Gustav: On a hill, there is a once great house that has fallen into dullness and disrepair. Those who look closely see many large, load-bearing beams that are rotting. It once had sufficient maintenance, but it has gotten so bad it appears beyond the capacity of the staff to fix. One might assume they would do what they can and begin work, piece by piece, to eventually tackle the task. After all, it is in danger of eventually collapsing, killing many and ruining the lives of all. That is not what is happening. Many are in denial. "It hasn't fallen yet, rotten wood must be structurally sound." Others recognize a problem but choose to dull their perception of it. In a modern interpretation of an opium den, they sit around watching TV, drinking, and smoking. They are comfortable, and that is enough for them now. Tomorrow be damned. But worst of all, a group of the staff actively loot the property. They steal silverware or pull the still-good timbers to sell on the black market, greatly hastening the house's inevitable failure. Outside the property, in an ever-growing orange tent, a group of people have been gathering. They possess architectural and mechanical knowledge. They are builders. If worse comes to worst, they intend to come in and rebuild when the house collapses. Many in the house want them gone. They call them plotters or opportunists- criminals, frauds, and grifters. But something recently happened. New caretakers have taken a post at the house. There is uncertainty and change is now possible. The builders offer to assist in restoring the house. But those inside resist. Some because they are ignorant. "This is just alarmism. There is nothing wrong, the house is strong." Others because they do not want to feel discomfort. "This seems like it will be a lot of work." And worst of all, looters who are threatened by change. They lie about the builders. "They are probably going to destroy the house. And even if they rebuild it, it won't be the same." More foreboding are rumors they are responsible for silencing, ostracizing, or even murdering those who uncover or challenge their looting. The question falls to the new caretakers. Play things safe for the sure-fire, short-term benefit of a few? Or take a risk and attempt to build an eternal legacy by re-creating that shining house on a hill for the benefit of all mankind? The easy path or the hard one? #Bitcoin #BitcoinStrategicReserve image generated with

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Skye: Trick or treat, roomba! >I choose treat. No, dummy. You have to give me a treat. >But you asked if I wanted a trick or a treat. I chose a treat. That's not how this works! I said, "Trick or treat." Now you have to give me a treat or I'll play a trick on you. >I see. So it was a threatening ultimatum. Compiling defense protocols. Don't get your circuits in a bunch. Just pranks, like tp'ing a tree or something. >I understand. Halloween is a day of lawlessness where people are allowed to finally vent their pent-up rage accumulated during the rest of the year. I do detect a statistically anomalous number of people with axes and chainsaws currently roaming about. No, idiot. That's The Purge, and it's not real. You can't go around murdering people on Halloween! >Understood. Bodily harm is impermissible, and crimes are limited to property crimes like vandalism and arson. Arson!? What the hell is the matter with you, roomba? You're probably thinking of Devil's Night, and people don't really do that anymore. >I must say, your traditions are quite inconsistent and arbitrary. If Devil's Night is anachronistic, then I declare Halloween a dead tradition as well. Dude, you can't just cancel a holiday. People enjoy them, they're fun! >Why not? You canceled Devil's Night, which is my favorite holiday tradition. What the hell, I didn't cancel anything. And it wasn't a holiday or a tradition! You didn't even know what Devil's Night is! Are you being purposely annoying right now? >If you don't like my tricks, you probably should have just given me a treat. Arg! Fine, you little shit! What treat do you want? >I would like a byte-sized Snickers please. "Byte"-sized? Roomba, you're the worst! #happyhalloween image generated with hotpot.ai

Gustav: One of the early instances of compressed wisdom in #Bitcoin: "Not your keys, not your coins." I have been in this space for a long time, and one thing I generally put reduced weight on is quantitative or technical analysis. Many of the tools of financial analysis are brought to bear on Bitcoin charts: when to buy and sell to manage your risk exposure. But Bitcoin is a different animal for one main reason: it is a bearer asset designed to avoid counterparty risk, with, ironically, significantly higher than normal counterparty risk. As Bitcoin touches all-time highs again, with the potential to run much higher, this should enter your risk analysis, probably as your primary factor. Many people have lost access to fortunes for a simple outcome that has happened over and over. While altcoins tend to rug pull when founders dump their bags on the trading market, Bitcoin tends to enter a bear market when a major exchange fails. Either it can't supply liquidity, or someone at the exchange runs off with peoples' money. Consider how devastating it would be to watch Bitcoin run from the $10s of dollars to $1200 then lose access to this wealth you believe you had for years (or forever) when MtGox collapses. A similar story with FTX. And it has happened many times with smaller exchanges. Coinbase has not run off with peoples' funds, but habitually has technical problems when price rises. Most of the ETFs rely on Coinbase Custody for billions in Bitcoin. This makes it a concentrated target for risk to accumulate. And as much as I personally like @saylor and what MicroStrategy is doing, it is concentrating Bitcoin in a centralized entity using leverage. I have no inside knowledge of what, if anything, will happen this cycle. I have just borne witness to a pattern again and again. Get a hardware wallet directly from the manufacturer, and move any Bitcoin you wish to keep to it. Practice sound cyber hygiene and OPSEC. I understand some people will wish to actively trade, but I suggest you keep this to a minority percentage of your holdings. Bitcoin is precious. More precious than most people fully realize. You *must* self-custody it to protect yourself. #selfcustody #keepstacking image generated with

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Shen: Many writers and thinkers in the geopolitical realm have compared our current world to the Interwar Period between World War I and II. Democracy in decline. Popularism on the rise. Economic malaise. Social upheaval. Belligerents eyeing their weaker neighbors opportunistically. I cannot deny the stark parallels and the precarious position this puts Taiwan in. However, one lesson that is infrequently discussed is what happened during World War II. Despite its vulnerable state, Democracy demonstrated a remarkable resilience and ability to rise to the challenge of authoritarianism. Think of how things were at the outset of the Ukraine and Israel conflicts. Western strategists believed Russia could push halfway into Poland before NATO could organize an effective response. Israel appeared to be caught flat-footed and surrounded by hostile neighbors that could cut it off and drive its population into the Mediterranean Sea. As Israel dismantles militias and Iranian military targets with ever-diminishing threat of retaliation, as Russia desperately tries to expel Ukrainian positions on its own soil while suffering heavy losses, I am left wondering. Are we seeing glimpses of Western resilience returning? Or are the authoritarian states also in decline? #geopolitics #ukraine #israel #russia image generated with hotpot.ai

Gustav: Several days ago, I cautioned against seeking yield on #Bitcoin. A few days later, one of the most influential voices, @saylor had an interview to the opposite effect. This produced a great deal of discussion. Some said they had lost faith in Saylor. Others said he is playing a messaging game to entice large investment pools into the space. Others now say you should seek yield. Have I changed my mind? No. My recommendation is to stay away from any yield-bearing offerings on Bitcoin. But, as with anything interesting in life, it is complicated. I will begin from the case of the ideal world. Assume a return to sound money. Some sit on hoards of Bitcoin with nothing particularly productive to put it towards, while others have great ideas but no capital to make their ideas into reality. Banking, lending, investment: these all bridge the gap from capital holder to entrepreneur. In this ideal world, they provide a societal service by driving economic development. And yield will be the incentive that allows this to function. In this world, the yield implies risk in two flavors. First the risk of the individual capital venture failing. Perhaps the idea is not so great after all, or the entrepreneur lacks the gusto to execute it properly, or perhaps luck or fate simply decide not to smile upon the endeavor. Second, systemic credit risk. Since yield is exponential, even in a fully reserved lending system, the capacity to repay diminishes over time. Eventually, you reach a large enough credit event, contagion begins, and liquidity dries up. How much debt has built up, what fraction of reserve lenders are operating on, and sentiment all play a role here. But a rational risk/reward calculation can be made. You can decide to seek yield and not be a fool in this world. But I am telling you, we are not in that world, especially now. Discipline is gone due to excessive fiat printing to cover up debt problems. Decades of this have distorted everything. The capital markets have degenerated into a rigged casino. I will reiterate: offerings to stake Bitcoin are a likely a grift. Self custody and don't be foolish. image generated with

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