Senate Passes 'National Day Of Remembrance For Charlie Kirk' Resolution Senate Passes 'National Day Of Remembrance For Charlie Kirk' Resolution The U.S. Senate passed a resolution on Sept. 18 expressing support for Oct. 14, 2025, to be designated a “National Day of Remembrance for Charlie Kirk,” the conservative commentator who was assassinated during an event at a Utah university on Sept. 10. image The https://www.rickscott.senate.gov/services/files/55A19212-1EC1-4868-A72B-8E271E2D81B2 , introduced by Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), recognizes Kirk’s contributions to civic education and public service. The date coincides with what would have been Kirk’s 32nd birthday. “Charlie was taken from us in a disgusting act of political violence on September 10, 2025, but his legacy lives on,” Scott the Senate floor before the resolution’s passage. In his remarks, Scott described Kirk as a “good man” whose life was “shaped by his faith and the idea that in America, debate and discussion are crucial to the betterment of our country.” “We have the opportunity to carry on his memory by believing in the power of our ideas, discussion, and the values of our nation,” he added. The simple resolution encourages educational institutions, civic organizations, and citizens to observe Oct. 14, 2025, “with appropriate programs, activities, prayers, and ceremonies” promoting civic engagement and the principles that Kirk championed. A simple resolution is used to the sentiments of a single house and does not create a federally mandated holiday. Kirk’s death has been at vigils and memorial services across the country, where students and community members have gathered to honor his life. This included vigils in . A similar resolution was introduced in the House of Representatives by Rep. Jimmy Patronis (R-Fla.). House Speaker Mike Johnson the House will pass the resolution to honor Kirk and to condemn the “political violence that led to his untimely passing.” “Charlie Kirk was more than a conservative thought leader. He was a fearless warrior of free speech, faith, and the principles that make America the greatest country in the world,” Patronis on Sept. 16. Kirk, who co-founded nonprofit organization Turning Point USA, was shot and killed on Sept. 10 while speaking to a crowd of students at Utah Valley University in Orem, Utah. He is survived by his wife, Erika Kirk, and their two young children. Erika was on Sept. 12, she emphasized that her late husband’s mission would continue. “I will never let your legacy die,” she said. “I'll make Turning Point USA the biggest thing this nation has ever seen.” Authorities have arrested Tyler Robinson, 22, as the suspected gunman. He faces multiple , including aggravated murder, felony discharge of a firearm causing serious bodily injury, witness tampering, and committing a violent offense in the presence of a child. Fri, 09/19/2025 - 08:55
This Is How People Actually Use ChatGPT, According To New Research This Is How People Actually Use ChatGPT, According To New Research What do people actually use ChatGPT for? It’s a question that has lingered since the tool first went viral back in 2022. Now, a 📄.pdf  sheds light on user behavior by analyzing a sample of 1.1 million messages from active ChatGPT users between May 2024 to July 2025. The findings, , show that ChatGPT’s core appeal is utility: helping users solve real-world problems, write better, and find information fast. image How People Use ChatGPT The table below summarizes the major use categories identified in the study: image Over 55% of ChatGPT prompts fell into either learning or productivity-related tasks. Users often turn to the chatbot for help understanding concepts, writing emails, summarizing articles, or coding. A wide base of users are using the tool as a digital assistant, tutor, or research aide. Meanwhile, niche categories like roleplaying and entertainment make up a smaller but meaningful slice. These uses include things like fictional storytelling, game design, and writing fan fiction. Their growth points to ChatGPT’s creative potential beyond functional tasks. Why This Study Matters This is the first large-scale analysis that classifies how ChatGPT is actually used, rather than relying on anecdotal evidence or surveys. It also reveals how people across professions—from marketers to software developers—are integrating AI into their daily workflows. Another key insight? Most people still use the free version of ChatGPT. Only about 10% of the prompts analyzed came from paid users of GPT-4, suggesting that even the free-tier model is driving  . Want to see how ChatGPT compares to other AI tools in terms of market share? Check out   on the Voronoi app. Fri, 09/19/2025 - 04:15
Did NASA Scientists Discover Possible Evidence Of Ancient Life On Mars? Did NASA Scientists Discover Possible Evidence Of Ancient Life On Mars? Evidence collected by NASA's Perseverance Rover, launched to Mars in 2020, suggests the possible existence of ancient life on the Red Planet.  The discovery, if verified, would be the first confirmation of life beyond the planet Earth. After a year if review, scientists believe the leopard spots on rocks observed near a location called the Neretva Vallis river valley (which shows geological signs of large bodies of flowing water) are the potential remains of microscopic organisms.  The rover targeted a rock outcropping called the "Bright Angel" formation which proved to be a viable site. The rover’s science instruments found that the formation’s sedimentary rocks are composed of clay and silt, which, on Earth, are excellent preservers of past microbial life. They also are rich in organic carbon, sulfur, oxidized iron (rust), and phosphorous.  “The combination of chemical compounds we found in the Bright Angel formation could have been a rich source of energy for microbial metabolisms,” said Perseverance scientist Joel Hurowitz of Stony Brook University, “But just because we saw all these compelling chemical signatures in the data didn’t mean we had a potential biosignature. We needed to analyze what that data could mean.” NASA's team of scientists carefully reviewed the data over the course of a year.    “After a year of review, they have come back and they said, listen, we can’t find another explanation,” said Acting NASA Administrator Sean Duffy. “So this very well could be the clearest sign of life that we’ve ever found on Mars, which is incredibly exciting.”  “The discovery of a potential biosignature, or a feature or signature that could be consistent with biological processes, but that requires further work and study to confirm a biological origin is something that we’re sharing with you all today that grows from years of hard work, dedication and collaboration between over 1,000 scientists and engineers here at the (NASA) Jet Propulsion Laboratory and our partner institutions around the country and internationally,” said Katie Stack Morgan, Perseverance project scientist at JPL, during a news conference Wednesday. The new announcement Wednesday is the result of a long, https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-09413-0 process and the collection of more data, said lead study author Joel Hurowitz, a planetary scientist at Stony Brook University in New York.  image Similar announcements of possible life on Mars have occurred since the very beginning of exploration.  In 1976 the Viking 1 and Viking 2 landers took soil samples which yielded positive readings of microbial activity, but the evidence was later deemed "ambiguous".   In 1996 a team of NASA scientists claimed to have found microscopic fossils of living organisms 4 billion years old in a Mars meteorite, but the data was labeled inconclusive due to suspicions of contamination. At one time, billions of years ago, Mars may have had very similar environmental and atmospheric conditions to the Earth, with all the necessary ingredients to feed living organisms.  The long running theory is that Mars lost it's magnetic field and solar winds destroyed it's atmosphere, though this claim remains unproven.  The events that led to Mars becoming a vast scorched red desert are still a mystery.    Thu, 09/18/2025 - 23:00
Rubio Says US Visa Revocations Underway After Charlie Kirk Death Celebrations Rubio Says US Visa Revocations Underway After Charlie Kirk Death Celebrations Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that foreign nationals who made celebratory comments over Charlie Kirk’s assassination will have their U.S. visas revoked, adding that the process is “underway.” “America will not host foreigners who celebrate the death of our fellow citizens,” Rubio wrote in a on X Monday. “Visa revocations are under way. If you are here on a visa and cheering on the public assassination of a political figure, prepare to be deported.” Kirk was shot and killed at Utah Valley University on Sept. 10 while he was speaking at a campus event. Prosecutors on Tuesday announced charges including capital aggravated murder, witness tampering, obstruction of justice, and more against Tyler Robinson, a 22-year-old Utah man who was arrested last week. image In an interview with Fox News on Monday, Rubio confirmed that the State Department will not grant visas to people who celebrated Kirk’s death and said that people who have U.S. visas will have their status revoked. “We are not in the business of inviting people to visit our country who are going to be involved in negative and destructive, okay,” Rubio told the outlet. “If I invite someone, if we invite someone to visit the United States of America, as a student, as a tourist, as whatever, then the standard they should be held to is very high.” Some social media users and influencers have made comments celebrating the Turning Point USA founder’s death, and some have been subsequently fired or suspended. Those include university employees, airline pilots, teachers, and doctors. An organization called the Charlie Kirk Data Foundation has that it has compiled more than 63,000 “data entries” in connection to an effort to compile those users. On Monday, Vice President JD Vance said that people who have made statements celebrating his assassination should be fired from their jobs. “Call their employer. We don’t believe in political violence, but we do believe in civility, and there is no civility in the celebration of political assassination,” Vance said as he hosted Kirk’s podcast. Last week, a State Department official that X users should inform the department about any visa holders making celebratory remarks online. “I have been disgusted to see some on social media praising, rationalizing, or making light of the event, and have directed our consular officials to undertake appropriate action,” Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau in a statement on X last week. Other Trump administration officials have signaled that the federal government may go after left-wing groups, NGOs, and their funding sources in the wake of Kirk’s death. Earlier this year, the State Department ordered U.S. Embassies to pause new student visa interviews, namely in relation to social media screening, an official The Epoch Times at the time. “We take very seriously the process of vetting who it is that comes into the country,” State Department spokeswoman Tammy Bruce told reporters in May. And in August, the Trump administration it would look into all 55 million visa holders in the United States. Wed, 09/17/2025 - 17:00
'Eastern Sentry': The New NATO Initiative To Protect The Eastern Flank 'Eastern Sentry': The New NATO Initiative To Protect The Eastern Flank Some eight NATO allies have prepared operation 'Eastern Sentry' following of Poland. It is a new joint military mission to bolster defense of Europe's eastern flank, also after Romania had more recently reported a Russian drone incursion, resulting in the scrambling of fighter jets to track it. "Following the Russian drone incursions into Poland, I have decided to deploy three Rafale fighter jets to contribute to the protection of Polish airspace and of NATO’s Eastern Flank together with our Allies," President Emmanuel Macron announced on X this week. Along with France, the effort includes the UK, Italy, Sweden, Germany, Denmark, Spain, and The Netherlands. More nations are expected to join. image UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has confirmed that his country will deploy Royal Air Force jets to Poland, while Italy will contribute two Eurofighter jets, and Germany has readied four Eurofighters. Denmark will also sent jets, and Czech Mi-171S helicopters have also arrived in Poland. Over 150 NATO troops have also initially arrived along with the equipment. Meanwhile, eastern European and Baltic countries are already calling for more, https://www.newsmax.com/globaltalk/latvia-nato-anti-drone-defense-systems/2025/09/16/id/1226556/ : Anti-drone defense systems in NATO countries still need to be developed, Latvia's President Edgars Rinkevics told a press conference on Tuesday. NATO on Friday launched "Eastern Sentry," a new military mission to bolster defense of Europe's eastern flank in response to Russian drone incursions into Polish airspace last week. The Washington Post https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/09/15/poland-ukraine-russia-no-fly-zone/  on Monday, "The incident raised serious questions about the alliance’s readiness to counter the relatively cheap, highly maneuverable but devastatingly destructive unmanned aerial vehicles that have redefined modern warfare since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022." Additionally, in a Monday , Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski called on NATO countries to impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine. "We as NATO and the EU could be capable of doing this, but it is not a decision that Poland can make alone; it can only be made with its allies," he said. NATO must impose no-fly zone over Ukraine to protect from Russian drones, Poland says — New York Post (@nypost) "Protection for our population — for example, from falling debris — would naturally be greater if we could combat drones and other flying objects beyond our national territory … If Ukraine were to ask us to shoot them down over its territory, that would be advantageous for us. If you ask me personally, we should consider it," he added. The Kremlin has essentially 'idiotic' and has made clear this would assure a direct Russia-NATO clash, likely leading to WW3. Much will depend on what Washington says, and its own potential role in 'Eastern Sentry'. Wed, 09/17/2025 - 04:15
Influence Operation? The EU Paid-Off €600,000 To Friendly Media Outlets Right After European Elections Influence Operation? The EU Paid-Off €600,000 To Friendly Media Outlets Right After European Elections While the European Union likes to throw out terms like “misinformation,” “disinformation,” and “influence campaigns,” the reality is that the EU is pumping millions into influencing public opinion itself. The difference is just that when Brussels does it, it is not supposed to be propaganda. image One European politician, MEP Petr Bystron, has revealed that the EU commission has provided Financial support to the American investigative network Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP) right after the 2024 EU elections. Major German news outlets like Spiegel, Zeit, and Süddeutsche Zeitung belong to the group, which is the world’s largest network of investigative media. These outlets are known for their hit pieces on conservative and right-wing parties, often at opportune times. Notably, Spiegel and Süddeutsche Zeitung’s reporting in 2019 on the Ibiza Affair scandal — which involved an undercover video of the Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) party’s leader — led to the toppling of the Austrian government at the time, which included the FPÖ. Many critics believed that due to the sophistication of the operation, which included an undercover actress, intelligence services may have played a role. The OCCRP group was founded in 2006 and is most well known for publishing the “Panama Papers” and the “Azerbaijan Laundromat” evasion scandals. After a massive flow of U.S. money was cut off to key European establishment outlets and NGOs, Brussels is stepping in to fill the gap. Namely, the Trump administration ended the massive levels of funding headed towards foreign organizations, particularly from USAID, which allowed them to pump out pro-EU and left-wing content to wide swathes of the population across Europe. The OCCRP group has received an extraordinary amount of money from U.S. taxpayers and other U.S. sources. According to  t, the group received nearly $50 million from U.S. sources, but these funders were not just generous donors. They also could dictate editorial agendas and veto staff appointments. Two  , a German state media network, questioned just how independent the OCCRP is in a 2024 report. The two determined that a significant portion of the money was coming from American funds, particularly from USAID. OCCRP was funneling content and material to German media outlets like Spiegel, Zeit, and Süddeutsche Zeitung. Since the revelations, Alternative for Germany (AfD) MEP Petr Bystron has officially requested the EU Commission to provide information about whether it also provides financial support to OCCRP. The response revealed that the organization has received €600,000 since November 2024 as part of an EU project to “strengthen” journalism. Known as the NEXT-U project, it aims to support European journalists and media organizations with training and tools for investigative journalism. The commission defends the grants, stating that the taxpayer money is transparently distributed and adheres to journalistic standards. Bystron argues that the ample amount of money amounts to an influence operation. “OCCRP media outlets like Der Spiegel received over 600,000 euros from the EU directly after the EU elections. These very media outlets manipulated the last EU elections through massive campaigns,” he said in an interview with  , which published the exclusive story first. The AfD MEP stated that the aim was to discredit conservative, right-wing politicians who are critical of the EU. As Remix News previously reported, Bystron is the focus of an investigation . He is accused of receiving funds from the news platform Voice of Europe, which was accused of being tied to wealthy pro-Russian backers. Czech intelligence reports were leaked to the press, claiming that Bystron was handing out bribes to right-wing politicians in exchange for interviews; however, Bystron has personally requested that the recordings be released to the public. So far, no such recording has emerged. Bystron has said these allegations are “paid propaganda.” “Every single one of these 22 searches was illegal. Each one marks a step away from a democratic constitutional state and toward an authoritarian regime that seeks to silence dissent by any means necessary,” Bystron told the   earlier this year. Notably, the allegations emerged right before the European Parliament elections, leading to calls that the timing of the allegations was politically motivated and designed to hamper the AfD’s popularity at a pivotal time. “We will not allow our election campaign to be dictated by manipulative accusations from foreign secret services,” said Bystron about the alleged recordings when the story first broke. In an interview with   at the time, AfD MEP Maximilian Krah, the lead candidate for the AfD in the EU parliament elections, stated that if Bystron truly took money from Russia, that would constitute a crime, and the authorities should simply arrest him. He notes that it is interesting that Bystron is not being charged and also called for the alleged audio recording to be released. Tue, 09/16/2025 - 03:30
Another Shutdown 'Looming' As GOP, Democrats Clash Over Stopgap Funding Bill Another Shutdown 'Looming' As GOP, Democrats Clash Over Stopgap Funding Bill With just over two weeks until yet another episode of government funding distraction theatre, Congress is bracing for a high-stakes showdown that could once again bring the federal government to the brink of a shutdown. image House Republicans this week plan to introduce a short-term measure, known as a continuing resolution, that would keep the government open until Nov. 20 while appropriators attempt to negotiate a broader deal on fiscal year 2026 spending. GOP leaders are framing the bill as a “clean” extension, free of partisan add-ons. But the proposal pointedly excludes provisions Democrats are demanding, particularly on health care. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) have said they will not support a stopgap that fails to address issues such as Medicaid cuts or Affordable Care Act premium subsidies. “If Republicans follow Donald Trump’s orders to not even bother dealing with Democrats, they will be single handedly putting our country on the path towards a shutdown,” a Schumer spokesperson told  . Republicans, led by Senate Minority Leader John Thune (R-SD), say they have no intention of adding health-care policy to a seven-week extension. “This is about buying time, not rewriting law,” Thune said last week. House Dynamics The first hurdle lies in the House. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) is under pressure to release the bill text soon, with Republicans traditionally granting 72 hours for review. With Democrats unlikely to support the measure, Johnson can afford to lose no more than two GOP votes. And since Kentucky Republican Thomas Massie is expected to oppose the measure, Johnson is left with almost no margin for error. Johnson is expected to argue that failing to pass a GOP-only bill would weaken Republicans’ leverage in the negotiations. But conservatives remain wary, fearing the Senate could eventually force through a bipartisan long-term deal more favorable to Democrats. Senate Timetable Should the House pass the bill, the Senate could begin work later in the week. Without unanimous consent, processing the measure could consume several days, potentially cutting into the chamber’s planned recess for Rosh Hashanah. Schumer and Jeffries are preparing to filibuster the GOP bill, raising the risk of a shutdown if neither side budges. Both parties appear confident in their positions. Republicans argue Democrats are overreaching; Democrats counter that Republicans are refusing to negotiate. Historically, Republicans have absorbed more political blame in shutdown fights. Security Questions Amid the funding standoff, security for lawmakers has emerged as another point of tension. The White House has requested $58 million for executive and judicial branch security, with the Trump administration indicating support for extending additional protection to lawmakers. Democrats, still unsettled by recent threats, held a call Sunday with U.S. Capitol Police Chief Michael Sullivan to discuss extending the $5,000-per-month member security allowance, set to expire at the end of September. With only 15 days remaining before current funding lapses, the chances of a shutdown are rising. Democrats are signaling unity behind their leadership, while Republicans are struggling to maintain cohesion in the House. Unless one side concedes, the standoff Mon, 09/15/2025 - 20:30
'FAFO': Texas Tech Student Who 'Danced On Kirk's Grave' Arrested, Expelled After Aggressive Confrontation 'FAFO': Texas Tech Student Who 'Danced On Kirk's Grave' Arrested, Expelled After Aggressive Confrontation We're all for free speech - even disgusting free speech... but then there's assault. A Texas Tech student found herself in hot water after mocking the brutal assassination of Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk during a prayer vigil for the prominent conservative activist. image Camryn Giselle Booker, 18, was caught on camera jumping around, yelling at students, and shoving her phone on the faces of people honoring Kirk, callously shouting, “Fcuk y’all homie dead, he got shot in the head.” The outrageous behavior didn’t stop there. Booker confronted a man in a red MAGA hat, who groaned and remarked while panning to her, “Evil is real, people — and it kind of looks like that.” Update: she was arrested and expelled from her college — GABRIEL™ 🪽 (@TheGabriel72) The footage shows Booker erupting when someone off-camera suggested she was being too emotional. “I’m not being emotional, ma’am. Don’t tell me what I am and what I’m not,” she snapped. “’You could get out of my face ’cause I can tell you what you are, but you won’t like it.” image "I want to be left alone," said a man in a MAGA hat, before someone told Booker she was being emotional.  According to the Daily Mail; The situation then escalated when Booker allegedly shoved several people, including an elderly veteran and a young mother with her child - which prompted a physical altercation that spread into the street. Booker was then taken into custody and was charged with battery, disorderly conduct and resisting arrest and was cited for assault. She was released on a $200 bond the next day, the Lubbock County Sheriff's Office confirmed to the Daily Mail. Booker then played the race card (shocking, we know), accusing vigil attendees of bigotry for calling out her disgraceful conduct. “I’m not being aggressive. My voice is very calm. You’re calling me aggressive because I’m a black woman,” she claimed. Texas Governor Greg Abbott (R) didn’t hold back, sharing an image of Booker in handcuffs. “This is what happened to the person who was mocking Charlie Kirk’s assassination at Texas Tech,” he wrote, adding the blunt acronym “FAFO” — short for “Fuck around and find out.” This is what happened to the person who was mocking Charlie Kirk’s assassination at Texas Tech. FAFO — Greg Abbott (@GregAbbott_TX) Booker was hit with charges of battery, disorderly conduct, and resisting arrest, with an additional citation for assault, according to the . She was released on a measly $200 bond the next day. Texas Tech has since expelled her for her appalling actions. Texas Tech University told in a statement that the "referenced individual is no longer enrolled at Texas Tech University." "Any behavior that denigrates victims of violence is reprehensible, has no place on our campus, and is not aligned with our values," the spokesperson the news outlet. Kirk was gunned down on stage Wednesday evening during a packed "American Comeback Tour" event at Utah Valley University in Orem, Utah. Video footage captured the horrifying moment as Kirk, mid-debate on transgender gun violence with a heckling audience member, recoiled in agony from a sniper's bullet to the neck, collapsing in a pool of his own blood before stunned bodyguards and supporters dragged him to safety. A 22-year-old suspect, Tyler Robinson, has since been apprehended after a frantic 33-hour manhunt fueled by surveillance images, but the alleged assassin refuses to cooperate. Utah Governor Spencer Cox (R) living with a transgender person, Lance Twiggs, with whom he was in a romantic relationship. *  *  * EDC Or Mon, 09/15/2025 - 18:25
Beyond The Fed, My Droog Beyond The Fed, My Droog By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities Beyond the Fed, My Droog We will spend a few minutes on the Fed because it is pretty much obligatory ahead of the FOMC, though hopefully our view has been quite clear. Then we will touch on Russia/Ukraine as there have been some really interesting developments. We got to cover a lot of topics that generated a lot of feedback on Wednesday morning on https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2025-09-10/bloomberg-surveillance-9-10-2025-video (Academy’s segment starts at the 6:45 mark). The Fed We laid out a bunch of hypotheticals in August on how Currently, according to WIRP, the market is pricing in 1.04 cuts at this meeting, 1.9 cuts in October, and 2.8 cuts by the end of the December meeting. image That seems a touch low. We remain in the 75 to 100 bp cut camp for the year, so there is room to price in a higher probability of 4 cuts this year than the market currently has priced in. For this meeting, we see a 0.00001% chance of no cuts (we guess there is always some possibility), but only a 60% chance of 25 bps, with a 40% chance of 50 bps. Actually, we only view it as a 25% chance, but this seemed like a good opportunity to dig up a fun report in the Wall Street Journal that we were involved with – https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-do-pundits-never-get-it-wrong-call-a-40-chance-1519662425?msockid=189708439bcb686a3de61e239a666987   The market doesn’t seem to be prepared for a big shift to the dovish side. We think a bigger cut than 25 has a real shot, and that the dots could surprise with more cuts occurring sooner. Our assumption is there are always some people who don’t have a strong opinion, and for ease, just adopt the consensus and/or the recommendation of the leader. So, Powell had what seemed like more support, or conversely, less obvious dissent than really existed. With the tide changing at the Fed, and other voices gaining strength as we prepare for a new Chair, it seems reasonable to assume some of those who just followed along as hawks will now follow along as doves – impacting the messaging. Any mention of “additional” measures does not seem priced in at all. It is probably too early to mention that things like another Operation Twist are on the table (Operation Twist is where the Fed sells shorter-term bond holdings to buy longer-maturity bonds). The Treasury Department announced https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0212 This fits with our theme of a “tandem” approach to managing the yield curve. Where the Treasury and Fed work in conjunction with each other to complement their tools. This helps contain the longer end of the curve, and also likely generates some revenue to create lower deficits (I haven’t confirmed this, but to the extent they are buying bonds below par and retiring them, there should be an accounting gain). Probably a touch early for Powell to address some non-traditional programs (though they now seem pretty standard), but even after recent flattening, you seem to be getting this potential option very cheaply. Though maybe he could admit that changes in short-term rates are not as effective (as a policy tool) as they once were. Finally, we are seeing rate cut expectations increase, while curves flatten for two other reasons, which we’ve mentioned before: By having so many credible candidates for the Fed discuss their views, almost all being more dovish than Powell has been, it makes it seem less “egregious” or even “normal” to cut (we were in the “should cut in July camp” but that view has gone from potentially being accused of being politically motivated, to validated by the data). Cuts justified by weak economic data (jobs) do not force the curve steeper. The corollary, or counterpoint, or outlet of this view is a weaker dollar. We could see a break below 90 on DXY. Given the administration’s desire to reduce imports and increase exports, a weaker dollar would likely be viewed (behind closed doors, because we “cannot” publicly say we have a weak dollar policy) as a feature and not a bug. image China Trade Talks China has the upper hand in regards to controlling “usable” rare earths and critical minerals. They refine and process the vast majority of rare earths and critical minerals. Even as the U.S. starts getting access to the rare earths and minerals themselves, it will take years, heavy investment, and potentially a lot of deregulation, to be sufficient in producing the “usable” forms of these crucial components for so many products. The U.S. has the upper hand in chips for AI and data centers, but China seems to be digging in their heels in this area to promote and develop their domestic chip industry – which is far behind but seems to be closing the gap in some segments. Secondary tariffs on trade with Russia? We will delve into Russia next, but the idea that the U.S. may be close to getting Europe to place high secondary tariffs on China (after which the U.S. would follow suit) has gained a lot of traction. It seems difficult to believe that it will occur, but it would be incredibly disruptive. It seems like it would be very difficult to get China to negotiate in good faith on a bilateral deal if the U.S. is really pushing hard on this front (because China would not see the U.S. negotiating in good faith under these circumstances). I find this chart mesmerizing as it seems so counter-intuitive from the news flow, yet it is real. image Every day we are inundated with “all-time high” headlines. We get a lot of coverage on our policies and the impacts they are (or are not) having here. We hear so little about China, clearly the country where policy should be focused. Yet, since the election, FXI is up 60% versus 23% for QQQ. 34% versus 15% since the start of the year in favor of FXI. QQQ holds a slight edge since the post-Liberation Day lows (40% versus 38%). A portion of the return is related to FX, another portion can be attributed to positioning, but there is something about this chart that captivates me and makes me wonder how well we are doing as the globe tries to adapt to big changes in US policy. The chart would look worse if we focused on the Russell 2000 which hasn’t benefited as much as the Nasdaq 100 from the spending on AI and Data Centers. Ra Ra Ras PUTIN Thinking about some big changes in Europe this week got this song stuck in my head. Some of the lyrics seem to apply just as well to Putin as to Rasputin (most people looked at him with terror and fear). “There was a cat that really was gone. It was a shame how he carried on. In all affairs of state, he was the man to please. The demands to do something about this outrageous man became louder and louder.” I was shocked that this song was not a one-hit wonder, but we digress. It also seems like a good time to channel some Clockwork Orange, my droog, as the violence and “aggro” have the potential to escalate – which unfortunately, may be a necessary step towards achieving peace. image Academy published a SITREP this week – . This incident caused Poland to invoke Article 4 of the NATO treaty to prompt a formal discussion within the alliance. The SITREP analyzes the situation extremely well. We’ve already addressed the “chatter” about actually, truly enforcing sanctions and we briefly addressed secondary tariffs against China (with India being the other target, and more likely to face some tariffs than China). Finally, after over 3 years, our quotes in Time Magazine – may turn out to be incorrect. At the time, we argued that the willingness to truly enforce sanctions were low, therefore sanctions would be ineffective. We would turn a blind eye to strategies that would avoid sanctions (like some of the “stans” suddenly having massive trade with Europe – wonder where they were getting the stuff to sell? Or China and India not abiding by sanctions). It is time to turn the screws on Putin economically. When we argued, post-election, that President Trump could be successful in achieving a relatively quick cessation of hostilities, we laid out the carrots and sticks that would likely be needed on both sides. We all know how the first Oval Office meeting between Trump and Zelensky went. Ukraine seemed to be getting the stick, while Russia primarily got carrots. That has been changing over time. The new “circle” where the U.S. sells weapons to Europe which in turn “provides” them to Ukraine seems to be renewing the flow of equipment to Ukraine (without adding to the deficit woes of the U.S.). There seems to be more willingness (if not encouragement) to allow the Ukrainians to implement pretty standard tactics (like hitting supplies and disrupting transit in Russia). Many of these tactics had been denied to Ukraine in the past. With the Department of War and Peace Through Strength there is reason to believe that Ukraine will be able to do more. This new system somewhat resembles the proxies we have been facing. Did the U.S. supply the weapons? No. Not directly.  Did the U.S. give permission for Ukraine to use the weapons they have, of U.S. origin, more effectively? No, but we didn’t say they couldn’t. More carrots for Ukraine and a bit of a stick for Russia. But that isn’t what we want to talk about. Russia’s Frozen Reserves Finally, the President seemed to encourage Europe to take steps to “take” some of Russia’s frozen reserves. There is approximately $300 billion of frozen reserves. The vast majority of this sits in the European Union as, according to Grok, over $200 billion (of euros) was frozen. Our understanding is that some of the $65 or so billion of USD reserves frozen are not fully controlled by the United States. We’ve written about this multiple times as a key element to forcing any peace. We also discussed our very strong view that the President was extremely reluctant to take or use Putin’s frozen USD reserves. There was a view in the admin that the U.S. didn’t have the law on its side. It is also possible, that at the time, the admin wasn’t willing to be too aggressive, as the President seemed to believe that his relationship with Putin would be enough to achieve peace, and threatening his reserves would not help their relationship. We have heard from multiple sources that Putin fully expects to receive these reserves (it seems logical, that behind the scenes, some countries helping him the most, have helped him “monetize” these reserves, making their “freezing” less effective). Well, Europe keeping a big chunk of the money would be a wakeup call for Putin. It “solves” the issue of how Ukraine (or Europe) is going to afford the weapons they are buying from the U.S. $200 billion is one heck of a war chest. Europe in general, and Ukraine in particular have a stronger case for war reparations. Could it be as simple as Ukraine, in some international court, wins war reparations? But since Russia won’t pay, Europe would then provide the money from the funds? Not sure how this plays out, but Russia’s frozen reserves seem to be on the table for the first time and that is a big stick. Is there a chance that Putin has promised some of this money (once it was returned) to his backers? That seems plausible as they are running what was already an anemic economy on a wartime footing. Not going to say that could be akin to borrowing from a loan shark, but in the movies that rarely works out well. This could mean there is even more pressure on Putin to get the money returned than we know. Threatening Russia’s frozen reserves may be the best thing I’ve seen in terms of pushing this conflict towards some sort of deal. European Bond Rally? Imagine if Europe is successful in keeping even $100 billion? What does that do for their borrowing needs? For their borrowing needs for defense spending? Part of the reason we have seen yields behave stubbornly across the globe is concerns about the amount of spending Europe needs to embark on to meet their commitments on military spending. (Japan has been a big problem too for global yields, but let’s just focus on the European contribution to higher global yields here). Btw, there is supposedly $37 billion in pounds that England might be happy to get their hands on. They Didn’t Quit, They Wanted His Head Wow, that song is really stuck in my head, but I cannot reiterate how profound Friday’s “nod” to go after Russia’s frozen reserves is. That along with Article 4 from NATO and an admin that does not seem afraid to be tougher on sanctions and tariffs (in no small part because it hurts the U.S. less than it hurts Europe to go in that direction) could pave the way for some real progress. We always thought that this would be about balancing carrots and sticks with the two combatants, and that balance seems to be happening. Look for American corporations to be given big advantages over corporations from other countries in any rebuilding efforts once peace is achieved. We believe this is an important goal for the administration as they feel we did not get enough of a head start/advantage after the Gulf Wars. Bottom Line Lower yields, flatter curves. In no small part because of global economic sluggishness, as the world adapts to a new trade order. image Peace between Russia and Ukraine, especially if it accompanies taking some of Russia’s frozen reserves, would help bonds, and we don’t think that is on anyone’s radar. The equity grind continues. Good news is good. Bad news is good. No news is good. We did say last week that we thought there was a better chance of 5% downside before 5% upside. Even though we “only” got 1.6% this week on the S&P 500, we are still sticking with that view, though with yields coming down, potential surprises from the Fed, and what we see as an improvement in the odds of some peace in Europe, it is difficult to stick to that view. Credit remains boring in a “good” way and crypto continues to benefit from this shift to easier monetary policy in the U.S., the momentum created by the GENIUS Act, and other regulatory actions. Hopefully, you are reading this while enjoying some coffee and moloko as you prepare for what should be another interesting week. Sun, 09/14/2025 - 15:10
Europe On "High Alert" As Polish Moms Train For War Against Russia Europe On "High Alert" As Polish Moms Train For War Against Russia A recent incident in Polish airspace involving at least three Russian drones has inspired hysteria in greater Europe (stoked by EU politicians and the media).  The event, which involved what appear to be Russian reconnaissance drones, is similar to previous incidents of purported Russian UAVs shot down after crossing into NATO skies.  No attacks, no casualties and no clear intent of invasion.  However, the presence of these drones in Polish skies, even if their flight path was only meant to take them to Ukraine, is enough to fuel European calls for possible escalation.  The EU and UK continue to insist on deployment of "peace keeping" troops to intervene in the Ukraine war, with France, Germany and Britain suggesting boots on the ground to reinforce the now faltering Ukrainian front lines.  The Polish Foreign Minister, Radoslaw Sikorski, asserts that the drone incursion is part of a Russian plot to "test NATO reactions without triggering a full scale war".  The Polish claim that at least 19 drones were involved in the incursion and that the devices had traveled "hundreds of miles" before they were intercepted.  Only three to four drones are confirmed to have been shot down.  This means that either Poland has possibly the worst air defenses in NATO, or, the reported number of drones is greatly inflated.  “The drones didn’t reach their targets and there was minor damage to property, nobody was hurt. If it happened in Ukraine, by Ukrainian definitions, that would be regarded as a 100% success,” Silorski said.  But the drones had no ordnance attached and there is no evidence that they were targeting anything or anyone. As President Donald Trump noted, the crossing into Poland was more likely a mistake.  This response has angered the Europeans, who are desperate for US involvement in the war.  Poland's response has set the country on "high alert".  Troops have been reinforced and the border with Belarus has been closed.  The government is now sponsoring voluntary military .  Open to the public, the training has attracted over 20,000 recruits including Polish mothers, who say they want to "protect their children". The idea is logical enough, though the deployment of women for front line combat is generally an act of desperation rather than sound strategic policy.  It is interesting that a country which practices strict gun control and eligibility requirements for citizens is suddenly so interested in using those citizens as a militia reserve against a hypothetical Russian invasion.  Ukraine suffered from similar restrictions on its citizens before they were invaded and this stunted their defensive capabilities.    EU officials say the drone event is an "aggressive, reckless act" and is “part of a serious escalation by Russia,” only reinforcing the bloc’s “support and resolve to support Ukraine.” The problem, though, is a matter off logistical realities.  Europe's contributions to NATO defenses are minimal and the vast majority of military spending has long been covered by US taxpayers.  Europe's ability to manufacture the weapons needed to fight a prolonged conflict with Russia is next to nil and the means to supply their forces with enough equipment and resources to engage in an attrition war does not exist.    image The US military is the only force with the resources to manage a long term war in Ukraine, which is why the EU continues to demand that the Trump Administration commit to escalation.  European officials have been encouraging Volodymyr Zelensky's ambitions to take back lost Ukrainian territory with talk of potential EU troops.  This has extended the life of the war and sabotaged efforts to organize diplomatic talks.   Currently, Russian forces are surging on the Eastern front and Ukraine is facing the loss of the entire Donbas region.  Central Ukraine is also at risk as Ukrainian troop strength dwindles.  Analysts outside of typical western propaganda networks argue that Ukraine is facing a total loss unless a resolution is achieved in the near future. Sun, 09/14/2025 - 13:25