China Morning Missive
Called it yesterday. It will be the TikTok for Taiwan trade deal.
So transactional, and so transparent, is Trump that the Chinese side knows how badly he wants to acquire the American TikTok platform. There’s also the issue of all the political contributions made to Trump by the very same American investors which actually own TikTok.
If there were any proof needed, here it is. The Taiwanese President has just ben denied a stop over visa to the United States.
This will be framed as a decision made to ensure smooth negotiations which are ongoing in Stockholm. There is some truth to that. Still, what I am all but certain is underway is an agreement whereby Trump agrees to the Chinese terms of publicly recommitting to the original – and still in place – 1979 normalization of relations “One China” policy. In return, Trump gets TikTok.
The talking heads in Washington are already up in arms over Trump’s decision to permit Nvidia to resume sales of the H20 chips into China. Somehow this has been viewed as an egregious short sightedness by Trump. The fact of the matter, however, is that Trump had no choice. No Nvidia chips, no rare earths. And it was the American side that was suffering acute dependencies on access to rare earths. The Chinese would definitely want the H20 chips but were doing just fine without access.
I can’t even begin to imagine the outcry when this TikTok for Taiwan agreement is made.
