I'm trying to understand how to anticipate space weather events. Please correct me if I have any if this wrong:
So, the sun spot region AR4294, an area of multiple and large sun spots, is rotating towards facing the earth. But, just because a sun spot is large doesn't mean it necessarily has magnetic complexity? And there's a way to calculate some probability and potential for various classes of flares, but no way to predict if we will have CMEs?
Can we predict anything past three days out? And is the angle of the flare as it hits earth's magnetic field also determinative of how intense the visual effects (auroras) will be? Is the class of flare the only metric we use to determine the viewing area for auroras?

