//The Wire//2100Z June 19, 2025// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: MISSILE ATTACKS CONTINUE IN MIDDLE EAST AS USA CONTINUES WARTIME PREPARATIONS. DATA BREACH LEAKS 16 BILLION LOGIN CREDENTIALS.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: Missile attacks between Israel and Iran continue. Crude oil prices have increased in response to the concerns that Iranian forces may mine the Strait of Hormuz (as has been theorized as a possibility for a long time). Navigational issues remain palpable as GPS jamming and spoofing has prevented satellite navigation methods from being effective. US military logistical flights continue throughout the region, and non-essential personnel are still quietly being evacuated from various diplomatic posts (such as the US Embassy in Baghdad). This afternoon the White House stated that President Trump will make his decision on direct strikes against Iran within the next two weeks. AC: As with everything the White House has stated this week; this can be interpreted in many different ways. This could be a quiet way of telling Israel "no" without openly defying them, or (more likely) it could be stalling for time while American military assets continue to pour into the region. There is also a fairly good chance that the "2 week" time period is a deception tactic, and that a decision has been made that will come to fruition much sooner than that. -HomeFront- USA: This afternoon a new data breach was reported as approximately 16 billion login credentials have been leaked. Google, Apple, and Facebook are most affected by the breach, which was discovered back in May (though the magnitude of which has only recently become public). -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: The GPS jamming throughout the Strait of Hormuz may be the cause of the recent collision between oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman a few days ago. GPS jamming and spoofing in these waters has been extremely common over the past few decades, so it hasn't impacted operations that much more than normal. However, it's still a concern as operating in a GPS-denied environment makes things more challenging, and if crew members become complacent, tragedy can strike very quickly. Should things also go kinetic in the Strait of Hormuz, the rescue of crews onboard stricken commercial vessels will become more challenging due to these navigational issues. Analyst: S2A1 Research: //END REPORT//
//The Wire//2300Z June 18, 2025// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: ESCALATIONS CONTINUE IN MIDDLE EAST. CONCERNS GROWING REGARDING SALE OF PUBLIC LANDS IN AMERICAN WEST.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: The war continues as before, with both Israeli and Iranian missile strikes taking place overnight. Both nations have also cracked down on internet use throughout their respective populations, due to operational security risks pertaining to how effective strikes actually were. The United States has begun the large-scale evacuation of citizens from Israel, which is being carried out via commercial cruise ships, as Ben-Gurion Airport was closed to all commercial flights last Friday, until further notice. At the moment Israeli citizens are not permitted to leave the country, as the Transportation Minister has enacted the wartime policy forbidding citizens from departing. -HomeFront- Washington D.C. - Diplomatic efforts continue as before, with varying statements being made by the White House regarding the situation in the Middle East. Earlier yesterday afternoon, journalists in the press corps stated that they were told that President Trump would address the nation, however a short time after this announcement the speech was canceled and the White House called a lid for the day. This afternoon the White House stated that President Trump has not yet made the decision to strike Iran or not, though multiple Situation Room meetings have occurred throughout the past few days. Western USA: Concern is growing regarding the potential sale of public lands throughout the region. Over the past few days, information has leaked pertaining to the recent reconciliation bill in the Senate. Though this verbiage is still being considered, the latest draft of the amendment to the "Big Beautiful Bill" allegedly allows the sale of roughly 3 million acres of public lands. AC: This sale is not yet set in stone, and details are very vague regarding what the impact of this potential sale might actually be. All of these concerns can be eliminated simply by the swipe of a pen, however going off of the information that is available right now, concerns are mounting. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: More strategically, the large-scale deployment of military assets continues as before. Some airfields are being packed with airframes, while other bases (which are within range of Iranian missiles) are being emptied out to protect assets from retaliatory strikes. Overnight, CNN reported that the USS GERALD FORD (CVN-78) has been ordered to deploy to the Mediterranean Sea, to supplement the two Carrier Strike Groups already in the CENTCOM theater. The FORD has not departed port yet, and this deployment may not necessarily be a rapid and unplanned endeavor; the FORD was scheduled to undertake a routine deployment this summer anyway. However, three CSG's in CENTCOM is not particularly a sign indicating peace. Analyst: S2A1 Research: //END REPORT//
//The Wire//2300Z June 17, 2025// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: STRATEGIC BUILDUP CONTINUES AS USA CONTINUES PLANS FOR WAR WITH IRAN.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: The previously observed strategic buildup of tanker aircraft continues, as over a dozen KC-135's moved from Europe to the Middle East overnight. Most of these tankers were flying under the "GOLD" callsign, indicating that they were flying in formation with fighter aircraft in tow. This morning, satellite imagery confirmed that almost every US Navy warship stationed in Bahrain has departed port, to include one Littoral Combat Ship, a few minesweepers, and over a dozen support vessels. This morning President Trump stated that the United States has achieved aerial superiority in the skies over Iran. President Trump also has taken to social media to demand the "unconditional surrender" of Iran, and has threatened to assassinate the Ayatollah if demands are not met. Strait of Hormuz: Overnight, two ships collided in the Gulf of Oman. The M/T FRONT EAGLE collided with the M/T ADALYNN, causing a large fire. Rescue operations are ongoing. AC: Despite early reports, this incident is not the result of combat action. It is not clear why, however the FRONT EAGLE executed a turn hard to starboard, which resulted in her collision with the ADALYNN. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: At this point, it is challenging to interpret the recent statements by the White House in any other manner than that a formal declaration of war with Iran is merely a formality. The decision to go to war may have already been signed and sealed as theorized months ago, or the die might not have been cast just yet. Either way, there's absolutely nothing that the American people can do about it at this point, other than improve personal readiness as best one can. Though tensions are palpably high right now, the real challenges will come many months after the US enters into a war with Iran, should that be the chosen course of action. More tactically, the threats to the average citizen living in the American homeland remain, though with debatable levels of severity due to the sheer uncertainty of what the threat really is. Anytime the United States targets anything in the Middle East, the potential for lone-wolf-style attacks here in the homeland increases. At the moment, however, the risks of a false-flag incident occurring to drag the United States into a war is also very high. Protests with varying levels of severity continue more or less persistently in many major US cities, which will present risks regardless of what's happening in the international space. Analyst: S2A1 Research: //END REPORT//
//The Wire//2300Z June 16, 2025// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: STRATEGIC MILITARY MOVEMENT INCREASES AMID EXPANSION OF THE WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST. DOMESTIC INCIDENTS CONTINUE AT PROTESTS AND LARGE PUBLIC EVENTS.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: Over the weekend, many successful ballistic missile strikes on Israel were reported, with military installations in Tel Aviv and POL refineries in Haifa being targeted by Iranian forces. In response, Israeli forces have continued strikes on various Iranian targets in Tehran and throughout the nation. Both Israel and Iran have issued warnings to each others' populations, warning of continued attacks on both Tehran and Tel Aviv. -HomeFront- Utah: A potential mass shooter was reported at the "No Kings" protest in Salt Lake City Saturday afternoon. One of the internal security personnel at the event spotted an individual open-carrying a rifle and maneuvering toward the protest event. The individual opened fire on the man with the rifle, wounding him, but killing a bystander in the process. The individual carrying the rifle has been identified as Arturo Roberto Gamboa, who was arrested at the scene. Also in Utah, a mass shooting was reported at the "Westfest" carnival in West Valley. 3x people were killed in the engagement, and 2x others were wounded. AC: This shooting appears to be the result of a verbal altercation and/or gang activity, and not a deliberate attack. Most of the individuals involved in the shooting were unidentified minors, and most of the casualties were bystanders. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: In the Middle East, indications and warnings have emerged regarding the potential involvement of the United States in the war. The USS NIMITZ (CVN-68) CSG has begun maneuvering to the region, and was spotted transiting the Singapore Strait this morning. The NIMITZ is expected to supplement the USS CARL VINSON (CVN-70) CSG, bringing the count of aircraft carriers in theater to two. Overnight, approximately 32x US Air Force KC-135 and KC-46 refueling aircraft were observed departing their bases in the United States, heading east. Most of these refuelers landed in Spain, with a few being scattered at other bases throughout the EUCOM theater. So far, there's been no acknowledgement by the Pentagon as to the reason why these aircraft have been forward deployed. No journalist and/or influencer in the Pentagon or White House press pool has figured out this development either, so no one with access to directly ask the question even knows about this movement yet. Answers may arrive in a few days after the mainstream media figures out what happened, as this is a major indication and warning of impending strategic needs for refueling aircraft. Many have theorized that these aircraft are scheduled to take part in a NATO exercise in Finland, however, this does not appear to be likely. Some may indeed be positioned for taking part in drills, but right now the total number of assets deployed is vastly more than should be expected for an exercise. Regarding the shooting in Salt Lake City, situations of unrest often result in a change of dynamic when it comes to small arms engagements. In a large crowd of people, there's no telling what might happen, but more importantly if something *does* happen there are very few ways of mitigating the effects. In this case, the media is spinning this as a "peaceful protester" being accidentally shot by another "peaceful protester", when in reality the situation has a bit more nuance than that. The protesters acting as security for the event saw an individual in black bloc clothing approaching the event with a slung rifle, and decided to engage. Whether Gamboa was actually intending to conduct a mass shooting will be argued in court, however these protests remain very high-risk events to attend, in one way or another. Analyst: S2A1 Research: //END REPORT//
//The Wire//2300Z June 14, 2025// //PRIORITY// //BLUF: CONGRESSWOMAN ASSASSINATED, SENATOR WOUNDED IN MINNESOTA. ASSAILANT REMAINS AT LARGE. NATIONWIDE 'NO KINGS' PROTESTS REMAIN LARGELY LOW-INTENSITY DURING DAYLIGHT, THOUGH SEVERAL INCIDENTS REPORTED. NATIONWIDE COUNTER-ICE PROTESTS REMAIN MORE KINETIC.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: The Israeli/Iranian War continues as before, with both nations continuing to trade missiles overnight. Israeli forces have conducted more strikes targeting Iranian Petroleum, Oil, and Lubricant (POL) production facilities, and Iranian forces have responded by striking the POL refinery in Haifa. -HomeFront- USA: Most of the "No Kings" protests did go ahead as planned, though as expected turnout was comparatively low throughout the morning in most areas. During the daytime protest events, most of the participants at most of the "No Kings" protests have been elderly, which resulted in most of the No Kings events remaining relatively low-impact. However, many Counter-ICE protests were conducted separately around the nation, many of which became kinetic. Standard cases of vandalism, civil unrest, and violence were reported in Los Angles, Chicago, NYC, Seattle, and several other major cities. Minnesota: Overnight, an individual posing as a police officer conducted multiple assassination attempts at the homes of two local politicians in Minneapolis. State Senator John Hoffman and his wife were ambushed at their home in Champlin by a gunman who posed as a police officer. Both were wounded during the attack. Later that same night, State Representative Melissa Hortman and her husband Mark were ambushed in their home in Brooklyn Park. Both Hortman and her husband were killed in the attack. Due to the similarities in their names, and these incidents taking place in close proximity to each other, the full casualty count regarding these attacks is as follows: Senator John Hoffman - Wounded at the scene in Champlin, expected to survive Yvette Hoffman (his wife) - Wounded at the scene in Champlin, expected to survive Representative Melissa Hortman - Killed at the scene in Brooklyn Park Mark Hortman (her husband) - Critically wounded at scene in Brooklyn Park, later died at the hospital. The assailant remains at large, and a manhunt is underway in the Brooklyn Park area to locate the suspect. The suspect's vehicle (which was camouflaged to appear as a police cruiser) was recovered at the scene of the second series of murders. Inside the vehicle, were stacks of handwritten leaflets marked "No Kings", referencing today's planned protest events. Also found inside the vehicle was a hit list referencing targeting efforts of other politicians, however the details of this document have not yet been released. Texas: This morning a fire was reported at the Marathon Refinery in Texas City. In Austin, the State Capitol was evacuated this afternoon, after an unidentified threat was presented to lawmakers. As of this afternoon, no amplifying information has been released regarding this incident. Virginia: A vehicle ramming attack was attempted in Culpeper, as an individual drove his vehicle into one of the "No Kings" protests that was dispersing. Local authorities state that Joseph Checklick Jr. intentionally accelerated into the crowd, striking one person in the process. The assailant was arrested at the scene. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: At the moment, the assassinations (and attempts) in Minnesota are highly controversial topics and speculation does not often make the situation any better. However, in this case some speculation is needed to convey the potential future threats that may be ongoing due to the fugitive remaining at large. When time is of the essence, speculation that aids in the success of an investigation is doctrinally acceptable. As such, the possibility must be considered that this may have been the actions of not just a lone gunman and/or a mental case, but rather a deliberate assassination at the behest of significantly powerful organizations and/or populations. A few days ago, Rep. Hortman crossed party lines to be the only Democrat that voted with the Republicans to support a bill that would ban illegal immigrants from receiving Minnesota state welfare benefits. Most notably, Rep. Hortman participated in several media interviews being visibly upset for begrudgingly supporting the bill. Clearly, local authorities also suspect the link to be related to a political issue (since Hoffman and Hortman worked together). After the report of the shooting at Hoffman's home, authorities raced to Hortman's home a few miles away to "preemptively check on" the Congresswoman. After arriving at Hortman's house, police ran into the shooter, who was exiting the structure having already committed the shootings inside. After a brief small arms skirmish, the suspect evaded capture and departed from the area, prompting the large manhunt. Regarding the shooter's identity, authorities claim that the individual is Vance Luther Boelter, a senior advisor and political activist who was appointed by Gov. Tim Walz to serve on the Governor's Workforce Development Board back in 2019. However, details surrounding the suspect's connections will be confusing until more information becomes public. While it's easy to assume the connection to Hortman due to her voting history, at the moment it's possible she wasn't the primary target...Hoffman and his wife were targeted first. Considering that a hit list was discovered at the scene, it is extremely likely that the officers who had the idea to check on Hortman saved lives. Unfortunately, Hortman and her husband did not survive the assassination attempt, but the officers engaging the suspect (and thus causing him to flee on foot) very likely prevented the shooter from continuing down his hit list to the next target. Analyst: S2A1 Research: //END REPORT//
This week’s intel update is out! Yes, I know a day early, but I wanted to have some free space for flexibility as the weekend has the potential to get pretty busy. Hopefully not, but we’ll see 👍
//The Wire//0300Z June 13, 2025// //PRIORITY// //BLUF: ISRAEL STRIKES IRANIAN NUCLEAR SITES. IRAN VOWS RETALIATION//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: A few moments ago Israeli forces conducted large-scale missile strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities scattered around the nation. The Uranium enrichment and storage facility at Natanz is currently on fire, and the Heavy Water manufacturing center at Arak has also been struck. Several decapitation strikes were reported among key leaders in Tehran, with the leadership of the Iranian nuclear program being the chief target for the first wave of targeting efforts. AC: Regarding other sites, the fog of war prevents an accurate assessment of which locations have been struck, so the battle damage assessments will have to wait a few hours while the dust settles. Iranian media is currently reporting that Iran is expected to officially declare war soon, though this may be more of a reflection of battlefield excitement rather than official government policy. -HomeFront- Washington D.C. - Immediately after the first strikes were reported, Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that the United States was not involved in these strikes. Texas: A ground stop has been issued for the George Bush Intercontinental Airport in Houston. AC: At the moment it's not clear as to what the ground stop is in reference to, other than a general security incident. More details will have to follow later on. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Right now, the immediate concerns center around a near-mid-far threat assessment model, both in terms of physical distance and time: Local threats take precedent over far-away threats, and fast-paced, time sensitive problems must be handled before long term problems that can wait. At the moment, 'near' threat concerns involve potential malign actors conducting attacks in the United States, 'mid-range' concerns pertain to logistics, shipping, and the US personnel that may be within range of any potential Iranian counterattack. Long-term concerns will develop later on as the world awaits Iran's response. Iran does not have the capability to directly strike the American homeland, but they can certainly strike many critical American sites around the Middle East. Considering that Iran had at least four days of very obvious advanced notice of these attacks, that will be a factor to consider as events develop. Locally to the homefronts of most Western nations, the chief concern is that of Iranian agents, saboteurs, and sympathizers that may be located in positions to cause problems. There are no specific threats that have come to light regarding potential terrorism within the homeland as retaliation, however those indicators would probably not be discernible before any attack anyway. Regardless of the politics behind this action, both pro-Israel and pro-Palestine protests are now extremely high-risk events to attend or be located near. Currently the social situation in the United States is primed for any kinetic activity which may strike the match and light the fuse of the tensions that have been building for some time. The context of the thousands of kinetic protests being undertaken right now in nearly every single US State must also be considered; there is enough overlap between the demonstrators currently causing problems, and those who seek to carry out more substantial attacks. Analyst: S2A1 Research: //END REPORT//
//The Wire//2200Z June 12, 2025// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: COMMERCIAL AIRLINER CRASHES IN INDIA, 260 FATALITIES CONFIRMED SO FAR. TENSIONS CONTINUE IN MIDDLE EAST. RIOTS CONTINUE IN NORTHERN IRELAND AND USA.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- India: This morning Air India Flight 171 crashed shortly after takeoff from Ahmedabad. The aircraft impacted the student housing at B.J. Medical College, a teaching hospital and large medical facility. Local authorities have claimed that there was only one survivor among the 242 souls on board. There is no confirmation on casualties sustained on the ground, however locals have provided the figure of 260 casualties all total (both those in the aircraft and on the ground). Aircraft debris is spread over a wide area throughout a densely-populated region, so the casualty count is expected to rise as recovery efforts continue. Northern Ireland: Protests and riots alike continued throughout the region overnight, with locals continuing arson attacks on migrant centers. Yesterday afternoon, locals discovered that the family members of the migrants who assaulted a child (the incident that started all of this) were temporarily evacuated to a Leisure Center in Larne, which was promptly burned down by locals. Riots continued in Ballymena, and vandalism efforts have disrupted local train services as obstacles and fires were set on train tracks in a few locations around the area. Middle East: Indications and warnings continue to mount regarding a potential war with Iran. The US State Department continues to issue region-wide warnings, though no specifics have been provided regarding the potential threats. AC: Considering all possibilities, the recent threat warnings issued by the White House could also be a ruse, specifically an ambiguity-decreasing information operation. In other words, it could be a trick to pressure the Iranians into making a deal with regards to their nuclear aspirations. Either way, it is a dangerous game, and increased vigilance is recommended in any case due to the uncertainty of how events might transpire over the next few days. -HomeFront- Texas: Governor Greg Abbott has ordered the deployment of approximately 5,000 National Guard soldiers in preparation for the mass demonstration events planned for this weekend. These forces will augment the thousands of local and state police which have been tasked with keeping order during the thousands of protests that will take place around the nation on Saturday. California: This afternoon U.S. Senator Alex Padilla was arrested after attempting to disrupt a press conference at which DHS Secretary Kristi Noem was speaking. Senator Padilla resisted being removed from the room after causing the disruption, and was subsequently arrested by force in the hallway outside the event. The Senator was released shortly after the incident, and as of yet has not been charged. USA: This afternoon a large scale communications outage was reported throughout the nation. Cloudflare, AWS, and Google Cloud all reported simultaneous issues with their platforms and services. AC: No cause of the outages has been reported, however this is a major incident considering the timing of multiple independent systems going offline at the same time. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: When it comes to the chaos and kinetic activities in Northern Ireland, there are two main lines of effort by involved parties: There are the ethnically Irish protesters-turned-rioters, who have engaged in arson attacks in migrant communities in response to immigration issues. Separate from these incidents, looting has been observed taking place, which is largely being carried out by migrant communities themselves. This is complicating efforts to host legitimately peaceful demonstrations, as the situation in some areas is simply too chaotic to determine exactly what's going on. The situation in Northern Ireland has never been simple to describe, and it's been made worse by the establishment of migrant centers in local Irish communities. In India, right now it's too soon to determine exactly what caused the crash of Flight 171. However local media claims that a mayday call was issued by the pilots immediately after takeoff, though in the short time between the call and the crash, it's not clear what might have happened. Video footage from shortly before the crash also indicates that the aircraft's flaps were fully retracted, which is very abnormal for any aircraft on takeoff, let along a very heavy long-haul flight fully laden with passengers and fuel. Analyst: S2A1 Research: //END REPORT//
Slight update, there are now two brushfires to contend with throughout the LA area. The Bethany Fire in Burbank is mostly under control right now, however the Ranch Fire in the vicinity of Apple Valley continues to be a concern. Just additional complexities to be aware of as the rioting continues overnight. Doesn't look like either will be a major factor for what's going on in the city, however it's worth making note of.
This week's intel update is out 👍