#Bitcoin price forecast update:
Although Bitcoin has seen a nice breakout to ATH, it needs to do a bit more work to fully invalidate the bearish path and prevent this breakout from turning into a nasty bull trap.
Path 1 🐻 : The bearish path remains possible as long as $121,100 isn’t crossed. The bulls couldn’t quite get there on the last impulse. Not crossing this level in the next month or so would make the bear path more likely. The path 1 could take a multitude of shapes but I drew what I think would be the most likely which is a slow sideway downtrend that could last up to the end of 2029 and reach sub $20K. The unusual length of this bearish path would be justified by a structure correcting 16 years of bull cycle down to the base of the fan formation (yellow lines).
Path 2 🐂 : The bullish path will require a demonstration of force from the bulls as there are still quite a lot of upward resistance above the current level particularly the upward trend line formed by the three tops of this bull market (white line) and the upward trend line from the fan that has formed over the last 16 years (yellow line). #BTC just tagged the latter and while it can reject from here and still cross it, I would like to see a shallow pullback to then come back with strength to breach it in a convincing fashion. Crossing the yellow, then the white trend lines would prove the strength of this bull market that could then certainly be qualified as the supercycle that would definitely put an end to the 4 years cycle model. In this scenario, I would expect a massive uptrend to around $270K from now to mid 2026, followed by a long period of consolidation until the end of 2027, then a final up leg that would end this five and a half year long bull cycle at around $290K. Crossing $110,970 would make this scenario significantly less likely but still possible with a deeper pullback. Crossing $89,300 would make this path very unlikely and it would be fully invalidated if $74,480 is breached.
I put both paths at an equal probability of 35% as the current invalidation levels remain untapped. Other alternative scenarios in between can play out although it’s unclear to me what those would look like. Probably, a lot of chops without a clear direction if I had to guess.
I’m expecting more clarity in which path becomes more likely in the next month or so.
#Trading #Tradestr
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