China Morning Missive This is all about capital flows. It should also be noted that the proposed tax exemption goes beyond just “crypto”. Hong Kong has struggled for a very long time to carve out a new business model. Acting as a “gateway to China” ended with the turnover in 1997 and ever since the city has stumbled along looking for a path forward. There is the district possibility of China using Hong Kong to play the role of interloper. I continue to be of the mind that China has remained strategically involved in the entire Bitcoin ecosystem even with the 2021 mining “ban”. Finally, I would propose that Game Theory has been playing out ever since that ban only the larger G7 nations had no idea that it was taking place. BRICS, Global South, etc ….. it all just fits very nicely alongside a national Bitcoin stratagem. https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/hong-kong-offer-crypto-tax-exemption-hedge-funds-family-offices-2024-11-28/

Given that past is prologue, expect fuckery in price action during this week. Low volume American Thanksgiving week.

Pay attention. There’s a rather big meeting among #China’s leadership this week and will conclude on the 8th. Expect blaring headlines of some massive “stimulus”. Upwards of Rmb10tr. Also note, however, that this isn’t actually stimulus. Whatever number is announced, assuming there is one, will be for funds applied to (1) a bank recapitalization program and (2) expanding the debt swap program among local governments. This provides net zero economic support. Deleveraging remains the priority even if one type of debt is being recirculated into a new type of debt.

CNBC

China gears up for a big week as markets await U.S. elections and stimulus details

The size of China's highly anticipated stimulus plans will likely depend on the outcome of the U.S. presidential election, analysts say.

I realize this is from the Atlantic, and there's a very clear agenda, but these sorts of headlines and articles are very unhelpful when providing commentary on #China. The continued determination to find errors in how the Chinese government is enacting policy, both domestic and in foreign affairs, undermines the real issue at hand. The Chinese leadership fully understands what plagues the G7 "rules based order" and is working overtime to (1) protect itself from the inevitable fallout and (2) doing its part to hasten further instability. America, and its allies, need to understand this rather than making claims that China has sown the seeds of its own destruction. This is objectively false.

The Atlantic

Xi May Lose His Gamble

North Korean troops are in Russia. Is that really what’s best for Beijing?

Not many people listen to my #China commentary. For most, it’s deemed outside the norm. If Luke Gromen is the only one that takes these comments seriously then that is enough.

#China GDP for Q3 is out and it came in slightly better than expected at 4.6%. It’s all optics mind you and basically everyone just focuses on the topline data point without looking too much into the details. We are still watching play out the back and forth battle over whether the central government will finally announce some fiscal support. I remain very doubtful.

CNBC

China reports third-quarter GDP growth of 4.6%, slightly beating expectations

Beijing has faced public scrutiny over its ability to meet its own annual growth target of "around 5%."