$MSTR Convertible Notes - Conversion Eligibility Watch And there you have it. Every single bond with the exception of the latest issued 2029 is now eligible for early conversion by the bond holders. This represents $4,263,750,000 in bonds eligible to convert and 24,694,649 shares (at current prices a potential boost of $9.3B in market cap). No, this does not mean there is some massive sell pressure coming to the market imminently. These bonds are all in very different positions, so not all of them would be incentivized to convert early right at this moment. Even if they were to convert early, it is likely that by the time it happens most of the selling would have been done along the way when the convertible arb shops put their shorts on (ultimately fully hedging out the equity risk) and receiving the shares would simply net out their short positions and be largely market neutral (convertible arbs have typically been ~80% of the holders of these bonds). So don't buy in to the fear about some massive market dumping of shares coming, it's just not reality. What will I post about now? Nasdaq 100 tracking, done. Early Conversions, done. I guess I may be quiet for a bit 🤣 2027 Notes ($1.05B / 7,330,050 Shares) Holder Early Conversion Eligible ✅ MSTR Cash Redemption Eligible ✅ 2028 Notes ($1.01B / 5,513,489 Shares) Holder Early Conversion Eligible ✅ MSTR Cash Redemption Eligible ❌ 2030 Notes ($800M / 5,341,600 Shares) Holder Early Conversion Eligible ✅ MSTR Cash Redemption Eligible ❌ 2031 Notes ($603.75M / 2,594,310 Shares) Holder Early Conversion Eligible ✅ MSTR Cash Redemption Eligible ❌ 2032 Notes ($800M / 3,915,200 Shares) Holder Early Conversion Eligible ✅ MSTR Cash Redemption Eligible ❌ Reminder: This is only tracking bonds in the early conversion eligibility countdown window. There is no obligation for the bond holders to convert or for MSTR to redeem for cash (2027 are the only notes eligible for cash redemption).

There are a ton of questions today asking when will Saylor lay off so share price can rise. I'm getting the sense the bull run recently brought people's time frames in too short and it's causing some pain right now. Please try to avoid making emotion driven investing decisions while price is running hard, nothing goes up in a straight line forever (that wouldn't be healthy). The entire design of this equity is that it will rise and fall generating the volatility Wall St loves. It's the product they've created. To give you my perspective, I don't think there is likely much laying off the ATM until at a minimum the end of the year. At this stage it seems he has a target for at least 500,000 BTC by year end and at current prices that means he'll need ~$8B in additional purchases over the next 3 weeks. It's possible $3B comes from a new convertible debt offering before the year closes, so that would mean he'd need $5B from the ATM over 3 weeks. Right now they have $9.19B left on the ATM, so by year end this would bring them down to ~$4.19B. My hunch from there is they ease off the pace a bit and he will try to use that $4.19B up in time for Q4 earnings call where they will likely announce their next updated plan. This is just my speculation, but it leads me to believe that we should temper our share price expectations over the next 3 weeks (although all that Bitcoin buying will certainly have some impact on the spot BTC price that could trickle into the shares). It's still possible that they allow the shares to breathe for a few days if they get into the QQQ and they let the mNAV expand again so his next ATM uses are more accretive to BTC Yield, but it all depends on their internal goals, execution timelines and expectations for the markets over the next 3 weeks. They are on a blistering pace right now unlike anything we have seen before and the stock just made a massive repricing rocketing to new all time highs over the the last couple months. We can't lose sight of that. Patience is key here. We know the strategy and the design, we just need to let it play out and not get ourselves caught in a position where we are 100% directionally correct long term but still lose by putting unnecessary timing risk into our investments (i.e. really short term options trades).

$MSTR Convertible Notes - Conversion Eligibility Watch Highlight - Just more close above $302.54 left before all 5 of these notes are eligible for early conversion by the bond holders leaving only the 2029 notes ineligible moving forward. That is $4,263,750,000 in bonds eligible for conversion to shares at any time. Pretty crazy! 2027 Notes ($1.05B / 7,330,050 Shares) Holder Early Conversion Eligible ✅ MSTR Cash Redemption Eligible ✅ 2028 Notes ($1.01B / 5,513,489 Shares) Holder Early Conversion Eligible ✅ MSTR Cash Redemption Eligible ❌ 2030 Notes ($800M / 5,341,600 Shares) Holder Early Conversion Eligible ✅ MSTR Cash Redemption Eligible ❌ 2031 Notes ($603.75M / 2,594,310 Shares) Holder Early Conversion Eligible ❌ MSTR Cash Redemption Eligible ❌ We have had 19 closes above the $302.54 130% trigger price in the last 19 day. We need 1 more close above $302.54 over the next 11 trading days. Tick tock. 2032 Notes ($800M / 3,915,200 Shares) Holder Early Conversion Eligible ✅ MSTR Cash Redemption Eligible ❌ Reminder: This is only tracking bonds in the early conversion eligibility countdown window. There is no obligation for the bond holders to convert or for MSTR to redeem for cash (2027 are the only notes eligible for cash redemption).

I have received a lot of questions about whether $MSTR could simply use the ATM to raise cash to redeem the 2027 notes. The short answer is no. There are protections put in place for the bond holders to protect the value of their investment. Even if MSTR calls for redemption of the bonds early, the bond holders have the protection to elect to receive their shares. They are not forced into a cash redemption which would lose all the value of their now "in the money" call option. Without these protections, nobody would buy the bonds. Imagine you bought a bond with a 0% coupon (i.e. no interest payments) and if the stock performed well the company could just pay you back your original investment and move on so you got zero benefit from your investment. Bad deal, right? You locked your capital up, and got absolutely no benefit for doing so. This is why these protections are put in place. Not only that, if MSTR is the one to call the redemption early they actually will end up owing the bond holders MORE shares than anticipated at origination due to the "make whole provision". For more details of the mechanics, check out this post 👇 View quoted note →

$MSTR Convertible Notes - Conversion Eligibility Watch Highlight - The 2032 Notes are now eligible for early conversion by the bond holders! That means 4/6 existing bonds are eligible for conversion at anytime. The 2031 notes are on track to be eligible by close of markets on Tuesday (12/10). The newly issued 2029 bonds are not yet eligible for an early conversion countdown and thus are excluded currently from this tracking list. 2027 Notes ($1.05B / 7,330,050 Shares) Holder Early Conversion Eligible ✅ MSTR Cash Redemption Eligible ✅ 2028 Notes ($1.01B / 5,513,489 Shares) Holder Early Conversion Eligible ✅ MSTR Cash Redemption Eligible ❌ 2030 Notes ($800M / 5,341,600 Shares) Holder Early Conversion Eligible ✅ MSTR Cash Redemption Eligible ❌ 2031 Notes ($603.75M / 2,594,310 Shares) Holder Early Conversion Eligible ❌ MSTR Cash Redemption Eligible ❌ We have had 18 closes above the $302.54 130% trigger price in the last 18 day. We need 2 more closes above $302.54 over the next 12 trading days. 2032 Notes ($800M / 3,915,200 Shares) Holder Early Conversion Eligible ✅ MSTR Cash Redemption Eligible ❌ Reminder: This is only tracking bonds in the early conversion eligibility countdown window. There is no obligation for the bond holders to convert or for MSTR to redeem for cash (2027 are the only notes eligible for cash redemption).