"Your 'Equity' Is Fake" - Robinhood Faces Backlash After OpenAI Denounces Tokenized Shares "Your 'Equity' Is Fake" - Robinhood Faces Backlash After OpenAI Denounces Tokenized Shares OpenAI has publicly rejected Robinhood’s new “OpenAI tokens,”   in the company. image Key Takeaways OpenAI disavowed Robinhood’s tokenized equity products, stating they do not grant real ownership in OpenAI. The tokens offer indirect exposure through a Special Purpose Vehicle, not direct shares. Elon Musk and others have criticized Robinhood’s efforts as misleading. The move highlights growing tensions between crypto innovation and traditional private equity rules. In a clash that is drawing widespread attention across finance and tech circles, OpenAI has forcefully rejected Robinhood’s latest effort to sell “OpenAI tokens” to retail investors. The controversy erupted after Robinhood announced it would distribute these tokens to European Union users, promoting them as a way for everyday people to gain exposure to private company equity using blockchain technology. While Robinhood framed the move as  , OpenAI and key industry voices have condemned the tokens as misleading and lacking in substance. OpenAI’s Public Statement: No Equity, No Endorsement OpenAI, the well-known artificial intelligence company, issued a rare public statement from its official newsroom account, clearly distancing itself from Robinhood’s offering. “These ‘OpenAI tokens’ are not OpenAI equity. We did not partner with Robinhood, were not involved in this, and do not endorse it. Any transfer of OpenAI equity requires our approval—we did not approve any transfer. Please be careful,” the company  . These “OpenAI tokens” are not OpenAI equity. We did not partner with Robinhood, were not involved in this, and do not endorse it. Any transfer of OpenAI equity requires our approval—we did not approve any transfer. Please be careful. — OpenAI Newsroom (@OpenAINewsroom) OpenAI’s response was triggered by Robinhood’s announcement earlier in the week, in which the fintech platform rolled out tokenized shares of OpenAI, SpaceX, and other major private firms. These digital assets were distributed to select users in the EU as part of a promotional giveaway. Robinhood’s Defense: Democratizing Private Assets Robinhood’s leadership responded by defending the program, emphasizing that the tokens are designed to give retail investors indirect access to previously exclusive markets. A spokesperson for Robinhood clarified, “These tokens give retail investors indirect exposure to private markets, opening up access, and are enabled by Robinhood’s ownership stake in a special purpose vehicle.” Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev echoed this sentiment, stating, “While it is true that they are not technically ‘equity,’ the tokens effectively give retail investors exposure to these private assets. Our giveaway plants a seed for something much bigger, and since our announcement we have been hearing from many private companies that are eager to join us in the tokenization revolution.” The company rolled out the tokens as part of a broader effort to introduce tokenized stocks and real-world asset trading for European customers, building on a newly launched layer two blockchain network for settling tokenized equity trades. What Are Investors Actually Buying? Despite Robinhood’s promotional messaging, the underlying structure of the tokens is complex and layered. Investors are not purchasing actual shares of OpenAI or direct stakes in the company. The tokens represent contracts linked to Robinhood’s ownership interest in an SPV, which itself holds shares of private companies. This means buyers are two steps removed from actual equity, and the value of the tokens may diverge significantly from the true value of the underlying shares. According to Robinhood’s help center, users buying these tokens are acquiring “tokenized contracts that follow the price” of the underlying assets, recorded on blockchain. Industry Pushback and Criticism The move by Robinhood has attracted strong criticism, both from within the industry and from high-profile figures. , co-founder of OpenAI and SpaceX, took to X to call the equity claims “fake,” highlighting his broader concerns about OpenAI’s shift toward a for-profit model. Your “equity” is fake — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) Industry analysts note that private companies typically guard their cap tables and limit share sales to selected investors, making Robinhood’s approach unusual and controversial. In similar instances, other startups like Figure AI have sent cease-and-desist letters to brokers marketing unauthorized share sales, underlining how sensitive private companies are about third parties trading or referencing their equity. Broader Context: Tokenization and Financial Inclusion Robinhood’s foray into tokenized private equity reflects a larger trend in finance, where crypto exchanges and platforms seek to offer access to previously inaccessible asset classes such as private equity, private credit, and commercial real estate. Traditionally, these assets are reserved for accredited investors with significant wealth or credentials, limiting opportunities for the average retail customer. Robinhood argues that tokenization and asset fractionalization can help break down these barriers, though critics warn that regulatory and ethical questions remain unresolved. CoinLaw’s Takeaway This episode is a clear signal of the growing friction between fast-moving crypto innovation and the strict, carefully controlled world of private company finance. While Robinhood presents tokenization as a breakthrough for retail investors, OpenAI’s sharp rebuke makes it clear that not all stakeholders see it that way. Investors should scrutinize exactly what is being offered and recognize that buying a token does not always mean owning a share in the world’s biggest private companies. Thu, 07/03/2025 - 12:00
Democrat Civil War Intensifies As Obamaworld Opposes Mamdani Democrat Civil War Intensifies As Obamaworld Opposes Mamdani The Democrat Party is grappling with internal divisions following Democratic Socialist Zohran Mamdani’s upset victory in New York City’s Democrat mayoral primary election this week. Mamdani, a 33-year-old New York State Assembly member, decisively defeated disgraced former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo with 56% to 44% in the final ranked-choice voting results. Two prominent Obama-era officials, former Treasury Secretary Jack Lew and former Office of Management and Budget Director Peter Orszag, have publicly opposed Mamdani’s candidacy, warning that his progressive economic policies could harm New York City. image In a CNBC interview on Wednesday, Lew expressed deep concern about Mamdani’s platform. “The policies that he outlines are not policies that would be good for New York,” Lew said. “I worry deeply, having spent most of my life in New York, about a city I call home.” He further cautioned against populist-driven policies from both political extremes, stating, “I see a similarity between policies solutions to the left and the right that satisfy populist sentiment, don’t always go through the filter of ‘do they work? I don’t think they work. I think that’s a problem,” Lew added. Orszag, now Chairman and CEO of Lazard, similar apprehensions in a separate CNBC interview last week, describing Mamdani’s victory as indicative of troubling trends within the Democratic Party. “Let me step back and just say that I am saddened to say that I think the Democratic Party is becoming increasingly antisemitic and anti-capitalism,” Orszag said. “And the thing about it is turning … towards socialism and turning away from your moral principles through antisemitism never works. So there is a fundamental concern that I have and I think many people have about the direction of the Democratic Party along those two dimensions.” Orszag pointed to specific examples, noting, “The Democratic candidate for mayor has embraced the ‘global intifada’ idea.” He also criticized the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee for distributing fundraising emails from a senior operative who suggested Jewish donors are primarily motivated by tax cuts. image “I am hopeful that the Democratic Party will change course and, again, history shows that neither being anti-capitalism nor being antisemitic is the pathway to any sort of good outcome,” Orszag added. Mamdani’s win is just one example of growing tensions within the Democrat Party. Similar concerns about the party’s direction have surfaced elsewhere. In June, David Hogg, the 25-year-old Parkland shooting survivor and gun control activist, resigned as vice chair of the Democrat National Committee (DNC) amid internal turmoil. Hogg faced backlash for his controversial plan to intervene in primary races against incumbent Democrats, which many viewed as divisive and a breach of DNC neutrality. After the DNC called for a new election for his position citing procedural issues, Hogg chose not to run again. In his departure, he sharply criticized the party, its leadership a “government of old people” fixated on “attention and reputation” rather than addressing critical issues like the economy. Meanwhile, Randi Weingarten - longtime head of the 1.8 million-member American Federation of Teachers have also quit the DNC.  Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) has also frustration with the party’s lack of cohesion during a speech at the Center for American Progress on Thursday. “We’re like a solar system with no sun ... We don’t act as a team, and when we don’t work as a team, we turn our guns on each other, and it’s so, so, so, fruitless,” she said. Slotkin emphasized the need for unified leadership, saying, “They are the leaders of the House and Senate. I work with them every single day. I push on them every day, especially in the Senate. I think they would attest to that. And we need to work as a team, and we need wartime generals who are gonna get us there because of what’s going on in the country.” The lawmaker also acknowledged internal and grassroots pressure for change but offered no specific solutions, noting, “I have no big announcement to make. I would just say the pressure is there from inside the caucus, but also from the grassroots.” Thu, 07/03/2025 - 11:30
Supreme Court To Hear Challenges To State Laws Keeping Males Out Of Female Sports Supreme Court To Hear Challenges To State Laws Keeping Males Out Of Female Sports The Supreme Court agreed on July 3 to consider whether states can ban male athletes who don’t identify with their sex from competing on school sports teams intended for females. image The decisions to grant the petitions for certiorari, or review, in two separate cases were 📄.pdf on a list of orders. No justices dissented. The court did not explain the decisions. The first case, Little v. Hecox, is about Idaho’s Fairness in Women’s Sports Act, “which ensures that women and girls do not have to compete against men and boys no matter how those men and boys identify,” according to the 📄.pdf filed in the case. The second case, West Virginia v. B.P.J., is about a similar law in West Virginia. State lawmakers voted to keep the sexes separate in sports because of the “inherent physical differences between biological males and biological females,” according to the 📄.pdf filed in the case. The two cases are expected to be argued separately. The Supreme Court is expected to hold oral arguments for the cases in its new term that begins in October. Thu, 07/03/2025 - 11:10
California Officials Tout New Crime Stats But Report Lacks Full Picture California Officials Tout New Crime Stats But Report Lacks Full Picture A July 1 📄.pdf from the California attorney general’s office showed crime headed downward in the state. image Data from 2024 showed a 6 percent decrease in violent crime, an 8.4 percent drop in property crime, a more than 10 percent dip in homicides, and 6.5 percent fewer aggravated assaults. The report also revealed motor vehicle thefts decreased by over 15 percent, while arsons dropped nearly 10 percent and burglaries dipped by more than 9 percent. The robbery rate also decreased by 6.3 percent, according to the 2024 data. California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Attorney General Rob Bonta applauded the new data. “In the wake of a nationwide spike in crime during the pandemic, California made the choice to invest—not abandon—our communities,” Newsom said in a  Wednesday.  “While Republicans in Congress push a bill that would gut law enforcement funding and the President focuses on arresting farmworkers, California is showing what real public safety looks like: serious investments, strong enforcement, and real results.” The reports, however, have incomplete and missing crime data from some of California’s most populated areas. Newsom’s office did not return a request asking whether the governor was aware of the gaps. The state was unable to fully collect data because of staffing and reporting issues in Los Angeles, San Diego, and Kern counties. The San Diego Sheriff’s Department, serving nearly 1 million, transitioned to a new system in November, which caused its December counts to be low, the state reported. In Los Angeles County, Downey Police Department, which serves more than 113,200 residents, was unable to report its 2024 data. Central California’s Kern County data was also incomplete. The Arvin and Wasco police department were not able to report data for the year for nearly 46,300 residents, the state noted. Imperial, Plumas, San Joaquin, and Shasta counties—serving nearly 1.2 million residents combined—also did not submit a full year of data to the state. image An officer puts up tape at a crime scene. Samantha Laurey/AFP via Getty Images The Brawley Police Department and Plumas County Sheriff’s Office were unable to provide any reports for 2024. Redding Police Department omitted December’s data because of agency challenges and Lodi began reporting in August 2024 because of system issues, according to the report. Bonta said the crime data were a critical part of understanding the status of statewide crime issues. “Transparency is key for understanding, preventing, and combating crime in our communities,” Bonta said in a Tuesday. “While crime rates have declined over the past year, public safety in our communities remains priorities one, two, and three.” image Attorney General Rob Bonta speaks as Gov. Gavin Newsom looks on during a news conference at Gemperle Orchard on April 16, 2025 in Ceres, California. Justin Sullivan/Getty Images Law enforcement agencies have undergone a transition nationwide in crime reporting. In 2016, the FBI director announced the bureau was transitioning to a National Incident-Based Reporting System by 2021. https://www.fbi.gov/how-we-can-help-you/more-fbi-services-and-information/ucr/nibrs reporting aims to provide a more complete picture than the previous system, known as summary reporting, by including more information on victims, known offenders, and relationships between victims and offenders, according to the FBI’s website. The California Department of Justice began a five-year effort to develop and implement a new state data repository called the California Incident-Based Reporting System to house the new stats. The repository combines the federal data requirements with added data specific to California, which began collecting data in 2021. However, not all of the state’s law enforcement agencies have transitioned, according to Tuesday’s report. Thu, 07/03/2025 - 10:30
On The Cusp: House Democrats Stall 'Big Beautiful Bill' For Hours After GOP Votes To Advance On The Cusp: House Democrats Stall 'Big Beautiful Bill' For Hours After GOP Votes To Advance Overnight, most of the Republican holdouts on the 'Big Beautiful Bill' relented, flipping their support to advance the legislation to a final vote on the House floor after several deals were cut with President Trump. Earlier in the morning, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) kept the procedural vote open for almost six hours - which once passed would kick off debate before final passage.  image House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), however, decided to throw a massive tantrum that's been going on for more than five hours in what's known as the "magic minute," a privilege for party leaders in the chamber that allows them to speak for as long as they want. According to  , Jeffries was seen arriving with multiple binders - one of which he read from for around three hours. If the rest of the binders also contain portions of his speech, we could be waiting for a while. If Jeffries speaks until at least 1:26 p.m. he'll break the record for the longest floor speech held by former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who spoke for 8 hours and 32 minutes, according to Punchbowl News' Jake Sherman. The move comes after the House burned the midnight oil to advance the $3.3 trillion 'Big Beautiful Bill' to its final phase in Congress. The GOP holdouts were convinced to flip after President Trump promised them that he would use his executive powers to vigorously enforce certain provisions for green energy tax credits. Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) was a one-man rollercoaster for the GOP leadership. Massie railed against the bill all week. He initially voted for the rule. But then at 11:30 p.m., Massie entered a mostly empty House chamber and switched his vote from yes to no. However, Massie – who Trump has personally targeted for defeat in 2026 – switched again back to yes when all the hardliners flipped. The GOP leadership hopes that Massie will vote for final passage later this morning. And he has made clear that he would like Trump to stop attacking him. - "He did a masterful job of laying out how we could improve it, how he could use his chief executive office, use things to make the bill better," Rep. Ralph Norman of South Carolina told CNBC.  This comes after multiple Republicans were seen in the West Wing on Wednesday to cut deals as Trump pressed them into voting yes on the bill.  Norman said he would be a 'nay' on the Senate-passed version of the bill, only to flip and support it after his meeting with Trump - who promised to use his office to stringently enforce energy tax credit phase-outs. "President Trump is going to use his powers to — like on the subsidies, to make sure that it’s a lot of these subsidies won’t remain in effect, you know, from here on out," said Norman.  Trump, meanwhile, says he plans to sign his signature tax and spending bill tomorrow morning at a White House ceremony, Punchbowl's Sherman posted on X. NEW -- I am now told that this signing ceremony will be at 5 p.m. tomorrow. Seems like it's a moving target — Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) In response to the GOP's advancing the bill, Trump said on Truth Social that it was a "great night."  "What a great night it was. One of the most consequential Bills ever," he wrote, adding "The USA is the ‘HOTTEST’ Country in the World, by far!!!" The core of the BBB permanently extends and expands the 2017 Trump tax cuts, introducing new deductions for tip income and overtime pay, while providing significant tax relief for Social Security recipients. It reinstates full and immediate expensing for business equipment and R&D, delivers new construction write-offs for manufacturers, and boosts incentives for domestic semiconductor production. High-income Americans and owners of pass-through entities also stand to benefit from expanded deductions, and the bill raises the state and local tax deduction cap for upper-middle-class households. But these tax changes are offset by historic spending cuts—chiefly, nearly $1 trillion in reductions to Medicaid and SNAP. The legislation also scales back Affordable Care Act subsidies and imposes stricter eligibility checks, drawing ire from hospitals and health advocates. Meanwhile, clean energy and EV sectors face deep setbacks as tax credits are repealed and renewable subsidies curtailed.  Thu, 07/03/2025 - 10:15
Services Surveys Signal 'Expansion' In June, Inflation Fears Remain High Services Surveys Signal 'Expansion' In June, Inflation Fears Remain High On the heels of , US Services data expectations were more mixed for June (PMI exp down, ISM exp up) amid a sudden plunge in 'hard' data. S&P Global US Services PMI fell from 53.7 to 52.9 in June (below the 53.1 expectations) - still above 50 (expansion). ISM Services rose from 49.9 to 50.8 in June (above the 50.6 expectations) - back above 50 (expansion) Baffle 'em with bullshit... image Source: Bloomberg Under the hood, the picture was more mixed with new orders rising back into expansion territory but employment falling further and prices paid dipping modestly (from two year highs)... image Source: Bloomberg Chris Williamson, https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/36f8e3b0cf7c4d33b4b9aa3b495b40b2 : "The US service sector reported a welcome combination of sustained growth and increased hiring in June, but also reported elevated price pressures, all of which could add to pressure on policymakers to remain cautious with regard to any further loosening of monetary policy. image "Viewed alongside an improvement in manufacturing growth reported in June, the services PMI indicates that the economy grew at a reasonable annualized rate approaching 1.5% in the second quarter, with momentum having improved since the lull seen in April. Rising demand for services has meanwhile encouraged firms to take on additional staff at a rate not seen since January. However, Williamson notes that "we are seeing some worrying signs of weakness below the headline numbers." "...notably in respect to exports and falling activity among consumer-facing service providers, which has curbed the overall pace of economic expansion. Concerns over government policies have meanwhile created uncertainty and dampened spending on services more broadly, while also ensuring confidence in the outlook remains subdued compared to the optimism seen at the start of the year. The continued expansion of business activity in the coming months along the lines seen in June is therefore by no means assured. "Price pressures have remained elevated in June. Although weak demand and intense competition were reported to have helped moderate the overall rate of increase compared to May, the overall rate of prices charged inflation for services remains the second-highest for over two years, thanks to widelyreported tariff-related cost increases, and will likely contribute to higher consumer price inflation in the near-term." So take your pick... did the Services sector improve in June (ISM) or deteriorate (PMI)? Thu, 07/03/2025 - 10:06
NATO Chief 'Totally Understands' US Halting Weapons For Ukraine As Russia Celebrates NATO Chief 'Totally Understands' US Halting Weapons For Ukraine As Russia Celebrates NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte spoke to Fox News in a Wednesday interview, reacting to the 'shock' White House announcement halting many arms and ammo transfers to Ukraine. Rutte said that he understands the United States' need to safeguard its own defense stockpiles, however, still made an appeal for ongoing urgent support from Washington. "I totally understand that the US always has to make sure its interests are covered," Rutte https://kyivindependent.com/nato-chief-urges-continued-us-support-for-ukraine-as-pentagon-halts-arms-shipments/ . "When it comes to Ukraine, in the short term, Ukraine cannot do without all the support it can get." image The White House had earlier described that in the context of the Russia-Ukraine war the "decision was made to put America's interests first following" a Defense Department "review of our nation's military support and assistance to other countries across the globe." Many reports over the last couple years have sounded the alarm that US military stockpiles are falling dangerously low, and that they will continue to be depleted based on past Ukraine policy and pledged future transfers. The items being halted were key weapons systems previously promised to Ukraine's military, ranging from Hellfire missiles to Patriot missiles to precision-guided artillery shells and munitions for F-16 fighter jets. Newsweek says that Russia is 'celebrating' the : Peskov referred to "empty warehouses" housing the American arms and said that the fewer weapons given to Ukraine "the closer the end of the special military operation," referring to the official Kremlin term for its full-scale invasion. Peskov expressed the same sentiment to reporters on Thursday, according to state news agency Tass. The   said the U.S. suspension will reinforce Putin's plan, expressed in June 2024 and repeated since then, to win a war of attrition with slow advances as he waits for Western support for Ukraine to dry up. Presidents Trump and Zelensky are expected to discuss the stoppage of these deliveries to Kiev in a call on Friday. Financial Times says they are expected to discuss deal-making to keep the arms flowing, though obviously Zelensky has had very rocky relations with the US : Ukrainians were alarmed by the pause in deliveries of weapons including some now being held in Poland while Russia intensifies a summer offensive that involved its largest aerial attack of the war last weekend. Zelenskyy has said he wants to buy 10 Patriot systems for $15bn to defend against Russian drones and missiles. Trump suggested during the Nato summit that he would consider selling Patriot interceptors to Kyiv, but said supplies were low. Defence department spokesman Sean Parnell said on Wednesday the halt in deliveries came after a “capability review” conducted “to ensure US military aid aligns with our defense priorities”. The question of an acceptable amount of hardware in the Pentagon's own stockpiles isn't expected to be of much concern to Ukraine and its closest European supporters. Pro-Ukraine hawks in Congress are also angry and looking for answers... Today, I called on the President to address my serious concern regarding reports the United States is withholding critical defense material pledged to Ukraine. This comes as Russia launches the largest aerial assault since the war began, firing over 500 weapons at civilian… — Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick 🇺🇸 (@RepBrianFitz) They are already lashing out, angry that the arms pipeline is dwindling further. Ukrainian foreign minister Andriy Sybiha has informed the US Embassy in Kiev that "any delay or hesitation in supporting Ukraine’s defense capabilities only encourages the aggressor to continue the war and acts of terror." Thu, 07/03/2025 - 10:00
"June Looks Strong": Boeing Monthly Aircraft Delivery Tracker Signals Recovery "June Looks Strong": Boeing Monthly Aircraft Delivery Tracker Signals Recovery Goldman analysts led by Noah Poponak maintain a "Buy" rating on Boeing, citing new Planespotters data that suggests the embattled planemaker may finally be emerging from its manufacturing slump. A series of mid-air incidents and quality control issues had previously forced 737 Max production caps, but June's stronger delivery figures point to a potential turnaround. image Poponak told clients that Planespotters' aircraft delivery tracker for Boeing planes is trending around 58 deliveries for June (57 excluding 1 KC-46A delivery), including 42 737 MAX and 9 787. "Of the 42 MAX deliveries, we estimate 37 were new production, with 5 from inventory. 58 deliveries is a step function improvement over the mid-40 delivery rate BA has been holding for the last 5 months," the analyst said.  image Poponak noted the uptick in deliveries, calling June "strong" and "another month of progress," as well as the highest in quite some time, adding that it "indicates to us that product quality improvements are holding, enabling higher production rates, and therefore allowing for more deliveries." "We think BA will stabilize MAX production at ~38/month over the next several months, request a move to 42/month late in 2025, and raise production in increments of 5/month thereafter," he said.  image Here's a breakdown of Boeing's June deliveries by aircraft variant. image Poponak is Buy rated on the stock with a 12-month price target of $226. He said this is derived from targeting a 3.8% free cash flow yield on 2026E free cash.  image Boeing shares are consolidating, a sign that direction could, at some point, be coming.  image Related: Spoiler alert: Boeing is not on the 'must-own' defense stocks...  Thu, 07/03/2025 - 09:20
My Wray Or The Highway: New Report Raises Troubling Questions Over The FBI Spiking Report Contradicting Director My Wray Or The Highway: New Report Raises Troubling Questions Over The FBI Spiking Report Contradicting Director Newly declassified FBI documents obtained by Fox raise troubling questions over the FBI allegedly spiking findings that contradicted the testimony of  then-FBI Director Christopher Wray. The FBI had uncovered a Chinese conspiracy to influence the election in favor of then-President Joe Biden, including the creation of false driver’s licenses. Wray denied that such efforts were occurring and the FBI   proceeded to effectively bury the report. image Agents had found that the Chinese manufactured fake driver’s licenses and shipped them to the U.S. in a scheme to help Biden. That not only contradicted the narrative of the election, but Wray’s testimony. Wray testified before Congress that the FBI had not seen any coordinated voter fraud ahead of the 2020 election: “We have not seen historically any kind of coordinated national voter fraud effort in a major election, whether it is by mail or otherwise.” However, that does not appear to be true. The FBI “recalled” the reporting after his testimony “in order to re-interview the source.” It also directed “recipients” of the original report to “destroy all copies of the original report and remove the original report from all computer holdings.” In a letter to Sen. Chuck Grassley (R, Iowa), Assistant FBI Director Marshall Yates stated that “Although the source was reengaged and provided additional context to support the initial IIR, FBI Headquarters maintained its position not to republish the report.” Of course, there is little interest in most of the media on this foreign interference story despite the allegations of a cover up before the election. Critics are alleging a cover up with FBI agents effectively told that it is my Wray or the highway when it came to Chinese interference with the election. Thu, 07/03/2025 - 09:00
Blowout June Payrolls: 147K Jobs Added, Smashing Expectations; Unemployment Rate Drops To 4.1% Blowout June Payrolls: 147K Jobs Added, Smashing Expectations; Unemployment Rate Drops To 4.1% After yesterday's shockingly bad ADP print of negative 33K, the market was braced for the worse, with the whisper number for today's payrolls sliding to 96K, the first sub 100K print and far below the consensus of 106K, and many even contemplating how to trade a stagflationary recession print. In the end, it turned out to be just another headfake by ADP which now has the same credibility as UMich, because moments ago the BLS published a blowout job report: in June, the US added 147K payrolls, blowing away the median estimate of 106K, and higher than the upward revised May print of 144K. image Remarkable, and in a dramatic change from the Biden tradition, previous months were revised higher: April was revised up by 11,000, from +147,000 to +158,000, and the change for May was revised up by 5,000, from +139,000 to +144,000. image It wasn't just the headline print that surprised to the upside: perhaps an even bigger surprise was the unemployment rate which dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%, denying expectations of an increase to 4.3%, and far below the Fed's recently upward revised estimate of a 4.5%. image The drop in the unemp rate was the result of a 93K increase in employed workers, offset by a decline in the civilian labor force to 173,380K from 170,510K and a drop in the number of unemployed workers from 7,237K to 7,1025K. Developing Thu, 07/03/2025 - 08:48