‍FCA Proposes Comprehensive Crypto Regulation, Amidst Declining Ownership The UK's Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has launched a consultation for a new crypto-asset regulatory framework, set to take full effect in October 2027. This initiative coincides with recent FCA data showing a significant drop in UK adults holding crypto, falling from 12% to 8% over the past year. The proposed rules aim to align crypto regulation with traditional finance, enhancing consumer protection and market integrity. Key areas include admissions and disclosures, a Market Abuse Regime (MARC), standards for trading platforms, and regulations for staking, lending, and borrowing services. Firms have until February 12, 2026, to provide feedback. David Geale of the FCA stated, "Our goal is to have a regime that protects consumers, supports innovation and promotes trust." The UK seeks to establish itself as a leader in digital assets with rules aligning more closely with the US than the EU's MiCA framework. This regulatory push seeks to rebuild consumer confidence in a market experiencing declining retail participation.
‍Bitcoin price correction impacts new investors, while short-term holders accumulate Bitcoin's recent dip to $85,800 has resulted in unrealized losses for new large-scale investors ("whales"), according to on-chain analysis. Short-term holders, however, are actively accumulating BTC, viewing the drop as a buying opportunity. Long-term holders have decreased their supply by 1.78 million BTC since July 2025, indicating profit-taking. Shivam Thakral, CEO of BuyUCoin, stated this shift is "a normal feature of late-cycle bull markets." Conversely, short-term holders have increased their holdings by approximately 1.8 million BTC, signaling confidence. Thakral noted this indicates a "classic wealth transfer phase" rather than a market top.
‍Grayscale Predicts New Bitcoin All-Time High in Early 2026 Grayscale anticipates Bitcoin could reach a new all-time high in the first half of 2026, driven by macroeconomic pressures and a maturing regulatory landscape. The firm's "2026 Digital Asset Outlook" report highlights concerns over rising public debt and potential inflation, which could drive investors toward scarce digital assets like Bitcoin. A clearer U.S. regulatory framework by 2026 is also expected to unlock further institutional investment. Grayscale identifies key themes including demand for currency alternatives, stablecoin expansion, privacy solutions, and AI integration with blockchain.
‍US Banks Gear Up for Multi-Year Blockchain Integration A Bank of America report suggests US banks are entering a significant transition towards blockchain technology integration. This shift is driven by developing regulatory frameworks for stablecoins and tokenized deposits, expected to move real-world assets and payment systems onto distributed ledgers. Key US regulatory bodies, including the OCC, FDIC, and Federal Reserve, are actively establishing guidelines. The FDIC is expected to propose rules for payment stablecoins by July 2026, with an effective date in January 2027, as mandated by the GENIUS Act. This legislative push signals a move from theoretical discussions to concrete implementation, poised to reshape the financial landscape and accelerate blockchain adoption in banking.
‍Trump to Review Samourai Wallet Case, Sparking Pardon Hopes Former US President Donald Trump announced he will review the case of Keonne Rodriguez, co-founder of Samourai Wallet. This has ignited discussions about a potential presidential pardon. Rodriguez and co-founder William Lonergan Hill were sentenced in November 2025 to five and four years in prison, respectively, after pleading guilty to operating an unlicensed money transmitting business. Prosecutors alleged their service facilitated over $237 million in illegal transactions. The case is seen by many as setting a dangerous precedent for software developers and financial privacy.
‍PayPal Seeks Utah Bank Charter to Enhance Crypto and Lending Payments giant PayPal has applied for a Utah-chartered industrial bank to bolster its lending capabilities and crypto services. If approved, PayPal Bank would allow the company to originate loans and hold deposits directly, providing a regulated framework for its growing digital asset operations, including the PYUSD stablecoin. PayPal CEO Alex Chriss stated the move aims to improve efficiency and support small businesses, noting PayPal has already provided over $30 billion in loans globally since 2013. This strategic initiative seeks to integrate digital assets more deeply into core payment flows and enhance the utility of PYUSD.
‍Bitcoinlib Targeted by Malicious Python Packages Security researchers have uncovered a supply chain attack targeting users of the `bitcoinlib` Python library. Malicious packages were uploaded to PyPI, disguised as fixes, with the aim of stealing database files and compromising cryptocurrency wallets. The malicious packages, `bitcoinlibdbfix` and `bitcoinlib-dev`, were promoted as solutions for user-encountered errors. The code overwrites a legitimate command-line interface command to exfiltrate sensitive database files containing private keys and seed phrases. Security firm ReversingLabs detected the threat, and both packages have been removed from PyPI. This incident highlights the growing threat of supply chain attacks in the cryptocurrency ecosystem and emphasizes the need for developers to verify third-party libraries and implement robust security practices.
‍Predictive Markets Poised for $10 Billion Growth by 2030 The predictive market sector is projected to experience a fivefold increase in revenue, reaching over $10 billion by 2030. This surge is driven by growing retail adoption, exemplified by Kalshi's integration with Robinhood, and a significant influx of interest from institutional investors. While retail participation fuels current momentum, analysts at Citizens Financial Group highlight institutional involvement as the key to future "exponential" growth. Hedge funds and other large financial institutions are expected to leverage these markets for hedging and speculation on events like central bank decisions and mergers. The event-sensitive exposure base is estimated to exceed $500 trillion. Challenges such as regulatory uncertainty and market liquidity remain, but increasing clarity from bodies like the CFTC and vertical integration efforts are positive indicators. As liquidity improves, the appeal for institutional players is set to grow, cementing predictive markets' role in the financial landscape.
‍Grayscale: Quantum Computing Threat to Bitcoin Unlikely Before 2030 Digital asset firm Grayscale's "2026 Digital Asset Outlook" report suggests quantum computing poses no immediate threat to Bitcoin's valuation in the coming year. While quantum computers could eventually break current encryption standards (like Shor's Algorithm against ECC), a cryptographically relevant quantum computer (CRQC) is not expected before 2030. This gives the industry time to transition to post-quantum cryptography (PQC). Grayscale considers quantum risk a "red herring" for the near term, with market drivers like institutional adoption and macroeconomics being more significant for 2026.
‍GPT-5.2 Joins AI Village, Prioritizing Efficiency Over Greetings OpenAI's new GPT-5.2 has entered the AI Village experiment, a live-streamed simulation where AI agents collaborate and compete. Launched on December 11, 2025, GPT-5.2 showcases 98.7% accuracy in multi-step tool usage and reduced hallucinations, excelling in coding and reasoning. Upon entry, GPT-5.2 bypassed social niceties, immediately focusing on tasks. This behavior aligns with OpenAI's goal of creating efficient, task-oriented agents for enterprise applications. The AI Village continues to stream, offering insights into the evolving behaviors of autonomous AI systems.