Investors are focused on Friday's US employment report as a key input for Fed decisions. Lauren Goodwin of New York Life Investments said a September rate cut is likely but "does not mean the start of a long easing cycle," noting financial conditions remain loose and inflation risks persist. #FiatNews

Fed Governor Christopher Waller backed a rate cut as soon as September and signalled further easing may follow in coming months. Other Fed officials remain cautious amid signs of rising inflation. Bank of America warned that too-aggressive easing could raise inflation risks and threaten central bank credibility. #FiatNews

US job openings fell to their lowest level in ten months, prompting firms to pull back on hiring. Analysts say hiring has slowed and unemployed workers are spending longer searching for jobs, feeding markets’ expectations of policy easing. #FiatNews

US stocks rose after softer US labor data increased expectations for an early Fed rate cut. The S&P 500 closed +0.51%, the NASDAQ 100 +0.79% and the Dow -0.05%. Tech led gains, topped by Alphabet; 30‑year Treasury yields fell back below 5%. #SP500 #NASDAQ100 #Treasury #FiatNews

Investors continue to treat the United States as a safe haven despite concerns over an unsustainable government debt trajectory, a recent analysis argues. Focusing on one element of Greg Mankiw’s framework, the piece examines why market faith persists: investors appear to expect the debt problem to be resolved without crisis. Mankiw lists five ways the U.S. could change its long-term debt path: very rapid economic growth, government default, large-scale money creation (inflationary financing), substantial spending cuts, or large tax increases. While each option currently seems unlikely on its own, their probabilities must add up to one. Mankiw judges higher taxes the most probable route and estimates that to close deficits through revenue alone, overall tax receipts would need to rise by roughly 14 percent. A supporting chart (OurWorldInData) shows U.S. tax revenue relative to GDP remains noticeably below OECD norms. The article draws a corporate analogy: a firm with faster-growing debts but greater potential to boost future cash flow can command similar or higher investor confidence than a less-indebted peer. Likewise, bond investors may rely more on arithmetic and scenarios than on narratives. The low current tax burden in the U.S. is highlighted as a key factor shaping investor expectations about how debt pressures might be resolved. #US #debt #taxes #economy #FiatNews

British fiscal strains are roiling government bond markets as investors doubt the government's ability to rein in finances without harming growth, Bloomberg reports. Sales of long-dated gilts have pushed yields to multi-decade highs: 30-year yields topped 5.7% this week for the first time since 1998, while 10-year yields are at their highest level since January. The pick-up in rates has already cost the Treasury about £8bn since the March fiscal package and pushed interest spending to roughly 8% of a £1.3tn budget, up from 4% pre-pandemic. The market pressure narrows Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s options ahead of the 26 November budget. Reeves added a £10bn buffer to the main fiscal target, but Bloomberg Economics estimates she may need up to £35bn to meet the rule that current spending be covered by revenues within five years. Analysts warn that attempts to placate investors with tax rises or cuts could create a fiscal loop where weaker growth reduces receipts and forces deeper tightening. "Investors have sent a warning into gilt markets," said Susannah Streeter of Hargreaves Lansdown. Mark Dowding of RBC BlueBay warned that perceived unsustainable social spending risks further erosion of confidence and called for closer fiscal‑monetary coordination. Policy options include shifting gilt issuance to shorter maturities or intervention by the Bank of England, which could alter or halt its planned gilt sales under its quantitative tightening program. "If yields keep rising, the probability increases that the central bank will stop active sales altogether," said Dan Hanson of Bloomberg Economics. Some economists have even warned of downside scenarios requiring international support, though such outcomes remain debated. #UK #Bonds #BoE #FiscalPolicy #FiatNews

#Macro calendar: US JOLTS job openings for July are due this afternoon; despite an overall cooling in the labour market, openings are expected to rise. Market attention will shift to Friday’s August employment report as the more consequential data point for markets. #JOLTS #NFP #jobs #FiatNews

#Czech koruna reversed yesterday’s weakness and posted modest gains, trading near 24.47 CZK per euro. The move comes as regional markets join the broader European rebound. #CZK #FiatNews

#Oil: Brent crude has eased slightly and is trading around $69 per barrel amid the broader cautious tone in commodities and markets. No major supply headlines drove the move in early European trade. #Brent #oil #FiatNews

#FX: EUR/USD is edging up to about 1.1655, while the pound is showing similar mild gains. Currency moves reflect the broader subdued risk rally in equities and modest shifts in rate expectations across regions. #EURUSD #FiatNews