The 10-year/3-month #Treasury yield spread is about to print a reversal doji on the 6-month chart. Typically recessions (shaded in red) begin when this spread moves substantially higher. Earlier this year, the NY #Fed, using this chart as a recession predictor, placed the odds of a U.S. #recession starting by May 2024 at 70%. This was the strongest recession signal in over 40 years. See more here:

The Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator

This model uses the slope of the yield curve, or the “term spread” between long- and short-term interest rates, to calculate the probability of...

A massive bearish shooting star is appearing on the quarterly chart of #SPY / #IWM The tail of the shooting star tagged the peak level reached during the Dotcom Bubble (depicted by the black line in the chart). It's likely that this ratio has peaked and is about to roll over. We may be at the start of what will be years of large-cap underperformance relative to small-cap. This does not necessarily mean that the Russell 2000 will rally from here on out, instead it's a warning that the large-cap stocks that comprise the SPY have a lot to lose in the coming recession -- even more than already hard-hit small-cap stocks. #SPX / #RUT / #smallcap / #mag7