duration exposure to this productivity frontier.
Suggested trades: QQQ and BOTZ ETFs
Theme 3: Weaker dollar (7.5%)
Over the medium term, the US dollar imo faces structural headwinds driven by persistent fiscal and current account deficits, an eroding interest rate advantage, and inability to maintain global reserve status indefinitely. Europeans own some 20% of the US stock market (albeit partly FX hedged) and won’t stick around in numbers if the US makes a move on Greenland. Cyclical dollar strength will continue to emerge during periods of global stress, but the central case is one of gradual depreciation rather than abrupt decline. Positioning for a weaker dollar therefore reflects a tilt toward assets, regions, and balance sheets that tend to benefit from dollar softness and reflationary global conditions.
Suggested trades: EEM and EMLC ETFs
Theme 4: Europe infrastructure and defense (7.5%)
Europe is in the early stages of a structural shift toward higher strategic spending, particularly in infrastructure, energy security, and defense. Decades of underinvestment combined with heightened geopolitical risk have forced a reassessment of fiscal priorities across the region. While Europe remains less dynamic than the US on many growth metrics, targeted sectors linked to sovereign spending, rearmament, and physical infrastructure renewal offer a clearer demand backdrop that is less sensitive to the economic cycle than traditional European growth narratives. My thesis here is basically a sort of Korea/Taiwanification of Europe. Not because they want to, but because they must.
Suggested trades: NATO and WDEF ETFs (European defense)
Theme 5: Energy, power, and resource constraints (7.5%)
The global economy is becoming increasingly constrained by the availability of reliable, affordable energy and critical resources at a time when demand is accelerating. Electrification, data centers, artificial intelligence, and industrial reshoring are all highly energy intensive, while new supply faces long lead times, regulatory hurdles, and political resistance. Years of underinvestment have left limited spare capacity across many parts of the energy system. Nuclear power fits naturally within this theme as one of the few scalable sources of stable baseload energy capable of supporting long term growth in power demand. This theme focuses on the strategic value of energy reliability rather than short term commodity price cycles.
Suggested trades: XLE and NLR ETFs
Theme 6: Healthcare, aging, and longevity (7.5%)
Demographic trends in developed economies point toward steadily aging populations, rising dependency ratios, and structurally higher healthcare spending. This creates a durable demand base that is largely insulated from economic cycles and supported by strong political incentives to maintain access and quality of care. Advances in biotechnology, diagnostics, and data driven medicine are improving outcomes, but they are more likely to increase overall system spending than reduce it. This theme emphasizes long term exposure to healthcare and longevity related industries that benefit from demographic inevitability rather than discretionary growth.
Suggested trades: XLV, IHI, LNGR ETFs