China Morning Missive (from jolly old England)
Third times a charm??!! For me, the entire TikTok episode is a reflection of America’s actual ability to “quit” China. And it isn’t looking all the good as Trump kicks the can yet again.
Here again, the Beijing leadership sees clearly all of the various pressure points which can be applied. Rare earths was just one example. There are dozens more.
Trump to extend TikTok deadline for third time, pushing decision out another 90 days
China Morning Missive
First, before anything else, American policy makers need to stop underestimating the Chinese. This below is just one example of how true ingenuity is applied to overcome obstacles. This sort of activity happens all the time.
China Late Night Missive
It’s called brute force innovation. The Americans attempt to contain China through export controls on chips and advanced technology and in return China’s STEM army takes up the challenge.
Same goes for DeepSeek and Xiaomi and more names than I can even recall.
Thing is, I recall vividly that this was how America operated back in the 90s. Damn.
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/us-says-chinas-huawei-cant-make-more-than-200000-ai-chips-2025-2025-06-12/
Meanwhile in Asia, Pete Hegseth is committing to a further “let’s surround China more” strategy.
Rather interesting that this map doesn’t highlight S. Korea or Taiwan.
This new Trump administration sure has a far more of a warmonger-vibe than the last go around.
No question it is a mad dash here in #China to get end product out of the supplier facility and into a shipping container. The Chinese export engine is truly humming.
Interestingly, American buyers are paying a premium to ensure that orders are prioritized. This, on top of the current 55% tariff. Can’t see how prices on the US don’t trend higher throughout the send half of the year.
American hubris indeed. In light of the current America/China trade tensions and the on again, off again talks, you’ll find the following clip highly instructive. It is from an appearance made on CNBC in New York and is from all the way back in 2018.
Pay close attention to the questions raised and to the answers given. Ask yourself, why didn’t American leadership (political and commercial) take the situation far more seriously? Moreover, should there be any expectation that events will play out any differently today? Copy/paste the comments from this segment, word for word, and what it is you’ll find is that American policy makers and business executives have learned nothing over six years.
The Faustian bargain is real, IP theft is a red herring and, ultimately, America’s dependency on China, shown clearly in this clip and during the first Trump administration, has only grown more extreme.
China Morning Missive
There is a great deal to address in the supposed “done deal” announced between China and the US. For right now what I want to highlight is the issue of tariffs.
The headlines have blared that an agreement was reached for American to place 55% tariffs on Chinese imports with China holding tariffs on American imports at 10%.
This is EXACTLY the very same level of tariffs the parties agreed to last month in Geneva. There is nothing new here.
For the purpose of optics, what the American side has done is include the tariff rates put in place back in 2018 to the grand total announced yesterday. 25% from 2018 on all Chinese imports, 10% added this year (after being reduced from +100% in April mind you) and an additional 20% punitive tariff for fentanyl.
To conclude, when it comes to tariffs the parties are exactly where they were even before the talks commenced in London.
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/lutnick-says-us-tariff-levels-china-wont-change-2025-06-11/
