#Futures Trade At All-Time High As Global Market Euphoria Goes To 11
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by Tyler Durden
Wednesday, Aug 13, 2025 - 07:36 AM
US equity futures are higher led by small caps (again) as the CPI print induces further short covering ahead of a now certain September rate cut, and a beta chase. As of 8:15am, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures were 0.2% higher after both indexes closed at fresh record highs on Tuesday, but were comfortably outpaced by the Russell 2000 index, as smaller companies were lifted by a largely benign inflation reading. Pre-mkt, Mag7 and semis are higher with Cyclicals outperforming Defensives, ex-Energy. Bond yields are lower as the curve bull flattens and USD weakens; the market strengthens its view on rate cuts in Sep, Oct, and Dec. Bessent calls for a 50bp cut in Sep. Today’s macro data focus is on mtge apps ahead of tmrw’s PPI which should help solidify PCE views.
In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks were mostly higher (Tesla +0.4%, Meta +0.2%, Alphabet +0.2%, Microsoft +0.09%, Amazon +0.1%, Apple +0.1%, Nvidia -0.2%).
180 Life Sciences Corp. (ATNF) is extending share price gains on Wednesday, rising 51%. The company rose 207% on Tuesday after announcing that it holds 82,186 ETH tokens.
Brinker International Inc. (EAT) rises 9% after fourth-quarter earnings beat expectations with the Chili’s owner expecting that momentum to carry through in the next fiscal year, issuing an outlook eclipsing analyst predictions.
Cava Group (CAVA) sinks 24% after the fast casual chain cut its restaurant comp sales forecast for the full year.
CoreWeave (CRWV) is down 9% after posting steeper losses as it continued to build to meet demand from AI developers.
Hanesbrands Inc. (HBI) falls 8% after Gildan Activewear agreed to buy the US underwear maker for about $2.2 billion in cash and stock, in its largest ever acquisition.
Intapp Inc. (INTA) rises 22% after the software services company reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations and gave an outlook that is seen as strong. Annual recurring revenue is seen as a highlight of the report. It also announced a stock repurchase program of up to $150 million.
KinderCare (KLC) tumbles 18% after the childhood-education company posted disappointing results for the second quarter, citing a softer-than-anticipated enrollment and lowering its outlook for the full year. The results prompted a downgrade at Barclays who says the 2Q miss was “the final straw for us.”
Lumentum (LITE) climbs 3% after the maker of optical and photonic products reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations, prompting an upgrade.
SimilarWeb (SMWB) rises 18% after the web services company reported second-quarter revenue that beat expectations and raised its full-year forecast for adjusted operating profit.
Venture Global Inc. (VG) jumps 10% after it prevailed over oil giant Shell Plc in an arbitration case over the sale of cargo from its first export plant.
Webtoon (WBTN) gains 30% after the online comics company announced a deal with Walt Disney to bring about 100 series to its English-language app.
Stocks were set for another day of record highs, as money markets suggest a September Fed interest rate cut is all but nailed on after a goldilocks CPI report that showed less tariff price pressures. The data has bolstered bets that the Fed will resume rate cuts next month and act more aggressively to shield a labor market showing signs of strain. At the same time, the VIX gauge hits its lowest level this year as optimism over a softening rate stance is further buoyed by easing global trade tensions and a significantly stronger-than-expected US earnings season. Swaps are pricing in about a 95% chance of a quarter-point cut in September, up from about 80% before Tuesday’s inflation data, with at least three more similar moves expected by June.
“The bull case remains a convincing one, with earnings growth solid, and a cooler tone on trade continuing to prevail, all the while dovish policy expectations help to provide a cushion against any worries that the economy may be softening,” said Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Bloomberg TV that rates should likely be 150-175 basis points lower. “We could go into a series of rate cuts here, starting with a 50 basis-point rate cut in September,” he said.
US equities have staged an astonishing rebound from their April lows, when US President Donald Trump’s tariffs upended markets. The S&P 500 is closing in on a 10% advance for the year, with most of the fresh gains coming in the past two months.
The volatility that has defined much of this year’s trading has eased, with the VIX falling to its lowest level since December. Treasury market swings have also subsided, as the ICE BofA MOVE Index, a measure of expected yield fluctuations, dropped to its lowest since January 2022.
“Quite simply there is a momentum drive higher here,” said Guy Miller, chief market strategist at Zurich Insurance Co. “The US economy is in stronger shape than many had expected and the risk of recession is continuing to diminish. Markets can go even higher.”
Investors will be watching US PPI on Thursday and retail sales the following day for fresh clues on how the US economy is holding up. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee are scheduled to speak later Wednesday.
Europe's Stoxx 600 rose 0.4%, tracking gains in Asia after a record close on Wall Street. Technology, personal care and health care lead in Europe, while energy and travel lag. US equity futures also edge higher. Glanbia jumps on lifted guidance, with Nordic Semiconductor also advancing, while Demant, Sixt and Persimmon all lost ground. Here are the biggest movers Wednesday:
Glanbia shares climb as much as 13%, the most since 2009, after the food and nutrition company beat expectations in the first half and lifted its guidance for the full year
RENK Group’s shares rise as much as 6.1%, the most since May, after the German defense company reported its second quarter revenue beat the average analyst estimate
TUI shares gain after issuing third-quarter results in which the travel and tourism operator reported a strong beat on underlying Ebit. However, analysts note a slowdown in the group’s core package holiday unit
Nordic Semiconductor shares rally as much as 13% to the highest since July 2024, after the chipmaker gave stronger-than-expected sales guidance for 3Q
Evoke shares rise as much as 5.9% after the gambling company’s earnings surpassed expectations in the first half and leverage was pushed significantly lower, which analysts at Peel Hunt say could widen the appeal of the stock
Safilo gains as much as 9.3%, hitting the highest since April 2023, as Berenberg starts coverage of the Italian eyewear company with a buy rating
Hill & Smith shares rise as much as 12%, hitting their highest level since November, after the maker of infrastructure products reported a good set of results and a new ÂŁ100m buyback
E.ON shares rise as much as 2% after the company delivered broadly in-line results in the first half, with Ebitda coming in about 2% ahead of expectations, according to analysts
Evolution falls as much as 10% after Bloomberg reported executives at the online gambling company were secretly filmed describing how its casino games made their way illegally to countries such as Iran, Sudan and China
Beazley shares fall as much as 8.6%, the most in more than a year, after the British specialist insurer reported first-half results. Analysts at JPMorgan noted that Beazley reduced its FY premium-growth guidance
Straumann shares drop as much as 4.5%, the worst performance in the Stoxx 600 Health Care Index early Wednesday, after the Swiss dental equipment company reported in-line revenue for the first half-year
Sixt shares dipped as much as 6.4% after the German vehicle rental company reported second quarter results. Baader analysts say results are neutral or slightly negative for short-term performance of the share price
Demant drops as much as 5%, to the lowest in more than three months, after once again lowering its guidance. Analysts at JPMorgan see the cut to outlook as “unhelpful” even if not a major shock after recent comments from peers
Persimmon shares fall as much as 3.1% as first-half results from the UK housebuilder included comments on the margin outlook that Citi analysts said may weigh on estimates for 2026
Deutsche PBB shares drop as much as 10% to the lowest since June after the bank reported that its withdrawal from the US had a one-off negative impact of €314 million ($368 million)
Earlier in the session, Asian equities advanced, with Hong Kong and Japan helping to lead the charge, as bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts fueled investor appetite for risk assets. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 1.5%, poised for a third day of gains and touching its highest since February 2021. Tencent was among the biggest boosts before its earnings report, along with TSMC and Alibaba. Gains were also notable in Thailand and South Korea, while benchmarks in Taiwan and Indonesia flirted with record highs. The Hang Seng Tech Index jumped more than 3%, with regional tech stocks also getting a lift from the Nasdaq 100’s climb to a fresh record overnight. Meanwhile, Chinese shares extended their recent strength even amid a lack of major catalysts, with ample domestic liquidity cited as a tailwind for the market. The upbeat mood came after a modest rise in US prices eased concerns that trade-related costs could spill over into broader price pressures. That drove expectations for easier Fed policy, with money markets nearly pricing in a full 25 basis point reduction next month. Here Are the Most Notable Asian Movers
City Developments shares rise as much as 8.5% after the Singapore developer told analysts that planned divestments will allow the company to deliver “nice surprise” dividends by the end of the year.
Hindalco’s shares rose as much as 5.7%, the most since April 11, after analysts raised their price targets on the stock following first-quarter net income that beat the average estimate.
Asics Corp. shares jumped as much as 18% after raising its full-year forecast, predicting record earnings and bringing forward mid-term targets by a year.
Shares of One 97 Communications Ltd. surged to the highest level in over three years after its unit received approval from India’s central bank to operate as an online payment aggregator.
Wilmar International shares slipped as much 1.4% in Singapore after the food processing company’s first-half profit was dented by weak refining margins and a higher tax rate.
LG Display soars by a daily record of 22% in Seoul trading on expectations that the South Korean tech company will benefit from a potential US ban on OLED products made by Chinese rival BOE.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index falls 0.4%, extending its post-CPI fall as traders boost bets on an interest-rate cut by the Fed in September. The pound, kiwi and Swedish krona gain 0.6% each against the greenback.
In rates, Treasuries climb, pushing US 10-year yields down 3 bps to 4.25% with short-end tenors extending their post-CPI rally and long-end outperforming, pulling 2s10s and 5s30s spreads from Tuesday’s highs US yields richer by 2.5bp to 4bp across tenors with the curve flatter, tightening 2s10s and 5s30s spreads by 1.3bp and 0.5bp; 10-year, down nearly 4bp at 4.25% near session low, trails Germany’s by about 1bp. European government bonds also advance. As dust settles from Tuesday’s July CPI data, Fed-dated OIS contracts price in around 23bp of easing for the September policy meeting and a combined 61bp over this year’s three remaining meetings. In SOFR options, recent activity has included demand to hedge risk of a 50bp cut in September
In commodities, WTI crude futures fall 0.4% and below $63 a barrel and Brent dropped to $66 a barrel after the International Energy Agency said oil markets are on track for a record surplus next year as demand growth slows and supplies swell. Spot gold climbs $15 as the metal, which pays no interest, typically benefits from a lower rate environment.
Looking to the day ahead now, and it’s a quiet one on the calendar, but central bank speakers include Barkin (8am), Goolsbee (1pm) and Bostic (1:30pm) and earnings releases include Cisco.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 mini +0.2%
Nasdaq 100 mini +0.2%
Russell 2000 mini +0.6%
Stoxx Europe 600 +0.4%
DAX +0.7%
CAC 40 +0.4%
10-year Treasury yield -3 basis points at 4.25%
VIX -0.2 points at 14.53
Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.4% at 1198.69
euro +0.4% at $1.1727
WTI crude -0.3% at $62.97/barrel
Top overnight news
The U.S. government’s budget deficit grew nearly 20% in July to $291 billion despite a nearly $21 billion jump in customs duty collections from President Donald Trump’s tariffs, with outlays growing faster than receipts, the Treasury Department said on Tuesday. ZH
Treasury Secretary Bessent expects Fed Board Nominee Stephen Miran's Senate confirmation by September. Bessent also suggested that the Fed should consider a 50bps rate cut in September after it held rates steady in July, citing revised data showing weaker job growth in May and June as a key factor for a larger easing move. BBG
China is offering to cover part of the interest payments on some consumer loans, in policymakers’ latest move to boost tepid household spending and counter prolonged deflationary pressures in the world’s second largest economy. FT
China’s ambition to turn its open-source artificial-intelligence models into a global standard has jolted American companies and policymakers, who fear U.S. models could be eclipsed and are mobilizing their responses to the threat. WSJ
US Authorities said to have embedded location trackers in AI chip shipments to catch illegal diversions to China. Trackers found in Dell (DELL), Super Micro (SMCI), NVIDIA (NVDA) & AMD (AMD) shipments: Reuters
Pressure is mounting within the Bank of Japan to ditch a vaguely defined gauge of inflation as worries about second-round price effects prompt some board members to call for a more hawkish communication of policy and a clearer path to future rate hikes. BBG
Japan’s five-year bond auction drew the weakest demand since 2020 amid the prospect of tighter monetary policy and liquidity concerns. BBG
The Trump admin has played down expectations of a peace deal at Friday’s summit between the US and Russian presidents, saying Ukraine would have to be party to any agreement. Press secretary Leavitt said Trump’s meeting with Putin would be a “listening exercise” and that there was no particular outcome Washington could predict. FT
Global oil markets are on track for a record surplus in 2026. Inventories are projected to rise by a massive 2.96 million barrels a day, surpassing even the average buildup during 2020, the IEA said. BBG
The Trump administration is considering changes to how the federal government collects and reports jobs data, according to White House officials, following President Trump’s decision to fire the Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner earlier this month in the aftermath of weak employment numbers. WSJ
Trade/Tariffs
US Treasury Secretary Bessent said he will meet again with Chinese officials in the next two or three months and that they are solving several variables with China, while he added they will need to see months, if not a year, of progress on fentanyl flows before Chinese tariffs come down. Furthermore, he said India has been a bit recalcitrant in trade negotiations.
White House said perhaps the chip deal could expand to other companies.
Brazil's President Lula said he will sign an executive order on Wednesday creating a BRL 30bln credit line for firms affected by tariffs and plans to help Brazilian exporters will include support through Brazilian government purchases, while he noted that they initiated a WTO dispute over US tariffs and will see what they can do in terms of reciprocity. Lula said they cannot be dependent on the dollar and Brazil does not want to interfere with the dollar but noted they can have a currency for trade within BRICS which is an idea that should be tested. Furthermore, he said they are open to discuss ethanol with the US.
Canada's government said Canada is deeply disappointed with China's preliminary anti-dumping duties on Canadian canola imports and it remains ready to engage in constructive dialogue with Chinese officials to address their respective trade concerns.
Chinese Commerce Ministry announces countermeasures against two EU financial institutions, UAB Urbo Bankas and AB Mano Bankas, measures come into effect on August 13th. In response to the EU targeting Chinese firms as part of Russia-related sanctions. Urges the EU to stop damaging Chinese interests.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were mostly higher as the region took impetus from the gains stateside where CPI data was not as hot as feared and kept a September Fed rate cut on the table. ASX 200 bucked the trend and was dragged lower by underperformance in Utilities and the top-weighted Financial sector, with the latter suffering amid losses in CBA post-earnings. Nikkei 225 continued its advances and rallied to fresh record highs above the USD 43,000 level, while the somewhat varied PPI data from Japan had little influence on price action. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were underpinned alongside the mostly upbeat mood across the Asia-Pac region and with a briefing by Chinese officials on supporting consumption, while China had announced on Tuesday to provide interest subsidies for qualifying personal consumption loans in the country's latest effort to boost consumption.
Top Asian News
China's Vice Finance Minister said they will support domestic consumption to become a major driving force for the economy, while a Mofcom official said service consumption has big growth potential and supporting service consumption will help expand domestic demand and employment. Furthermore, a PBoC official said they will guide financial institutions to increase credit issuance to the service consumption sector and to streamline the approval process of consumer loans.
Tencent (700 HK) Q2 2025 (CNY): Revenue 184.50bln (exp. 178.94bln); Adj. Net 63.1bln (exp. 62bln). Operating Profit 60.1bln (exp. 58.5bln). Co. does not declare dividend.
European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.4%) opened modestly firmer across the board and have continued to gradually march higher as the morning progressed; currently just off session highs. European sectors hold a strong positive bias, with only a handful of sectors residing in the red. Tech takes the top spot, joined closely by Healthcare and Utilities; the latter boosted by post-earning upside in E.ON (+1%), where the Co. reported strong H1 metrics and affirmed its guidance. For Healthcare, Novo Nordisk (+1%) benefits from a broker upgrade at BNP Paribas. Travel & Leisure is found right at the foot, dragged down by Swedish-listed Evolution (-8%). Interestingly, Bloomberg reported that the Co. is under investigation for running black-market activities in banned countries, some of which were/are sanctioned by the US (Iran/Syria).
Top European News
German Economy Ministry says despite the basic agreement on US tariffs, there are no signs of noticeable economic recovery.
German CPI Final MM (Jul) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.3%); German CPI Final YY (Jul) 2.0% vs. Exp. 2.0% (Prev. 2.0%)
Spanish HICP Final MM (Jul) -0.3% vs. Exp. -0.4% (Prev. -0.4%); YY (Jul) 2.7% vs. Exp. 2.7% (Prev. 2.7%)
FX
After a steady start to the session, the DXY has taken another leg lower as markets digest Tuesday's CPI report. Overall, it was broadly in-line and judged not to show an alarming increase in goods inflation related to the US tariff policies. As we mentioned in our comme
