Thesis re: MSTR:
It’s typically not smart to pay double for a company’s assets when you have access to the underlying asset itself.
But this might be an exception because of the information asymmetry between those who get bitcoin(small minority still) and those who do not (large majority.)
Think of it this way.
Imagine there were an asymptomatic disease that was only a problem 20 years into the future, and 1% of the population had it. Let’s say they devised a test for it that was 95% accurate.
In a population of 100,000 people, 950 of the 1,000 who had it would be true positives, 50 of those who had it would be false negatives, 4,950 would be false positives and 94,050 would be true negatives.
That means if you tested positive, it would be 950/4,950 (19%) that you actually had the disease. Despite getting 19:1 on the test being accurate, you’d have only a 20 percent chance of having the disease if you tested positive.
So you’re paying 2:1 for the underlying asset, but if 90+ percent of the market prefers stocks to the underlying, you’re likely to outperform it until that changes.