BITCOIN’S SCARCITY: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS WITH TRADITIONAL ASSET CLASSES / Blog / By Matthew J At the core of Bitcoin’s value proposition lies its scarcity, a unique feature that sets it apart from traditional asset classes. Unlike fiat currencies subject to inflationary pressures from central authorities, Bitcoin boasts a capped supply of 21 million, a predetermined scarcity embedded in its protocol that shields it from manipulation by any central entity. Historically, gold has been esteemed for its limited supply and inherent scarcity, but Bitcoin takes scarcity to new heights by offering unmatched transparency and predictability. Every four years, or 210,000 blocks, Bitcoin undergoes a halving, reducing the rate at which new coins are created and steadily approaching the fixed supply limit of 21 million. Comparing Bitcoin to traditional assets like stocks and bonds reveals a marked contrast in supply dynamics. Stocks can be influenced by corporate decisions to issue new shares, buy back existing ones, or pay dividends, introducing an element of uncertainty. Similarly, the bond market is subject to central banks’ decisions to issue or retire bonds, further complicating supply predictability. To grasp the significance of Bitcoin’s scarcity, consider its finite digital supply in contrast to the ever-growing US National Debt. The debt has surged by almost $3 trillion in the past year alone, a staggering increase when compared to the fixed supply of Bitcoin. The ratio of this increase to Bitcoin’s capped supply underscores the scarcity of the cryptocurrency and contributes to the argument for a continued rise in its price. As of now, we find ourselves at less than 1% adoption, with less than 7% of Bitcoin left to be mined over the next 116 years. There are currently 40 million wallets with a non-zero balance, an adoption rate of approximately 0.75% when compared to the total addressable market of 5.3 billion internet users. Breaking down the wallet distribution, 12 million hold 0.01 Bitcoin, 4.5 million hold 0.1 Bitcoin, and 1 million hold a whole Bitcoin. This suggests that while there may never be as many whole Bitcoin holders as the current number of deca-millionaires, Bitcoin’s distribution is broadening. Remarkably, Bitcoin has swiftly risen to become the 16th largest currency globally in just 15 years, achieving this feat with less than 1% adoption within its total addressable market. Looking ahead, predictions suggest that by the estimated halving around 2028, Bitcoin could ascend to become one of the top 7 largest currencies, with a potential scenario where it reaches the 5th position. This rapid ascent underscores the growing recognition of Bitcoin’s scarcity and its transformative impact on the global financial landscape. TLDR: 3 trillion (National Debt 1yr increase) / 21 million (bitcoin)= 142,857.143 The US Debt has increased by 142,857.143 times as many dollars in the last year as all the bitcoin that will ever be in existence. 3/32 halving’s have occurred (9.375% only about 10% of the way through halving’s) 93% of supply in first 15 years, and a price that went from 0 to a top of $69k in 2021. The Remaining 7% of supply will be mined over next 116 years. There are currently 40 million wallets with non-zero balance, with 1.2 million daily active addresses. The total addressable market is about 5.3 billion people (internet users). If you take the 40 million wallets with a non-zero balance, and divide it by the total addressable market of 5.3 billion people… you get a current adoption rate of approximately 0.75% We are at less than 1% adoption with less than 7% of bitcoin remaining to be mined over the next 116 years. 12 million wallets hold 0.01 bitcoin 4.5 million wallets hold 0.1 bitcoin 1 million wallets hold 1 bitcoin. This is likely between 200k-500k individual people, most people have more than one wallet. There will never be as many whole coiners as the current number of deca-millionaires. Currently bitcoin is ranked the 16th largest currency in the world, after only being around for about 15 years, and with less than 1% adoption by total addressable market. https://www.fiatmarketcap.com/ I predict that before the estimated halving around 2028, that bitcoin will reach top 7 largest currency and I could even a scenario where it reaches #5 by 2028.
https://bitcoinveterans.org/bitcoins-scarcity-a-comparative-analysis-with-traditional-asset-classes/
Unpopular opinion: SEC is delaying bitcoin ETF to fight off the 💩 coin avalanche of ETF proposals that would follow.... If you look at the 💩 coin tokens they frequently mention, they are mostly fund tokens that are held by Grayscale and the like... They are trying to prevent a tsunami of 💩 coin ETF's.... it's not even about them fighting bitcoin.
https://bitcoinveterans.org/proof-of-work-hash-rate-computational-power/
Intro: Bitcoin, operating on the principles of mathematics and cryptography, relies on key concepts such as digital signatures, hash functions, and the intricate relationship between hash rate and proof-of-work mining. This short article aims to elucidate these concepts and their significance in securing the bitcoin network. Hash rate: Hash rate, a pivotal metric in the world of cryptocurrencies, measures the computational power employed to process and secure the bitcoin network. The security of bitcoin hinges on the mathematical properties of cryptographic algorithms, ensuring the network's resilience against manipulation. Higher hash rates indicate increased computational speed in solving complex mathematical problems/puzzles, thereby enhancing the security of the network. Proof-of-Work (Mining): Mining in the bitcoin network involves solving intricate mathematical problems, referred to as hash puzzles, through computational power. Miners engage in a competitive race to be the first to solve these puzzles, earning the right to add a new block to the blockchain. The hash rate, akin to the speed of solving these puzzles, plays a crucial role in determining the efficiency and security of the network. The current mining reward, or block reward is 6.25 bitcoin. This will reduce to 3.125 in 2024, this is called the "halving", which occurs every 210,000 blocks (approximately 4 years). Hash Functions: Bitcoin employs cryptographic hash functions (SHA-256), to generate unique, fixed-size hash codes from input data. Blocks in the blockchain are linked through the hash of the previous block, creating an immutable chain. This cryptographic structure ensures the security of the blockchain, as altering a single block would require changing all the subsequent blocks. Computing Power: Computing power in the bitcoin network represents the collective strength and efficiency of connected computers. Analogous to workers in a factory, these computers aim to solve the cryptographic puzzles, validating transactions and creating new blocks. More powerful computers or a higher number of workers enhance the network's ability to solve puzzles quickly, contributing to overall efficiency. Relationship with Security: The correlation between hash rate and security is evident. A higher hash rate signifies a more secure network. As the computational power increases, the difficulty of manipulating the blockchain rises, safeguarding the integrity of transactions. Changes in Hash Rate: Fluctuations in hash rate indicate shifts in network activity. An increase implies heightened security, greater computational resources, and increased electrical power consumption. The bitcoin network adjusts mining difficulty approximately every two weeks (2,016 blocks), ensuring equilibrium as the hash rate evolves. Popular Proof-of-Work Blockchains: While various cryptocurrencies use the proof-of-work mining consensus, bitcoin commands about 99% of the total hash rate. Other PoW (Proof-of-Work) blockchains are dogecoin, litecoin, bitcoin cash, ethereum classic and bitcoin SV, often referred to as 💩 coins in the bitcoin community. The distribution of hash rates among these networks reflect their strength, security, and adoption. Conclusion: I'm summary, hash rate, PoW, and computing power are integral components of the bitcoin network's architecture. Higher hash rates contribute to increased security, efficient mining, and overall network robustness. Understanding these concepts is fundamental to comprehending the intricacies of the cryptocurrency landscape, especially in the context of bitcoin's dominance. I would be remiss to not mention the importance of PoW mining in regard to decentralization and its role in game theory. Looking Ahead: I am personally predicting a bitcoin hash rate of 1 Zettahash/second (1ZH/s) by the end of 2024. Over the last 24 months the bitcoin hash rate has exploded from 146EH/s to a peak of over 600 EH/s. I have a small bet with a friend and fellow Bitcoin Veteran that bitcoin will reach 1ZH/s by the bitcoin halving in 2024.
If Bitcoin does a 5x from the current price. The total bitcoin market cap would still be only about 1/3 the size of the gold market cap. We are so early. 😳🤯
There are currently 9 corporations that have a higher market cap than bitcoin. Bitcoin is the best money ever created. The "most valuable" company, Apple, ticker AAPL has a market cap 4x bigger than bitcoin. We are so early.
There are about 13 millionaires for every wallet address with 0.1 bitcoin today (about 59,400,000 fiat millionaires and about 4.5 million wallet addresses with 0.1 bitcoin) There will never be as many whole coiners as there are currently decamillionaires in fiat terms. (2.72 million decamillionaires currently)