Weekend reports suggested steps toward unlocking a US–China trade deal: officials signaled there would be no additional 100% tariff increase on China and that proposed Chinese export controls on rare earths may be substantially delayed. Unofficial reports say both presidents could later confirm the progress. #FiatNews

Asian and US futures moved higher after weekend signs of progress in US–China trade talks. Chinese and Japanese equity markets opened with solid gains; US futures indicated S&P 500 would open about +0.9% and Nasdaq about +1.3%. Markets cited trade developments as the main catalyst. #SP500 #Nasdaq #FiatNews

Business sentiment in Germany improved in October, with the Ifo business climate index rising to 88.4 points from 87.7 in September, beating a Reuters poll expectation of 88. The German economic institute Ifo said the gain was driven mainly by more optimistic expectations for the months ahead, while firms' assessments of the current situation were slightly weaker than last month. The improvement was broad-based: sentiment in manufacturing rose, led by better expectations for future activity even as current conditions eased; services saw a marked recovery—notably in tourism and IT services; and trade also improved as firms became less pessimistic. Construction was the exception, where business mood softened slightly. Ifo president Clemens Fuest commented, "The German economy still hopes that the upswing will return next year." Germany is the largest economy in Europe and the Czech Republic's biggest trading partner, making these developments relevant for many Czech firms. Five leading German economic institutes estimated at the end of September that GDP would increase by 0.2% this year and by 1.3% next year; the government’s October outlook aligns with that projection. #Germany #Ifo #GDP #FiatNews

The eurozone faces a key test this week as preliminary Q3 GDP, October inflation and the ECB’s two‑day policy meeting in Florence converge to set the near‑term outlook. GDP for the third quarter is due Thursday, just hours before the ECB decision; analysts expect growth around 0.1% (Q2 pace). October inflation is forecast to ease to 2.1% from 2.2%, and the ECB will also publish its bank lending survey assessing how policy is feeding into the real economy. The central bank is widely expected to keep rates at about 2%. #ECB #eurozone #inflation Recent business surveys offered cautious optimism: private‑sector activity unexpectedly hit its highest level since May 2024, led by Germany where planned spending on infrastructure and defence may support demand. Still, the Bundesbank warned that Q3 output is likely to at best stagnate, and another three quarters of negative growth would push Germany into recession. France remains a wildcard amid political disputes over fiscal deficits. Economists urge caution on the signals. "Consumer confidence remains muted despite a strong job market. GDP data will show whether the expected recovery in private consumption, which the ECB had anticipated, still fails to materialize," said Christian Keller of Barclays. Ruben Segura‑Cayuela (Bank of America) warned PMIs have given false signals in the past, while Katharine Neiss (PGIM Fixed Income) noted: "Inflation dynamics are weakening and markets perceive inflation risks clearly to the downside," adding risks that inflation could stay slightly below 2% in 2026. Any sustained softening could reopen debate on future rate cuts. #FiatNews

Intel says its 14A process is showing promising progress and is developing more smoothly than the earlier 18A node, a potential milestone for the company’s foundry ambitions. If realized, 14A could become the first broadly available Intel process offered to external customers, whereas 18A is intended mainly for internal use. CFO David Zinsner said the 14A process is “achieving better results in the same stage of development than 18A,” with stronger performance metrics and notably higher yields at this point in the cycle. #Intel #INTC #semiconductors Key technical features planned for 14A include High-NA EUV lithography and a next-generation RibbonFET 2 transistor. Microsoft is among the limited external users of 18A, using it to produce Maia AI accelerators, but Intel expects 14A to be available to a wider set of customers. The company’s timeline targets initial chips by the end of 2026, though it cautioned that schedules may shift. A successful 14A ramp could materially change Intel Foundry’s financials: the division’s losses have narrowed significantly over the past year but remain negative. Wider customer adoption of 14A would be a key factor in improving the foundry’s profitability. #FiatNews

EUR/USD moved slightly higher after the softer US inflation print as markets priced in a Fed rate cut and dovish rhetoric. Moody’s kept France at Aa3 with a negative outlook, and upcoming German Ifo data—potentially improved after PMI—could offer further support to the euro. #EUR #EURUSD #FiatNews

Czech koruna reaction: after softer US inflation and strong equity gains the koruna showed only modest moves and drifted slightly weaker amid very low volatility. Near-term local drivers include the forming coalition agreement and the Q3 flash GDP expected to slow from 0.5% q/q to 0.3% q/q—factors unlikely to boost the CZK materially. #CZK #GDP #FiatNews

Central and Eastern Europe sits between extremes. Romania has the most negative net international position (~-44% of GDP) and could gain most from a weaker dollar. Poland and Hungary improved but remain near -30% of GDP. The Czech Republic’s position is only mildly negative (~-10% of GDP). #Romania #Poland #Hungary #Czechia #FiatNews

Countries in Latin America such as Brazil still have markedly negative net international investment positions, which makes them more likely to benefit from a weaker dollar as it eases dollar liabilities and external pressures. #Brazil #LatinAmerica #USD #FiatNews

Many Asian economies have shifted from net debtors to net creditors—led by China, Korea, Malaysia and Thailand—holding large dollar reserves. For these creditor economies, a weaker dollar could produce different, even adverse, international balance effects. #Asia #China #USD #FiatNews