The Hidden History Of Policy Theft & Skyrocketing Gold The Hidden History Of Policy Theft & Skyrocketing Gold As gold continues to rocket north with continuous all-time highs, some investors are still wondering, well… why? The answer has less to do with gold’s consistent physical and monetary properties, and more to do with historical human –and hence policy—weakness, which makes this metal almost  . Let’s dig in. Lead to Temptation Some crimes are harder to see than the classic patterns of masked men robbing citizens at gunpoint. Here, we examine the ironic yet hard truth that unmasked policy makers are deliberately and quietly robbing their citizens with embarrassing impunity. This temptation toward   is done without black cowboy hats or stuffing cash into a burlap bag while scared bystanders hold their hands in the air. Instead, politicos, in neckties and blue suits, commit identical theft with far greater subtlety and destruction—smiling the entire time for re-election. How? Currency De-Valuation as Policy: History 101 The answer, as always, lies in the   to pay down unfathomable sovereign debts by robbing from the people. To see this clearly, let’s start with a little history. As far back as the 1500s, Sir Thomas Gresham (from which “Gresham’s Law” originated) explained that whenever trusted money (i.e., gold) circulates at the same time as bad currency (i.e., paper/fiat “money”), some folks eventually figure out that it is better to save in gold and spend in fiat. From Ancient Rome Onwards These patterns go as far back as ancient Rome, when leaders—over their ears in debt from too many promises, wars and drunken spending—began to chip away at the silver in their Denarius coins, debasing their currency to “pay” down debt. Eventually (over a period of about 250 years), this resulted in a Denarius with zero silver content. image Medieval Europe later followed this desperate playbook by replacing its gold money with copper money. The French did a similar  , and it ended with a lot of rolling heads… This is because real money eventually drives out bad currencies whenever a fiat system approaches its breaking point. This cycle became an economic rule which the 18th century French economist, Adolphe Thiers, spelled out clearly and which history subsequently confirmed from the wheelbarrow money of Weimar Germany to similar currency/debt debacles in Zimbabwe and Venezuela. In such contexts of extreme debt and debased currencies, no one wants to hold worthless paper money. The desire for real money-gold-becomes a desperate and historical thirst. Gone With the Wind During the US Civil War, for example, the Confederate States of 1865 were on their last leg, as its Army of Northern Virginia bled out during the Petersburg siege. The army’s commander, Robert E. Lee, was obviously worried about saving his dwindling troops, but in the waning hours of the Confederacy, the primary theme of the letters to his most trusted general, James Longstreet, centred around  , artillery or horses. Why? Because without real money, even his most devoted soldiers could not be supplied. Unfortunately, their fiscally over-stretched Confederate President, Jefferson Davis, had already debased the Confederate currency to pay debts which their rebel economy could not sustain. Wages, salaries and savings could not keep up with inflation rates (currency debasement), which not even the cleverest liars in Richmond could hide or deny. After failed policies of familiar  , the jig was up on the rebel currency, and gold mattered more than bullets… But there was not enough gold to go around. Not long after, the Confederacy, like so many other paper-currency nations before and since, was gone with the wind… But Not the USD!? Some, of course, will rightly say: “The US today is nothing like ancient Rome, Weimar Germany or the Rebel South of 1865!” Well, yes and no… The USA (and USD) is certainly stronger than 19th 19th-century Confederate currency, a 3rd-century Roman Denarius or the German Mark of 20th 20th-century Weimar. But debt is still debt, and US debt is embarrassing… image And global debt is no less so… image Unfortunately, Gresham’s law, like Thiers’ rules, still apply as much today as yesterday. The death just takes a little longer for a world reserve currency… What we are seeing today with the USD’s open decline and mis-reported inflationary decay is, in fact, nothing new to man, history or economic rules. Inflation Is Theft Take another forgotten truth-teller of the forgotten science of honest economics, the 18th century Irish/Frenchman, Richard Cantillon, from which the “Cantillon Effect” got its name. The Cantillon Effect, like history, teaches us that inflation is not only a deliberate theft by policy makers, but also a wealth transfer from the masses to the elites—something familiar to anyone paying attention to US history… Cantillon shows how new money (i.e., printed or mouse-clicked money) is not accidental nor class-blind. New money always goes to (and enriches) the top 10% first before it later shafts the bottom 90% second. That is, the elites, who already own stocks and real estate (90% of US stocks are held by the top 10%), are the first to benefit from the obvious inflation in stocks and real estate, which always follows money creation in lock-step. The TARP/QE-rescued Wall Street, for example, saw this first hand, when every new version of QE correlated 1:1 with a rise in a stock market drunk on the money printed post-GFC/2008. image In fact, commercial banks saw their greatest bonuses the very year that those same banks nearly broke the economy on a subprime mortgage scandal/scam. But Main Street, temporarily quieted by stimmy checks, was slowly measuring their wages and savings accounts in dollars whose inherent purchasing power was melting by the day from the currency expansion which saved Wall Street while slowly gutting Main Street. This inflation, of course, is an invisible theft, one which starts slowly and then comes all at once. Dishonesty as Deliberate Policy Average citizens feel themselves getting poorer while their leadership tells them  . Actual (as opposed to “reported”) inflation is compounding at levels of at least 10% per year, which means the absolute purchasing power of the USD is dying at a similar rate. US M2 money supply has expanded by 40% since 2020, which means the USD is effectively debasing at a similar rate. This is precisely what policy makers in debt (from ancient Rome to modern DC) need to do in order to pay down debt with devalued money. In other words, policy makers crush the currency—and hence the people—to sustain their debt and themselves. But as clever thieves, policy-makers (central bankers, treasury secretaries and national leaders) do this slowly and with deliberate complexity, as well as with deliberate dishonesty, a fact which a more modern economist, Charles Goodhart, made clear in the 1970s. That is, Goodhart was among the first to reveal that whenever sovereigns create inflation, growth or employment “targets” they are almost always, well: Lying. And as we, and many others, have written with facts rather than drama, the tools, math, and tricks used to measure employment,  , growth, and even the definition of recession are all open lies to anyone willing to look under the hood of the creative math and writing coming out of DC, Brussels or London… History Made Current If we apply the admittedly simplified historical lessons and economic rules above to today’s current headlines, as to: 1) the decline of the dollar and 2) the undeniable rise in gold, we see our situation with almost eerie clarity: The more things change, the more they stay the same. Just as Gresham and Thiers warned, central banks as well as informed investors have already begun to see the debasement of paper money. They increasingly prefer real money – gold – over fiat toilet paper, even if that paper is the world’s reserve currency. This explains the BRICS+ rise and   away from the greenback and UST, which is no longer a slow-drip trend but a rapidly expanding direction. This explains how   since the US M2 expansion became desperate. This explains why central banks have been net stacking gold and net selling USTs since 2014. This explains why 20% of   are now occurring outside the US petrodollar. This explains the open   and London exchanges, who are seeing net outflows of physical gold to satisfy counterparty thirst for the metal. This explains why even the BIS has made gold a Tier-1 asset. This explains why the IMF sees pure gold as fundamental to its otherwise impure CBDC initiatives. This explains the three consecutive years of central bank gold stacking at record levels of above 1000 tons per annum since the USA weaponized the USD in 2022. This explains why central banks now hold more gold than USTs on their balance sheets for the first time since 1996. This explains why even Morgan Stanley must now openly confess/recommend a 20% gold allocation. This explains why Judy Shelton wants to introduce a gold-backed UST. This explains   to create stablecoin demand for otherwise unloved USTs and USDs. In short, and just as Gresham and Thiers warned centuries ago, the world is hoarding gold and turning away from bad money. And just as history also warned, the USD is being openly devalued to pay down a debt crisis of their own making. We’ve Seen this Movie/De-Valuation Before But this, too, is nothing new for our clever thieves from above. In 1933, FDR, by executive order, confiscated gold at $20/ounce and then, overnight, revalued it to $35/ounce, and in doing so, devalued the dollar by 69% in order to make its debt burden 69% less onerous. In 1971, Nixon shamelessly welched on the USD and the world by removing its gold backing. Since then, the dollar has lost well over 90% of its purchasing power. Honest vs. Dishonest Money Such measures certainly made   easier to repay, but only by gut-punching those trusting citizens who measure their wealth, savings, portfolio returns and retirement in USDs. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is how policymakers attempt to stay in power– by quietly robbing their citizens of paper wealth, which in the end, is slowly no wealth at all. And that too, fully explains the record highs and headlines in the current gold price, for gold is not rising due to speculative mania, it’s merely and honestly reflecting its relatively superior value over dishonest paper money—something gold has done throughout history. As noted bluntly before,  . Or stated even more clearly: Gold is rising because corrupted fiat money is falling, yet again… Sat, 10/11/2025 - 10:30
'Substantial' Government Layoffs Have Begun: Vought 'Substantial' Government Layoffs Have Begun: Vought The White House has begun laying off a "substantial" number of government employees, OMB Director Russ Vought announced Friday on X.  image "The RIFs have begun," Vought wrote, referring to reduction-in-force plans.  The RIFs have begun. — Russ Vought (@russvought) "Can confirm RIFs have begun and they are substantial," an OMB spokesperson told https://www.politico.com/news/2025/10/10/vought-sounds-layoff-siren-the-rifs-have-begun-00602262 , adding "These are RIFs not furloughs."  The news comes on the 10th day of the government shutdown after Senate Democrats insisted on maintaining Obama-era benefits that include illegal immigrants, and both sides of the aisle have repeatedly failed to pass subsequent packages to fund the government.  According to the report, the layoffs have hit agencies including: Interior, Homeland Security, Treasury, EPA, Commerce, Education, Energy, HHS and HUD. On Thursday, Trump said his administration would target programs backed by Democrats - saying during a cabinet meeting: "We’re only cutting Democrat programs, I hate to tell you, but we are cutting Democrat programs," adding "We will be cutting some very popular Democrat programs that aren’t popular with Republicans, frankly." The move follows an OMB memo leaked two weeks ago which ordered Trump administration officials to prepare to carry out reduction-in-force (RIF) plans during the shutdown, targeting employees that aren't legally required - OR, those which conflict with Trump's priorities.  Democrats are of course freaking out. "We believe that they are not only unethical and immoral but illegal for him to be RIFing people in a shutdown," said Rep. Sarah Elfreth (D-MD) on Friday.  The cuts also come hours ahead of a court deadline for the DOJ to file a report detailing any plans to terminate workers during the shutdown - ahead of an Oct. 16 hearing on a request by federal worker unions to block layoffs. Over 2/3 of civilian federal employees have remained on the job during the shutdown, between essential workers or jobs that receive longer-term funding. The vast majority of employees are going without pay.  Developing... Fri, 10/10/2025 - 14:00
DOJ Opens Probe Into First Brands' Shocking Bankruptcy DOJ Opens Probe Into First Brands' Shocking Bankruptcy Earlier today, when following up on what is the biggest story of the week, if not year, we said that the First Brands bankruptcy, where a ... image ... means that at least $1.9 billion in cash has disappeared, has been completely ignored by virtually everyone due to the far shinier daily AI circle jerk, which helps melt stocks up every single day and serves as a wonderful distraction to everything else. This is a huge story - rehypothecated off balance sheet debt leading to huge bankruptcy - and nobody cares because daily AI circle jerk — zerohedge (@zerohedge) But we were wrong, because someone was paying attention: the Trump DOJ. Citing "people familiar", the that the Department of Justice has opened an inquiry into the collapse of the bankrupt First Brands Group, as federal prosecutors look to untangle how investors and creditors have been left with billions of dollars in potential losses, in what may be very bad news for the company's banker, Jefferies, which in August was preparing to do a $6 billion refi of the company only to see it slide in bankruptcy a month later. No surprise Jefferies stocks has plunged 30% in the past 3 weeks.  The probe is being led by the US attorney’s office for the Southern District of New York, the Manhattan unit that handles large, complex white-collar cases. The inquiry, which is in its earliest stage, has been described as a fact-finding mission given the company filed for bankruptcy protection less than two weeks ago, and many of the details about First Brands’ finances remain unclear. To be sure, it is not unusual for prosecutors to open investigations when there are public reports of large financial losses stemming from alleged irregularities, and the bar for doing so is low. While the FT notes, that such probes do not necessarily mean any wrongdoing has occurred and may not lead to charges being filed or cases being brought, in this case - where over $2 billion appears to be definitively missing - wrongdoing is all but certain. As we reported , on Wednesday one of the largest creditors to First Brands alleged that as much as $2.3bn had “simply vanished” as part of the company’s abrupt failure. That lender, one of several who had provided off-balance sheet financing relying on that collateral, is now pushing for an external investigation into the company’s actions leading up to the bankruptcy. “The debtors should not be permitted to appoint the very parties that will investigate their own potential misconduct,” the counsel for Raistone, one of the companies that helped arrange off-balance sheet financings for First Brands, wrote in an emergency petition last night. Separately, First Brands appointed two independent directors to probe how the company financed itself through these opaque off-balance sheet vehicles, summarized in the charts below. The company, which makes windshield wipers and fuel tank pumps for cars, had relied on a web of financiers to fund its operations and a wave of acquisitions. Asked at a bankruptcy hearing this month where roughly $2bn raised by First Brands through “factoring” - a type of off-balance sheet invoice financing using receivables and inventories - was held, a lawyer for the company said, “we don’t have it”, and “there’s $12mn in the bank account today. That’s it. There’s nothing else.” As we detailed yesterday, some of the biggest names on Wall Street have been drawn into the debacle, including hedge fund Millennium Management, Swiss banking giant UBS, but most notably investment bank Jefferies, whose actions will be closely scrutinized by the DOJ in the coming days.  Thu, 10/09/2025 - 23:45
CDC Says COVID-19 Vaccination Now Up To Each Individual CDC Says COVID-19 Vaccination Now Up To Each Individual (emphasis ours), The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention no longer broadly recommends COVID-19 vaccination. The agency now says that each person should take a range of factors into account, and consult with their doctor, before receiving a shot. image “Informed consent is back,” Jim O'Neill, the CDC’s acting director, https://www.hhs.gov/press-room/cdc-immunization-schedule-individual-decision-covid19-standalone-chickenpox-toddlers.html in a statement on Oct. 6 after accepting advice from the CDC’s vaccine advisory panel. “CDC’s 2022 blanket recommendation for perpetual COVID-19 boosters deterred health care providers from talking about the risks and benefits of vaccination for the individual patient or parent. That changes today.” The official term for the updated posture is shared clinical decision-making. Under other tiers, vaccination is recommended for everyone or everyone in a certain age or risk group. “Shared clinical decision-making recommendations are individually based and informed by a decision process between the health care provider and the patient or parent/guardian,” the CDC on its website. The CDC for years recommended virtually all people aged 6 months and older receive a COVID-19 vaccine, along with updated versions on an annual basis. Around 44 percent of people aged 65 or older received a COVID-19 vaccine in late 2024 or early 2025, according to CDC data. About 14 percent of adults aged 18 to 49, 13 percent of children, and 10 percent of health care workers received a vaccine during that time. Under orders from Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the agency in May COVID-19 vaccination for healthy children and pregnant women. The Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices, the CDC’s vaccine advisory panel, in September unanimously that the CDC should change from its near-universal recommendation to shared clinical decision-making, in part because panel members said data supporting vaccine effectiveness is weak. “At best, the additional protection provided by a seasonal booster is moderate and of short term,” Retsef Levi, chair of the panel’s COVID-19 immunization workgroup, during the meeting. Members also said that they were concerned about side effects the vaccines can cause, including myocarditis, a form of heart inflammation. The panel’s advice is typically accepted by the CDC. The Food and Drug Administration recently withdrew emergency authorization for the COVID-19 vaccines. In updated approvals, it the shots for people who are at least 6 months old who have one or more risk factors, as well as for people 65 and older. Two of the shots are made by Moderna. One is made by Pfizer and BioNTech. The other is made by Novavax. Some outside groups, including the American Academy of Pediatrics, still COVID-19 vaccination for broader populations, including all children aged 6 to 23 months. Tue, 10/07/2025 - 13:40
Trump Warns Hamas Faces "Complete Obliteration" As Deadline Arrives To Free Hostages Trump Warns Hamas Faces "Complete Obliteration" As Deadline Arrives To Free Hostages President Trump on Friday had given Hamas a deadline of Sunday evening to release all the remaining Israeli hostages, both living and dead (estimated to be 48 total), or else they will be "hunted down, and killed". "They will be given one last chance," he had posted on Truth Social. "THIS DEAL ALSO SPARES THE LIVES OF ALL REMAINING HAMAS FIGHTERS!" That is, if they agree to fully disarm based on the White House's 20-point peace plan. image So far, Hamas is said it is willing the release the captives, but indicated it wants to enter negotiations on other points, which is presumably happening through mediators. But Trump has demanded the Palestinian militant group act quickly. On Sunday Trump told CNN that Hamas faces "complete obliteration" if it doesn't comply to disarming and if it attempts to cling to power in Gaza. And more, via https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-october-5-2025/ : Asked about those who say Hamas effectively rejected Trump’s proposal by refusing to accept disarmament and setting conditions for a hostage release, Trump writes, "We will find out. Only time will tell!!!" The terror group has said repeatedly it does not want to remain, itself, the government of Gaza, but it has not assented to its total disarmament and has demanded to play some role in a future Palestinian state. Trump also responds "yes" when asked if Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is on board with doing whatever is needed to make peace a reality. Palestinians sources say that little has changed on the ground, after the Israeli government ordered a pause to the ground offensive. Aerial bombardments are still going strong, also according to Al Jazeera. Interestingly, Axios is reporting ongoing deep tensions behind the scenes between Trump and Netanyahu over the Gaza peace plan. The publication said that Trump over the weekend called his Israeli counterpart to discuss the 'good news' of Hamas saying it would cooperate with the peace deal. Axios writes that Trump expressed frustration that Bibi received this https://www.axios.com/2025/10/05/trump-netanyahu-call-gaza-peace-deal-hamas : Netanyahu felt differently. "Bibi told Trump this is nothing to celebrate, and that it doesn't mean anything," a U.S. official with knowledge of the call told Axios. Trump fired back: "I don't know why you're always so f***ing negative. This is a win. Take it." Hamas' response has been characterized as a "yes, but..." - despite Trump having previously said that there's very little room open for negotiations at this late point. Hamas has agreed to President Trump’s plan, agreeing to finally release the hostages. The war must end. Too many people have been killed and injured, and peace is badly needed. https://t.co/KczExzSw8x — Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene🇺🇸 (@RepMTG) "In private consultations Friday, Netanyahu stressed that he viewed Hamas' response as a rejection of Trump's plan," Axios says further "He said he wanted to coordinate with the U.S. on its response to avoid a narrative that Hamas had answered positively, an Israeli official told Axios." It's long been known that the two leaders appearing closer than ever in appearances together (after all, Netanyahu has been to the White House some four times already during Trump's term), they somewhat frequently have clashed running years back. Sun, 10/05/2025 - 19:15
China Reportedly Operated SIM Farm Network Designed To Crash NYC Cell Networks China Reportedly Operated SIM Farm Network Designed To Crash NYC Cell Networks  Last month, just hours before President Trump's address to the United Nations General Assembly, the U.S. Secret Service dropped a revealing it had dismantled a massive, decentralized SIM farm network located just 35 miles from New York City. The network had the operational capacity of a telecommunications stealth weapon capable of paralyzing the entire metro area's cell network through a massive denial-of-service attack. New details emerged in an exclusive report from https://www.theblaze.com/news/exclusive-china-behind-massive-nationwide-sim-farm-network-that-directly-threatens-american-critical-infrastructure?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=dlvr.it_x_theblaze&tpcc=social_x-post , citing sources within the Department of Homeland Security and the U.S. intelligence community, who revealed that these SIM farms had been operational for more than a year and were operated by China's Ministry of State Security. image "This is something that is a direct threat to our nation right now," a top intelligence official told Blaze News. "A direct threat to our nation, and it needs to be shut down today — like ASAP. Only five of them have been taken down so far." The Blaze's report continues: The SIM networks were put in place and are managed by China's Ministry of State Security, an ultra-secretive, massive espionage agency that has grown in prominence and global activity in recent years, according to the journal China Leadership Monitor. The MSS employs more than 800,000 people, nearly double the Soviet KGB at its peak. The MSS "now operates worldwide at a scale and tempo not seen in decades," China Leadership Monitor wrote in a recent newsletter. Several officials who spoke with Blaze News anonymously said the establishment and use of this destructive network by China should be considered an act of war. The potential threat to America would be "second only to thermonuclear war," one source said. "It's absolutely an act of war — an internationally recognized act of war," one intelligence expert told Blaze News. "Cyberattacks on critical infrastructure is, and facilitating terrorism to the point where you're trying to kill high-ranking members of the United States government. Those two alone are acts of war." . . .  "These things were being used all summer to SWAT people since Trump was elected," said one source, speaking anonymously because the source is not authorized to discuss an ongoing investigation. "Swatting — that's a terrorist act. The Trump administration declared that a terrorist act." While the Chinese facilitated the SWAT raids, it is believed that Americans who are familiar with the system — either through a government or a criminal enterprise — are initiating the hoax calls, the source said. The swatting of a senior Secret Service official and some Secret Service protectees last spring led to the investigation that discovered the Chinese SIM farms in the Tri-State area, the Secret Service confirmed to Blaze News. A Secret Service engineer assigned to the investigation was key to discovering the SIM network. An intelligence analyst told Blaze News that: What's shocking is that there may be up to 100 or more of these sites everywhere. There's probably 60, 80, 100 of these in the United States. The discovery of weaponized SIM farm nodes by China should not come as a surprise. This is because the Chinese Communist Party's ongoing irregular warfare campaign against the U.S. has been supercharged over the years, especially in the era of Trump.  The book China's Total War Strategy: Next-Generation Weapons of Mass Destruction - published by the CCP BioThreats Initiative and authored by Dr. Ryan Clarke, LJ Eads, Dr. Robert McCreight, and Dr. Xiaoxu Sean Lin - outlines how the CCP pursues an aggressive, multifaceted "total war" against the U.S. that leverages next-generation weapons, including synthetic narcotics (e.g., fentanyl and cannabinoids), bioweapons (e.g., Covid-19), psychological manipulation and influence (e.g., TikTok), and a broad arsenal of irregular warfare tools ( ). image And now, SIM farms appear to be another domain of the CCP's irregular warfare campaign, an effort to collapse America from within by paralyzing communication networks. Throughout this year, one high-level Trump official has warned us about the devastation left behind by the years-long "Salt Typhoon" cyberattack carried out by China. On another front, Congressional Republicans of the Oversight Committee have been investigating the dark money networks and political affiliations of billionaire Neville Roy Singham, a U.S. national reportedly residing in Communist China, who allegedly was funding far-left color revolutions in the U.S. to sow chaos. Are you starting to get the picture now?  Sat, 10/04/2025 - 14:35
FICO Spikes On Plan To Go Direct To Lenders, Upends Experian, Equifax, TransUnion FICO Spikes On Plan To Go Direct To Lenders, Upends Experian, Equifax, TransUnion Fair Isaac shares surged today after announcing a plan that bypasses the big three credit bureaus - Experian, Equifax, and TransUnion - in providing its credit scores directly to mortgage lenders. Until now, mortgage resellers had to purchase FICO scores through the bureaus, who added markups of about $10 per score, https://www.wsj.com/personal-finance/credit/fico-stock-pricing-model-434ff3e7 . FICO will now sell directly, offering lenders either a flat $10 fee or $4.95 per score plus a $33 closing fee. The company said the new closing charge replaces reissue fees but didn’t disclose the prior cost. image WSJ https://www.wsj.com/personal-finance/credit/fico-stock-pricing-model-434ff3e7 that the change threatens a long-standing revenue stream for the bureaus. “We believe this change adds substantial uncertainty to a sector that has already been undergoing heightened volatility amid a series of potential regulatory changes,” wrote UBS analyst Kevin McVeigh. The move follows pressure from regulators to reduce costs in an unaffordable housing market. Earlier this year, the FHFA authorized lenders to use VantageScore—developed by the three bureaus—for government-backed loans, challenging FICO’s dominance. FHFA Director Bill Pulte called FICO’s plan a “first step” and urged bureaus to “take similar creative and constructive actions” while pressing VantageScore to ensure “they are competitive, in every way, including but not limited to costs.” Industry reactions were cautiously positive. TD Cowen analysts called the change “politically positive.” Mortgage Bankers Association chief Bob Broeksmit said it was a “step in the right direction” but warned it “remains to be seen” whether it will meaningfully lower costs. Thu, 10/02/2025 - 21:00
Stocks Hit Record Highs Around The Globe As AI Mania Hit Escape Velocity Stocks Hit Record Highs Around The Globe As AI Mania Hit Escape Velocity US equity futures are higher with tech and small caps both outperforming as the screaming AI euphoria drove global indexes to fresh highs after an OpenAI share sale valued the company at an eye-popping $500 billion, catapulting the firm to become the world’s most valuable startup, surpassing SpaceX. As of 8:00am ET,  S&P futures were 0.2% higher, trading at a fresh all time high, and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.5%, putting the gauge on track for a fifth straight gain. Pre-market, Mag7 tech are mostly higher led by NVDA (+1.3%) and TSLA (+1.5%); global chipmakers soared and energy REIT Fermi jumped for a second day after its IPO. We have also seen overnight outperformance in both European and Asian markets despite relatively muted incremental news flows: Europe’s Stoxx 600 also hit a record after rising 0.8%, led by an advance of more than 2% in technology shares. In Asia, equities rose past last month’s record close as chipmakers rallied. MSCI’s global index also notched a fresh high. Bond yields are unchanged; USD is lower; Oil is lower, while metals are higher. Today's Initial and Continuing Claims data will be delayed due to the shutdown; we should get the final August Durables/Factory orders prints at 10am. image In premarket trading, Mag7 stocks are mostly higher (Tesla +1.7%, Nvidia +1.3%, Meta +0.7%, Apple +0.4%, Amazon +0.3%, Alphabet -0.09%, Microsoft -0.2%). Absci (ABSI) is up 4% after JPMorgan initiates at overweight, saying the biotech company’s unique expertise in the computational space could change how new therapeutics are found. AngioDynamics (ANGO) rises 11% after the medical-device maker boosted its net sales guidance for the full year. Edison International (EIX) falls 1.8% after Jefferies downgraded the utility to hold, citing a higher risk profile. Equifax (EFX), a credit-reporting company, drops 11% and TransUnion (TRU) falls 10% after Fair Isaac Corp. announced a new program giving mortgage lenders the option to calculate and distribute FICO scores directly to customers. Shares of Fair Isaac Corp. (FICO) are up 20%. Fermi (FRMI) rises 16% after the Texas-based real estate investment trust rallied 55% in its market debut on Wednesday. Shoals Technologies Group Inc. (SHLS) climbs 8% after Barclays upgraded the renewable-energy equipment company to overweight, citing growth potential. Stellantis (STLA) gains 7% after the maker of Jeep SUVs reported a gain in third-quarter US deliveries, sparking optimism on the group’s turnaround prospects. The US govt shutdown quietly entered its shutdown for a second day and markets could care less. Strategists noted that past shutdowns have typically had little macroeconomic impact, and judging by recent history,  . At a White House press conference on Wednesday, Vice President JD Vance said he doesn’t anticipate a long shutdown, adding that layoffs will come if it lasts for days or weeks.  “This is all very much a storm in a teacup,” wrote Michael Brown, a senior market strategist at Pepperstone. “The government has shut down 20 times in the past, and reopened 20 times as well – this time will not be different.” OpenAI’s valuation soared to $500 billion after current and former employees sold about $6.6 billion of stock. In wave of good news that swept along semiconductor and AI companies, the ChatGPT owner also forged agreements with South Korean firms. Separately, OpenAI also released a social app for sharing AI Videos and inked a deal with Samsung and Hynix to supply its ambitious Stargate datacenter project. Apple has paused a planned overhaul of its Vision Pro headset to focus on developing smart glasses that can rival Meta’s products. The AI boom has powered global stocks to successive highs, with a resumption of interest-rate cuts and resilient earnings adding to the bullish momentum. For now, investors also see limited risk from the political impasse in Washington, which has triggered the first government shutdown in nearly seven years. “The tech sector is so large and it’s doing so well,” said Marija Veitmane, senior multi-asset strategist at State Street Global Markets. “The reason the market is prepared to pay those high valuations for the tech sector is really because we don’t see good growth opportunities outside tech.” In the latest tariff news, the EU plans to hike duties on its steel imports to 50%, according to a draft proposal. As for macro data, the government shutdown and other challenges at the government statistics bureaus means clear signals about the economy are difficult to assess.  A relentless buying spree in US equities dominated quarter-end pension rebalancing, overwhelming projected net selling, according to the trading desk at Goldman Sachs. Bank of America derivatives strategists see scope to use options to bet on further gains for tech. If a 45% rally in the sector since early April looks like a bubble, it probably won’t burst any time soon, they said. Also top of mind is the fast-approaching 3Q reporting season. Earnings outlook momentum remains positive although has trended lower in recent weeks, according to Citi’s earnings revisions index. Turning to the data, the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ nonfarm payrolls data on Friday will likely be delayed, as well as the weekly initial jobless claims numbers usually due Thursdays. Still, figures from outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas showed US employers dialed back hiring plans in September, even though they also announced fewer job cuts. Even without the data however, money markets are almost fully pricing a quarter-point Fed cut at the end of the month and see an 80% chance of another in December to support the labor market. “If you really dig into the labor market data, it’s not just an AI structural story, it’s not just a lower immigration story, you are seeing that cyclical demand weakness,” Kim Crawford, global rates portfolio manager at JPMorgan Asset Management, told Bloomberg TV. “The clearest part to this puzzle is wage growth, there is a lack of wage growth in the US.” European stocks rally to a new record on a boost for tech and car stocks. Tech optimism is bolstered by OpenAI raising funds to value the firm at $500 billion. The Stoxx 600 is up 0.7% and the Euro Stoxx 50 by 1.3% while a gauge of EM stocks hit the highest since 2021 on the AI-driven optimism. Here are some of the biggest movers on Thursday: Stellantis shares gain as much as 7.6% in Milan after the maker of Jeep SUVs reported a gain in third-quarter US deliveries, sparking optimism about turnaround prospects. European semiconductor stocks lead a broader market rally on Thursday, following gains among US peers late in Wednesday’s trading. Rational shares rise as much as 7.4% after the professional kitchen equipment maker was upgraded by Barclays on valuation grounds, while Bernstein lifted its price target to a new Street-high. Tesco shares rise as much as 4.2% after Britain’s biggest supermarket reported first-half profit that beat estimates and boosted its adjusted operating profit forecast for the year. Hochtief gains as much as 6.8%, hitting a new record high, as BofA double-upgrades to buy from underperform, citing the construction and infrastructure firm’s attractive growth story. Novo rises as much as 4.8% while Roche gains as much as 1.5% after the pair were upgraded to buy from hold at HSBC, while AbbVie was downgraded to a hold from buy. Piaggio shares gain as much as 5.2%, the most since late July, after Italian Cycle and Motorcycle Association data showed a rebound in the two-wheeler market. Sobi climbs as much as 5.2%, in a fourth straight day of gains, as Danske Bank says there may be scope for the Swedish biopharma company to upgrade its guidance at the upcoming third-quarter results. Morgan Sindall jumps 13% to a record high as the construction group says it is performing “significantly ahead of previous expectations” after business at its Fit Out division continued to strengthen. Earlier in the session, Asian shares advanced for a fourth day, turbocharged by technology firms after a deal between OpenAI and South Korean chipmakers brightened the outlook of artificial intelligence. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 1.2%, the most in nearly four weeks. TSMC was among the biggest contributors, along with Alibaba and SK Hynix.  The Kospi was the region’s top performer, jumping 2.7% to a fresh record, following Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix’s deal to supply chips to OpenAI’s Stargate project. Benchmarks in Taiwan, Australia and Singapore all climbed over 1%. The tech rally has been underpinning the recent strength of Asian stocks, as investors brushed off geopolitical risks and the first US government shutdown in seven years. An informal survey by Bloomberg also shows that strategists expect the region to outperform the US in the current quarter on attractive valuations and earnings prospects. Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong jumped as trading resumed after a public holiday. Alibaba was among the lead gainers after JPMorgan boosted its price target by 45%, citing an improved outlook for cloud revenue and growing synergy between its AI and e-commerce operations. Mainland Chinese and Indian markets were shut for a holiday. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index down 0.2%; kiwi and the yen outperforming. In rates, treasuries mostly held Wednesday’s gains, with the yield on 10-year notes steady at 4.09%. After Fed rate-cut expectations pulled yields down from January’s high near 4.80%, traders are now contending with a temporary blackout in economic data amid the government shutdown. In commodity markets, gold extended its record-breaking rally while oil fell for a fourth consecutive day. West Texas Intermediate slid toward $61 a barrel, touching the lowest level in four months as expectations of OPEC+ restoring more idled supply deepened fears of a global glut.  Looking at today's calendar, the 8:30am jobless claims data will be delayed. Factory orders, durable goods and cap goods for August are all due at 10 am New York, but the government shutdown may affect the release of economic data Market Snapshot S&P 500 mini +0.1% Nasdaq 100 mini +0.3% Russell 2000 mini +0.3% Stoxx Europe 600 +0.7% DAX +1.3% CAC 40 +1.1% 10-year Treasury yield -1 basis point at 4.09% VIX -0.2 points at 16.06 Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.2% at 1198.34 euro +0.2% at $1.1757 WTI crude -0.5% at $61.48/barrel Top Overnight News The shutdown entered a second day with little sign of a breakthrough. The White House is looking to cancel infrastructure projects in Democratic-leaning states. Jobless claims data won’t be released today, a Labor Department spokesman said. BBG The US will lose $15 billion in GDP each week during a shutdown, Politico reported, citing a White House memo. BBG Global chipmakers saw their market value soar as investors rushed to get exposure to artificial intelligence, the latest sign of a frenetic bull run that is pushing tech stocks to all-time highs. The combined market capitalization of the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index and a gauge tracking Asia chip stocks went up by just over $200 billion in the latest session. BBG Trump said Wednesday that soybeans will be a “major” topic in his meeting with Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping later this month, pledging aid for American farmers after Beijing halted purchases of the staple amid trade tensions. Nikkei OpenAI’s valuation reached $500 billion, a person familiar said, surpassing SpaceX as the world’s largest startup. Employees sold about $6.6 billion of stock to investors including Joshua Kushner’s Thrive Capital and SoftBank. BBG Apple (AAPL) has shelved its headset revamp to prioritise Meta-style AI glasses: Bloomberg. The U.S. will provide Ukraine with intelligence for long-range missile strikes on Russia’s energy infrastructure, American officials said, as the Trump administration weighs sending Kyiv powerful weapons that could put in range more targets within Russia. WSJ The EU is planning to join US and Canadian efforts to tackle cheap Chinese steel imports by reducing import quotas and increasing tariffs. The European industry commissioner promised industry bosses and unions to levy tariffs of up to 50% on foreign steel at an emergency meeting on Wed. FT Japanese business mood is improving and corporate profits remain high even as U.S. tariffs weigh on exports, Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida said, signalling confidence that conditions for another interest rate hike was falling into place. RTRS Japan’s bonds fell after an auction of 10-year notes saw the bid-to-cover ratio drop from last month, in a show of weak demand. BBG Fed’s Goolsbee (2025 voter) said he is starting to get more concerned about inflation moving the wrong way and that counting on it being transitory makes him nervous. He noted that with the BLS down, there are limited indicators on inflation, said he hopes tariff impacts will prove transitory, and added that while the underlying economy is strong enough to allow rates to come down a fair amount, the Fed should be careful: RTRS Trump's Administration is reportedly working with Pharma, AI, Energy, Ship Building, Battery Products and other sectors: Reuters  US Govt Shutdown US President Trump plans to cancel Western hydrogen hubs amid the government shutdown fight, according to Bloomberg. US President Trump posted that Republicans must use the Democrat-forced closure to clear out dead wood, waste, and fraud, adding that billions of dollars can be saved, via Truth Social. S&P warned that the US government shutdown adds uncertainty to the economic outlook, with extended delays in key economic data releases potentially complicating Fed monetary policy decisions. The agency estimated the shutdown could reduce GDP growth by 0.1–0.2 ppts per week. Trade/Tariffs Preparations for US President Trump’s visit to Asia have ground to a halt amidst the government shutdown, Nikkei reported, with officials at the embassies of Malaysia, Japan, and South Korea scrambling to gather information ahead of his visit in just over three weeks. South Korea’s Foreign Minister said South Korea and the US have broadly reached an agreement in the security sector, Yonhap reported. Brazil and the US are working to arrange an in-person meeting between Presidents Lula and Trump, according to Bloomberg. Japan and US reportedly arranging a visit by US President Trump to Japan on October 27, according to Japanese press. The EU plans to hike steel import tariffs to 50%, according to a draft proposal seen by Bloomberg. A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk APAC stocks were firmer, with gains across the board following a positive handover from Wall Street, where tech outperformed, whilst the US jobs reports this week look set to be delayed after CR votes failed again on Wednesday, as expected. ASX 200 was propped up by strength in gold and mining names while defensive sectors lagged, with no reaction seen to the RBA Financial Stability Review, which suggested Australia’s financial system remains well positioned to navigate a period of elevated global uncertainty. Nikkei 225 saw upside led by metals and pharma stocks, though gains were capped as the JPY trimmed earlier losses. Hang Seng conformed to regional gains and played catch-up to yesterday’s price action during the National Day closure, though momentum was limited by the absence of Stock Connect, with Mainland China remaining shut until next Thursday. KOSPI outperformed and hit a fresh record high, overlooking stronger-than-expected CPI, with gains driven by surges in SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics after both firms partnered with OpenAI under the Stargate initiative. Sentiment was also supported by news that South Korea and the US agreed on a basic security framework. Top Asian News The RBA’s Financial Stability Review said Australia’s financial system remains well positioned to navigate elevated global uncertainty, with the largest risks to stability coming from abroad, including high and rising government debt in major economies, stretched asset valuations and leverage in global markets, and heightened geopolitical and operational risks. The RBA said most households with mortgages are keeping up with repayments and have built savings buffers, many businesses have established financial buffers, and Australian banks continue to maintain high levels of capital and liquidity. It underscored the importance of maintaining prudent lending standards and strengthening operational resilience via the RBA. A BoK official said the significant impact of US tariffs on exports has not yet been observed, but effects are expected to become more apparent next year, according to Reuters. BoJ's Uchida says Tankan survey showed positive business sentiment as US tariff outlook recedes; BoJ to raise rates if economic outlook is realised. European bourses are mostly higher as the solid start to Q4 continues, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.3%. FTSE 100 -0.1% is the main outlier after the healthcare and energy-led gains seen on Wednesday. From a macro perspective, it is very much a case of more of the same as incremental drivers remain light aside from the overhang of the US government shutdown. Sectors mostly firmer, Tech outperforms after the strength on Wall St.; Autos firmer with heavyweight Ferrari supported by a broker upgrade. Luxury also strong after Brunello Cucinelli numbers, supporting peers. Top European News BoE DMP: Expectations for year-ahead CPI inflation rose by 0.1 percentage points to 3.4% in the three months to September. The corresponding measure for three-year ahead CPI inflation expectations also remained unchanged at 2.9% in the three months to September. FX DXY is currently lower for a 5th consecutive session. Continued focus on the shutdown, which has trimmed the data docket, as such other prints e.g. the Chicago Fed measure may draw greater attention. DXY has delved as low as 97.53 but is holding above yesterday's trough @ 97.46. Euro is a touch firmer after a choppy Wednesday. Specifics very light. EUR/USD is currently contained within yesterday's 1.1715-79 range. Sterling also slightly firmer against the UST but relatively even against the EUR. The latest BoE DMP report showed firms year-ahead own-price inflation was unchanged at 3.7%, whilst expectations for year-ahead CPI inflation rose by 0.1 percentage points to 3.4%. Cable has moved back onto a 1.35 handle but is yet to approach yesterday's best @ 1.3527. JPY firmer, with USD/JPY down to a 146.61 low before returning to a 147 handle. Attention on BoJ's Uchida who noted that the Bank will keep hiking rates if the economic outlook is realised. Antipodeans both in the green but the Kiwi is currently leading. Specifics light thus far, particularly with China away. Fixed Income JGBs hit overnight by a weak 10yr tap. No followthrough to remarks from BoJ's Uchida thereafter, though his positive lens on the Tankan survey underscores the narrative that a hike at the October meeting is the more likely outcome as things stand. USTs contained in a very narrow range. Specifics unsurprisingly light with the US government shutdown still underway. Currently, USTs chop around the unchanged mark in a 112-25+ to 112-30+ band, entirely within but at the upper end of yesterday’s 112-12 to 112-31 parameters. EGBs saw a slightly softer start to the day, though within recent parameters. Specifics light aside from supply. Overall, the auctions were slightly soft but still the passing of the morning's docket was sufficient to bring the benchmarks back to earlier highs and marginally firmer, with gains of a handful of ticks in Bunds at best. Gilts spent the morning near-enoguh flat into supply. A few updates around the Autumn Budget beforehand, but nothing that shifts the dial. Supply on face value was ok, though the cover was the lowest since 2022. Japan sold JPY 2.6tln 10yr JGB; b/c 3.34x (prev. 3.92x), average yield 1.6350% (prev. 1.6120%) Fixed Income Crude spent the morning in a thin c. USD 0.60/bbl bound. However, the complex came under some modest pressure to respective lows of USD 61.22/bbl and USD 64.80/bbl for WTI and Brent respectively, nothing fresh behind the pressure. Overnight, a spike to session highs occured around an hour after a more modest move higher on reports in the WSJ that the US is to provide Ukraine with intelligence for missile strikes deep inside Russia, and are asking NATO allies to provide similar insight. Spot gold taking a slight breather from its recent rally, though it remains near the USD 3895/oz ATH into a thinner than usual docket. Base metals continue to gain despite the absence of its largest buyer, China. 3M LME Copper extended above USD 10.40k/t during APAC trade, a move that has continued to a USD 10.51k/t peak. Goldman Sachs said upside risks have intensified further for their mid-2026 and Dec-2026 gold price forecasts of USD 4,000/oz and USD 4,300/oz respectively, and reiterated that gold remains their highest-conviction long commodity recommendation, according to Reuters. Kazakhstan's Energy Minister says they are doing everything possible to implement compensation plan; sees Kazakhstan oil output at 90mln tons in 2026 Geopolitics The US will provide Ukraine with intelligence for missile strikes deep inside Russia, and US officials are asking NATO allies to provide similar support, via WSJ. The G7 agreed on the importance of trade measures, including tariffs and import–export bans, to curb Russian revenue, according to Reuters. US Event Calendar 7:30 am: Sep Challenger Job Cuts YoY, prior 13.3% 8:30 am: Sep 27 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 225k, prior 218k 8:30 am: Sep 20 Continuing Claims, est. 1931k, prior 1926k 10:00 am: Aug Factory Orders, est. 1.4%, prior -1.3% 10:00 am: Aug F Durable Goods Orders, est. 2.9%, prior 2.9% 10:00 am: Aug F Durables Ex Transportation, est. 0.4%, prior 0.4% 10:00 am: Aug F Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.58%, prior 0.6% 10:00 am: Aug F Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, est. -0.3%, prior -0.3% Central Bank Speakers 10:30 am: Fed’s Logan Speaks at University of Texas conference 2:30 pm: Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks on Fox Business DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap US markets kicked off Q4 as they ended Q3, with the S&P 500 (+0.34%) reaching another record high despite the shutdown noise and an ADP report showing a contraction in private payrolls. At the same time, fresh fears over the US labour market saw Treasury yields decline sharply as investors priced in more rate cuts. Europe also saw an optimistic session, as positive data helped to push the STOXX 600 (+1.15%) to a new record of its own, finally surpassing its previous peak in early March. Remember that German fiscal stimulus started this week and from my experience of talking to investors around the world in recent weeks, people have largely forgotten about the story, so once you see the impact in the data we might be set for further advances in German and European risk assets all other things being equal.  Meanwhile, the US shutdown remains a huge story, and there’s still no sign of a climbdown from either side. Yesterday the continuing resolution proposal that was earlier approved by Republicans in the House again failed to muster the 60 voters necessary to override the filibuster in the Senate. Just as the previous day, the vote ended five votes short at 55-45 as three Democrats supported the bill while Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky was the lone Republican to vote against. We are unlikely to get another vote today as we have Yom Kippur with the Senate traditionally not sitting given how many of its members celebrate the day.    In terms of expectations, the current view on Polymarket is that it’ll likely be resolved in the next two weeks, with a 34% prospect of the shutdown lasting beyond October 15. Meanwhile, we heard that the administration was using the shutdown to halt federal funding for infrastructure and energy projects in New York City and more than a dozen Democrat-leaning states. From a market perspective, the most tangible impact is that we won’t get the weekly jobless claims data today, or the jobs report tomorrow. So that’s led investors to put a lot more focus on the private sector data releases, which are generating an outsize market impact as a result. In fact, yesterday we had the ADP’s report of private payrolls, which as we all know pretty much always comes out two days before payrolls, and isn’t too much of a market mover. But this time around, the print caused a significant reaction, as it underwhelmed at -32k (vs. +51k expected), and it raised fears that the next jobs report (whenever we get it) would disappoint like the last two. So investors dialled up their expectations for rate cuts yesterday, with the amount priced in by the June meeting up a sizeable +7.7bps on the day to 90.7bps. And in turn, front-end Treasuries posted a decent decline, with the 2yr yield (-7.4bps) falling to 3.53%, and the 10yr yield (-5.2bps) falling to 4.10%. We are broadly unchanged in Asia trading.   In the latest Fed news, the Supreme Court rejected President Trump's demand to immediately remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook from her post. Cook can thus remain in her post at least until the Supreme Court hears the arguments in the case in January. So that eased some immediate concerns about White House influence over the Fed.  The ADP release initially weighed on equities, but the S&P 500 again recovered as the day went on to close +0.34% higher. In part that was as the weakness in the ADP report wasn’t echoed elsewhere, and the ISM manufacturing came in broadly as expected at 49.1 (vs. 49.0 expected). New orders disappointed (48.9 vs 50.0 expected) but the employment component surprised to the upside (45.3 vs 44.3 expected) and prices paid fell to an 8-month low of 61.9 (vs 62.7 expected). While most of the S&P 500 were lower on the day, specific sectors helped drive the overall advance. Tech outperformance helped the Mag-7 (+0.61%) to a new all-time high, while the healthcare sector (+3.01%) was the outstanding performer in the S&P. That followed news the previous evening that Pfizer had negotiated a 3-year reprieve on pharma tariffs with the White House, leaving investors more confident that US drugmakers would be able to avoid major levies. Pfizer rose +6.79%, with other major pharma companies including Ely Lilly (+8.18%) and Merck (+7.39%) also seeing outsized gains.  Over in Europe, there was an even more robust tone, with equities rising across the board. So that saw the STOXX 600 (+1.15%) and the FTSE 100 (+1.03%) both hit new highs, whilst Spain’s IBEX 35 (+0.41%) moved up to a post-2007 high as well. In part, sentiment was lifted by some robust numbers from the final manufacturing PMIs. So the Euro Area number was revised up three-tenths from the flash print to 49.8, and the German number was revised up a full point to 49.5.  Alongside the PMIs, the latest Euro Area inflation numbers also settled in line with expectations, which eased fears that the ECB might need to pivot more hawkishly. So the flash CPI print was at +2.2%, and the core CPI print at +2.3%, only modestly above the ECB’s target. In turn, that helped front-end sovereign bonds to rally, with yields on 2yr bunds (-0.9bps) and OATs (-1.2bps ) moving lower, though yields were little changed at the 10yr point (+0.1bps for bunds, -0.4bps for OATs). Italian bonds outperformed (-0.8bps on 10yr) as Bloomberg reported that the country’s draft budget put the deficit at 3% of GDP already this year, matching the EU limit. If realised, that would be the first sub-3% deficit since 2019 before the Covid pandemic. It also contrasts with the French situation, where even former PM Bayrou’s proposals to reach a 3% deficit by 2029 were unable to pass. So that’s coincided with the Italian 10yr yield falling beneath France’s in recent weeks, and yesterday it closed 0.4bps beneath France’s. Asian equity markets are rallying this morning with the KOSPI (+3.01%) standing out as the top performer, reaching a record high, propelled by significant increases in Samsung Electronics, which is surging +4.50% to approach a six-year peak, and SK Hynix soaring +10.69% to a record high. This is following their preliminary agreement to supply chips to the artificial intelligence leader OpenAI. Elsewhere, the Hang Seng (+1.32%) is also trading significantly higher after resuming trading post holiday helped by a rally in key Chinese internet stocks. Mainland China remains closed. In other markets, the Nikkei (+0.89%) is also climbing along with the S&P/ASX 200 (+1.08%), supported by robust performance in local mining stocks. Meanwhile, trading volumes across the region have remained subdued due to a week-long holiday in mainland Chinese markets. S&P 500 (+0.10%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.19%) futures are also both edging up.  In early morning data, South Korea’s consumer inflation accelerated in September, rising by +2.1% year-on-year, slightly exceeding the +2.0% forecast, and recovering from a nine-month low of +1.7% recorded the previous month.  To the day ahead now, and central bank speakers include the Fed’s Logan, ECB Vice President de Guindos, the ECB’s Makhlouf and Villeroy, and BoJ Deputy Governor Uchida. Thu, 10/02/2025 - 08:22
The Vanishing American Dream: Why Young Adults Can't Afford Homes, Families, Or Stability The Vanishing American Dream: Why Young Adults Can't Afford Homes, Families, Or Stability , The American Dream has become prohibitively expensive, with home affordability at historic lows and the traditional middle-class lifestyle now out of reach for most ordinary people. image But no demographic has taken it more on the chin than young Americans. You can see it in stark terms in this week’s chart below. Since the postwar era, the share of 30-year-olds in America with both a family and a home has plummeted—from about 52% in 1950 to just 13% in 2025. That’s a staggering 75% decline over 75 years. image Let that sink in. In 1950, more than half of 30-year-olds had achieved what most would consider the basic markers of adult stability: marriage and homeownership. Today, it’s barely one in eight. If you look closer, the graph shows two distinct phases of decline. From 1950 to 1990, there was a steady but manageable erosion—the share of 30-year-olds with both a family and a home dropped from 52% to about 43% over those 40 years. That represented the gradual social changes we’re all familiar with: more women entering the workforce, people marrying later, changing cultural attitudes toward marriage. Then something dramatic happened around 2000. The decline went into freefall. Between 1990 and 2025, the rate collapsed from 43% to 13%—a 70% drop in just over three decades. What explains it? We could, of course, blame this on changing cultural preferences—young people choosing career over family, prioritizing experiences over stability. That’s certainly part of the story. Young people today do have very different priorities than those more than half a century ago. But there’s another side to this: the economics of young adulthood have become impossible. Keep in mind, today’s families would need the combined income of three households just to match the home affordability levels of a single family in 1959. The situation gets worse when you factor in the debt burden crushing young adults. The very institution supposedly preparing young people for economic success—college—has become a wealth destroyer. Average student debt more than doubled from $17,297 to $37,850 between 2006 and 2024 alone (with total outstanding student debt exploding from $500 billion to $1.8 trillion). Think about the brutal math facing today’s 30-year-olds. They graduate with an average of $38,000 in student debt—though plenty are actually walking away with $60,000, $80,000, or even six-figure debt loads. They need $130,000+ in annual income to afford the average home, and compete in a job market where wages haven’t kept pace with housing costs. In other words, they’re entering their peak family-formation years already financially crippled. No wonder marriage and homeownership rates have collapsed. The cruel irony is that we—scratch that, America’s political class—has created a system where the very credentials supposedly required for middle-class success have priced young people out of middle-class life. Editor’s Note: If you have young people in your life wondering what the future holds in this broken system, Doug Casey and Matt Smith’s “<a href="http://www.amazon.com/dp/B0FLRKYCCP" rel="nofollow">The Preparation</a>” offers a radical break from the usual path. Instead of piling on debt for credentials of questionable value, the book lays out a blueprint for building real competence and independence outside traditional institutions. For those willing to think differently about their future, it may be the most valuable roadmap available. <a href="http://www.amazon.com/dp/B0FLRKYCCP" rel="nofollow">Click here to learn more now.</a> Tue, 09/30/2025 - 19:15
Watch Live: Trump, Bibi Present Comprehensive Plan For Gaza Peace Watch Live: Trump, Bibi Present Comprehensive Plan For Gaza Peace WATCH LIVE  Access the full Trump 20-point plan for peace just issued by the White House below... President Donald J. Trump’s Comprehensive Plan to End the Gaza Conflict: 1. Gaza will be a deradicalized terror-free zone that does not pose a threat to its neighbors. 2. Gaza will be redeveloped for the benefit of the people of Gaza, who have suffered more than enough. 3. If… — Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) * * * President Trump is once again hosting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House on Monday, in order to mull the US president's Gaza peace proposal amid mounting support among Western nations for Palestinian statehood. It remains that of course neither Washington nor Israel is on board with such recognition, but Trump has wanted to see a swift resolution as the war approaches its two-year mark next week. This will be Netanyahu's fourth White House visit since Trump returned to office in January. Despite the red carpet constantly being rolled out for him in Washington, he faces growing international isolation, especially in Europe. During his last before the UN General Assembly in New York, he lashed out at the leaders of France, Great Britain, Australia, Canada, and other countries for "unconditionally" recognizing a Palestinian state. At the same time he thanked America for its firm pro-Israel stance. But Trump is optimistic that a deal with Hamas to secure the release of all hostages can be salvaged. He told Reuters on Sunday that he hopes to gain Netanyahu's support for a peace framework that would end the conflict in Gaza. "We're getting a very good response because Bibi wants to make the deal too," Trump said in a phone interview. "Everybody wants to make the deal." image Regional powers have reportedly been involved, including including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, Jordan, and Egypt - in planning and backing the agreement, which is crucial for its chances of success. "It’s called peace in the Middle East - more than Gaza. Gaza is part of it, but it’s peace in the Middle East," Trump said. Per the published schedule for https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/netanyahus-white-house-visit-to-include-lunch-meeting-press-conference/ : The meeting is scheduled to begin at 11 a.m. local time (6 p.m. in Israel), when Trump will greet Netanyahu, according to the itinerary. The two men will then hold a meeting and sit for a meal together, followed by the press conference, scheduled for 1:15 p.m. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt has previewed to reporters that "both sides have to give up a little bit and might leave the table a little bit unhappy." But it seems this conversation is only being had with one side, given no signs of direct Hamas involvement in these discussions.  The reality is that this month's Israeli attack on Hamas officials in Doha was likely the straw that broke the camel's back in terms of ending the possibility of negotiations. Hamas says its negotiating team was lured to Qatar precisely with the promise of a new deal on the horizon, only to be attacked in a brazen Israeli operation, leaving five dead, as as well as a Qatari security guard. So despite Trump's optimism for the future, chances aren't great, also at a time the IDF is pursuing the total takeover of Gaza City. Hamas has meanwhile made clear that it won't negotiate its own demise, while also wanting a full Israeli military withdrawal before all remaining hostages are released, but Netanyahu is still pledging to not end IDF operations until the complete eradication of Hamas is realized. Trump reportedly wants to see an immediate halt to all military operations, but will Israel comply? Will Hamas comply? Both seem remain locked in a zero sum fight at this point, so it seems increasingly unlikely. Earlier, we previewed the president's , which was first revealed over the weekend in Israeli media sources. Mon, 09/29/2025 - 14:27