Zelensky Proposes 3-Way Meeting With Trump, Putin As US Rejects More Anti-Moscow Sanctions Zelensky Proposes 3-Way Meeting With Trump, Putin As US Rejects More Anti-Moscow Sanctions Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has called for a three-way summit with Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin at a moment aerial strikes between the warring sides have been escalating for several consecutive days. "If Putin is not comfortable with a bilateral meeting, or if everyone wants it to be a trilateral meeting, I don't mind. I am ready for any format," Zelensky said Tuesday, in comments which were published Wednesday. Zelensky said he's ready for a "Trump-Putin-me" meeting, but simultaneously called for Washington to slap more sanctions on the Kremlin. "We are waiting for sanctions from the United States of America," the Ukrainian leader said. And Trump's response?... "If I think I’m close to getting a [peace] deal, I don’t wanna screw it up by doing that," he told reporters at the White House. Reporter: What’s stopping you from imposing sanctions on Russia?  Trump: If I think I’m close to a deal, I don’t want to screw it up. Let me tell you: I’m much tougher than those you’re talking about. You have to know when to use it. I think it would hurt the deal. ‘I don’t want to screw it up’ – Trump explains why he won’t impose sanctions – What’s stopping you from imposing sanctions on Russia? – If I think I’m close to a deal, I don’t want to screw it up. Let me tell you: I’m much tougher than those you’re talking about. You have to… — Zlatti71 (@Zlatti_71) Mainstream media and pundits have also of late been pressuring the White House to escalate the economic war against Russia, despite some seventeen waves of sanctions since the conflict began not doing much if anything to change the actual course of the war. Zelensky had also said in his comments, "Trump confirmed that if Russia does not stop, sanctions will be imposed. We discussed two main aspects with him – energy and the banking system. Will the U.S. be able to impose sanctions on these two sectors? I would very much like that." The Ukrainian leader is at the same time alleging that Russia is surging more troops to https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/war-ukraine-russia/2025/05/28/id/1212593/ : On the battlefield, Zelenskyy said Russia was "amassing" more than 50,000 troops on the front line around the northeastern Sumy border region, where Moscow's army has captured a number of settlements as it seeks to establish what Putin has called a "buffer zone" inside Ukrainian territory. NATO appears to be 'answering' with a build-up of its own, per Reuters https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/nato-ask-berlin-seven-more-brigades-under-new-targets-sources-say-2025-05-28/ : NATO will ask Germany to provide seven more brigades, or some 40,000 troops, for the alliance's defencs, three sources told Reuters, under new targets for weapons and troop numbers that its members' defence ministers are set to agree on next week. The alliance is dramatically increasing its military capability targets as it views Russia as a much greater threat since its 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine. So Trump's instincts to avoid sanctions, seeking to prevent further uncontrollable escalation at this sensitive point, are correct - at least from the perspective of avoiding action which would unnecessarily sabotage the chance for peace. image After all, there's little the United States can do and each option is a 'bad' option, given Russia is in control on the ground in the Donbass. However, the US can lean on Kiev to make territorial concessions, given this is likely the only realistic option for permanent peace. Meanwhile, Kremlin officials have been saying this week that they are concerned that the intelligence being provided to Trump is highly skewed in a hawkish direction. Lavrov has asserted that info given to the US Commander-in-Chief is likely "filtered" - and that he doesn't have the full picture on the intensity of ongoing Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory. VERY interesting. Lavrov alleges that Trump is not being fully briefed on everything regarding the situation in Ukraine, and that bad actors are giving him information “through a filter” in order to coerce the Trump admin into supporting Ukraine. — Clandestine (@WarClandestine) As an example of these kinds of recent attacks, the below shows a major strike on a site  Russia's "Silicon Valley".... Moments ago, Ukrainian attack drones hit a major Russian cruise missile manufacturer north of Moscow, the Dubna Machine-Building Plant. At least one drone slammed into the complex that produces long-range cruise missiles used to strike Ukraine. — OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) "A major Ukrainian drone assault targeted the city of Zelenograd, known as Russia’s 'Silicon Valley,' as well as a machine-building plant north of Moscow, Russian media and Ukrainian officials reported Wednesday," a regional source reported. Wed, 05/28/2025 - 17:20
Trump's Monetary Reset: Is A Gold-Backed Dollar On The Horizon? Trump's Monetary Reset: Is A Gold-Backed Dollar On The Horizon? “More and more people are asking if a gold standard will end the financial crisis in which we find ourselves. The question is not so much if it will help or if we will resort to gold, but when. All great inflations end with the acceptance of real money—gold—and the rejection of political money—paper.”  – Ron Paul Two powerful catalysts are driving the coming monetary reset. First, the federal debt crisis has reached a breaking point, with skyrocketing interest payments now surpassing defense spending and on track to become the largest single budget item. This trajectory is unsustainable, signaling that a major financial reckoning is imminent. Second, the Trump administration views the US dollar as severely overvalued, believing it is crippling the economy and that urgent intervention is necessary. So, what’s the tried-and-true solution to both of these problems? image The answer is clear: a significant dollar devaluation. Devaluing the dollar is a boon to debtors, especially the US government, allowing it to borrow in dollars and repay in dimes. Short of an outright default—which Washington is unlikely to do—a weaker dollar is the only practical way to address the spiraling debt crisis. At the same time, devaluation directly addresses the Trump administration’s concern that the US dollar is dangerously overvalued, a problem they believe is crippling American industry and exports. That’s why a significant dollar devaluation isn’t just possible—I believe it’s a near certainty. The only question is how the Trump administration will do it. And if history is any guide, gold will once again be at the center of it all. Before going further, it’s essential to understand Trump’s stance on gold. It’s no secret that Trump has a deep appreciation for gold—a fact reflected in his buildings, branding, and personal style. From the towering gold letters on his properties to the lavish gold-themed decor of Trump Tower, his affinity for the yellow metal is unmistakable. Trump’s fascination with gold goes back to the 1970s when he made big profits as a gold investor. After the US government legalized private gold ownership in 1975, he aggressively bought in at around $185 per ounce. Reflecting on the investment, he later remarked: “We sold in the range of $780, $790. We did very well. It’s easier than the construction business.” Then, in September 2011, Trump accepted gold bars as a security deposit from a commercial tenant—one of the largest precious metals dealers in the US, APMEX. Instead of cash, the company paid its deposit with three one-kilo gold bars, each 99.99% pure and collectively weighing about 96.5 troy ounces. “The Trump Organization has always strived to be ‘the gold standard.’ We welcome APMEX as our tenant at 40 Wall, a prestigious and historical location. The legacy of gold as a precious commodity has transcended to become a viable currency and an accepted universal monetary standard. Central banks around the world are holding gold as a reserve asset. It is also a terrific, potentially lucrative diversifier in a portfolio, especially with such volatility in the stock market.” In a 2015 GQ interview, Trump openly expressed his admiration for a gold-backed monetary system, stating: “Bringing back the gold standard would be very hard to do, but boy, would it be wonderful. We’d have a standard on which to base our money.” He echoed this sentiment in another interview when asked about the possibility of returning to a gold standard: Interviewer: Can you envision a scenario in which this country ever goes back to the gold standard? Trump: I like the gold standard. There’s something very nice about the gold standard. There’s something very nice about having something solid, you know we used to have a very very solid country because it was based on a gold standard. We don’t have that anymore. There is something very nice about the concept of that. Trump’s Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, shares a similar enthusiasm for gold. In an interview last November, he made his stance clear: “I think we’re in a long-term bull market in Gold. We’re seeing reserve accumulation by central banks. I follow it closely. It’s my biggest position.” With both Trump and Bessent signaling a strong interest in gold, the idea of a gold-backed monetary shift is no longer just speculation—it may be part of the broader monetary realignment already in motion. So, how might gold be involved in a monetary reset today? A significant dollar devaluation is likely necessary to address the debt crisis and growing trade imbalances. In previous monetary resets, the solution was straightforward—the US government simply revalued gold at a higher price, effectively devaluing the dollar. However, today’s situation is different. Since 1973, the US government no longer directly sets the price of gold—it now floats freely on the open market. This raises an important question: How could the Trump administration use gold to weaken the dollar today? While no one can say for sure, one potential method would be for the US government to print dollars to buy gold on the open market—driving the price of gold higher and, in turn, devaluing the dollar against it. Remember, Trump has no interest in a minor tweak. He has made it clear that he wants a fundamental and permanent realignment to fix two existential problems: the debt crisis and the overvalued dollar hindering US industry. Given the scale of these challenges, it’s reasonable to expect a materially higher gold price as part of the solution. A gold price of $10,000, $20,000, or even higher is within the realm of possibility. Once this major dollar devaluation is achieved, a logical next step could be re-pegging the dollar to gold to ensure monetary stability and restore global confidence. This is where Fort Knox could become relevant again, as its gold reserves would potentially be used to back a new gold-linked dollar. Pegging the dollar to gold at a much higher price post-devaluation would also drastically reduce the burden of US debt. If gold were revalued to $20,000 per ounce, the 261 million ounces that Washington claims to own would suddenly be worth around $5.2 trillion, significantly strengthening the asset side of the US government’s balance sheet. The exact form this new gold standard might take is uncertain. The government could back 20%, 40%, or more of the money supply with gold or go to a fully gold-backed system, even allowing gold coins to circulate as legal tender, as they did before the 1933 confiscation. When we connect the dots, the big picture emerges. Trump has put Fort Knox’s gold holdings back in the national spotlight, calling for an audit for the first time in decades. Central bank gold purchases are accelerating at record-breaking levels. An unusually large influx of physical gold is flowing into the US, far beyond regular market activity—an intriguing development ahead of a potential Fort Knox audit. The US debt crisis has reached an inflection point and is spiraling out of control, making a monetary reset practically inevitable. The Trump administration sees the dollar as dangerously overvalued, blaming it for America’s worsening trade imbalances and economic stagnation. The conditions today are ripe for a monetary reset. The US has undergone numerous monetary resets in its history, and most have followed the same pattern: gold revaluation and dollar devaluation. If the Trump administration were to reset the monetary system, it would likely involve devaluing the dollar, revaluing gold to a much higher price, and re-pegging the US dollar to gold. A gold-backed dollar would require an audit of Fort Knox’s reserves. When you lay out all the facts, it becomes clear that a new monetary reset is likely on the horizon. All signs point to a historic shift: Trump is eyeing a dollar reset, gold is quietly moving into US vaults, and the debt crisis is reaching a breaking point. This isn’t speculation—it’s a playbook that’s been used before. What does it all mean for your money—and how can you turn this shift into opportunity? That’s why I’ve just released an urgent new report revealing the top three strategies you need to prepare—and profit—from what’s coming next.  Wed, 05/28/2025 - 17:00
NVDA Jumps 5% After Solid Q1 Results Despite $2.5BN In Lost Sales To China NVDA Jumps 5% After Solid Q1 Results Despite $2.5BN In Lost Sales To China Earlier today we wrote an extensive preview of what to expect from Nvidia's Q1 earnings ( ), but for those who missed it here is the summary: focus for the quarter will center around margin performance, but the higher-level debate still centers around trajectory of numbers into 2026 and the moving pieces around tariffs and geopolitics. Ahead of earnings, we noted that Nvidia’s stock has recovered most of the ground it lost earlier this year in the wake of concerns about the endurance of a spending surge on artificial intelligence computing. It is also about 50% higher from the April post "Liberation Day" lows. Which is why now that the downside case has been widely forgotten, the company will need to deliver a solid set of forecasts to avoid triggering them again. The bogeys: analysts expect sales of $43.3 billion in Q1, although the numbers are tricky. Because of new US rules, shipments of AI chips to China are going away, and only some analysts have factored that in. For the second quarter ending in July, Wall Street is estimating revenue of $45.1 billion on average. Nvidia will also give its own guidance for that period. A bunch of analysts in the run-up to this report have said they think the consensus estimate for fiscal 2Q revenue is way too high. According to an average of five analyst estimates from reports published in the past week, the sales target for the July period should be about $42.7 billion, with one estimate calling for a total of lower than $40 billion. That said, Goldman has cautioned that geopolitics have been a far greater drag on Nvidia’s growth than industry competition; CEO Jensen Huang has lobbied hard for the rollback of limits on his ability to ship to China. But even under a more sympathetic Trump administration, the restrictions have only tightened. As a result, in April, Nvidia disclosed that it will notch a $5.5 billion writedown due to new limits on its shipments of the already-pared-back H20 product to China With all that in mind, here is what NVDA reported moments ago for Q1: Non-GAAP EPS 81c, missing estimate 93c Adjusted EPS ex the $4.5 BN charge: $0.96. Revenue $44.06 billion, +69% y/y, beating estimate of $43.29 billion  Data center revenue $39.1 billion, +73% y/y, missing estimate $39.22 billion Automotive revenue $567 million, +72% y/y, missing estimate $579.4 million Networking revenue $4.96 billion, +56% y/y, beating estimate $3.45 billion Gaming revenue $3.76 billion, +45% y/y, beating estimate $2.85 billion Professional Visualization revenue $509 million, +19% y/y, beating estimate $505 million Adjusted gross margin 71.3% vs. 78.9% y/y, estimate 71% (margin including H20 charge was 61%) Adjusted operating income $23.28 billion, +29% y/y, below estimates of $27.15 billion Adjusted operating expenses $3.58 billion, +43% y/y, below the estimate $3.63 billion R&D expenses $3.99 billion, +47% y/y, below estimate $4.07 billion Free cash flow $26.14 billion, up 75% y/y As noted above, the numbers are not exactly apples to apples because the company incurred a substantial, $4.5 billion charge associated with H20 excess inventory and purchase obligations as the demand for H20 diminished: "Sales of H20 products were $4.6 billion for the first quarter of fiscal 2026 prior to the new export licensing requirements."  On the revenue side, NVIDIA was unable to ship an additional $2.5 billion of H20 revenue in the first quarter (the company said that sales of H20 products were $4.6 billion for the first quarter of fiscal 2026 prior to the new export licensing requirements). Excluding the $4.5 billion charge, the company said Q1 non-GAAP diluted earnings per share would have been $0.96. Here is a full breakdown of recent results: image While the Q1 results were ok, the company's guidance came slightly on the weak side of the buyside expectations we discussed in our premium preview. Revenue is expected to be $45.0 billion, plus or minus 2%; the mid-point is below the consensus of $45.5 billion The outlook for fiscal second quarter sales reflects a loss in H20 revenue of around $8 billion Also notes that while the official consensus estimate was $45.5 billion, recall that some analysts factored in the potential of lost revenue from H20 and some did not. As a result, the number is rather flexible. Sees adjusted gross margin 71.5% to 72.5%, in line with estimates of 71.7% Sees adjusted operating expenses $4.0 billion, above estimates of $3.86 billion Commenting on the results, CEO Jensen Huang said that “Global demand for NVIDIA’s AI infrastructure is incredibly strong. AI inference token generation has surged tenfold in just one year, and as AI agents become mainstream, the demand for AI computing will accelerate.” Just like AAPL in its early days, Nvidia is now building a big cash pile: "Cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities were $53.7 billion, up from $31.4 billion a year ago and $43.2 billion a quarter ago." With the company's recent attempt to buy Arm stopped by regulators, how long before investors start demanding greater payouts, either in the form of bigger dividends, stock buybacks, or maybe even a one-time dividend. To be sure, there was the usual cautionary language too. Here are some of the warnings from the company's 10Q: May Be Unable to Create A Competitive Product for China Expect to Begin Shipping Blackwell Ultra 2Q Fiscal ‘26 Would Have to Foreclose From Competing in China Market China Market Foreclosure Would Materially Hit Business Export Controls Applicable to China Are Complex Still Evaluating Limited Options to Comply W/ Usg Rules Still Looking at How to Supply Usg Compliant Compute Separately, the 10Q also has this disclosure about China and China’s own questions for Nvidia: Regulators in China have inquired about our sales and efforts to supply the China market and our fulfillment of the commitments we entered at the close of our Mellanox acquisition. For example, regulators in China are investigating whether complying with applicable U.S. export controls discriminates unfairly against customers in the China market. If regulators conclude that we have failed to fulfill such commitments or we have violated any applicable law in China, we could be subject to financial penalties, restrictions on our ability to conduct our business, restrictions or other orders regarding our networking business, products, and services, or otherwise impact our operations in China, any of which could have a material and adverse impact on our business, operating results and financial condition. Usual boilerplate stuff. So as they look at the market reaction, investors are asking a question: how did Nvidia make up for the lost sales of H20 to China?  Bloomberg answers that the deals announced during President Trump’s tour of the Middle East (which Jensen Huang attended) seem to be too recent to make their way into that 2Q outlook, and adds that "hopefully someone will ask on the call with analysts." Overall, the results were solid despite the expected miss in China sales due to the H20 sales loss. And, as Bloomberg put it, how many companies could front-load their earnings release with details of what they’re missing out on and still get a positive reaction from investors? The stock is holding a solid 5% gain after hours. image Erasing all of the loses since the last earnings... image Still, at today’s close, Nvidia shares were about 10% below the record high hit in early January.  The downward pressure on shares had also lowered its valuation. The stock trades at about 29 times forward earnings, a big step down from where shares were valued at the start of the year, around 35 times forward earnings. It appears that investors see room for the stock to run Wed, 05/28/2025 - 16:47
The Middle Class Is Collapsing: Nearly 1 In 4 Americans Is Now "Functionally Unemployed" The Middle Class Is Collapsing: Nearly 1 In 4 Americans Is Now "Functionally Unemployed" Do you ever feel like you are “functionally unemployed”?  If so, you are definitely not alone.  There are lots of people out there that cannot pay the bills each month even though they have jobs.  In fact, there are lots of people out there that literally cannot afford to put a roof over their heads even though they are employed.  Yes, there are many hard working Americans that are now living in their vehicles or in “tent communities” because that is all they can afford.  In recent years, the cost of living has been rising much faster than paychecks have, and so now a substantial percentage of the population is living  .  The middle class has been collapsing all around us, and we are witnessing an extraordinary amount of economic suffering all over the country right now. image For years, the federal government has been telling us that the unemployment rate in the U.S. is very low. Everyone knows that is a bunch of hogwash. According to a report that was recently released by the Ludwig Institute for Shared Economic Prosperity, the true rate of unemployment in the U.S. was   last month… But another indicator suggests those pieces of government data may be painting an overly rosy picture of the economy, with a recent report from the Ludwig Institute for Shared Economic Prosperity (LISEP) finding the “true rate” of unemployment stood at 24.3% in April, up slightly from 24% in March, while the official Bureau of Labor Statistics rate remained unchanged at 4.2% over the same period. LISEP’s measure encompasses not only unemployed workers, but also people who are looking for work but can’t find full-time employment, as well as those stuck in poverty-wage jobs. By tracking functionally unemployed workers, the measure seeks to capture labor market nuances that other economic indicators miss, such as Americans who are left behind during periods of economic expansion. Today, there are millions upon millions of Americans that are “functionally unemployed”. According  , you can literally “be homeless and in a tent community and have worked one hour” and be counted as “employed” by the federal government… “The unemployment data, as it’s put out, has some flaws,” LISEP chairman Gene Ludwig told CBS MoneyWatch. “For example, it counts you as employed if you’ve worked as little as one hour over the prior two weeks. So you can be homeless and in a tent community and have worked one hour and be counted, irrespective of how poorly-paid that hour may be.” I know that a lot of you can really identify with what I am talking about in this article, because you are experiencing deep economic pain on a daily basis. Earlier this month, I heard from a reader that is essentially “functionally unemployed” at this point. I asked him if I could share an excerpt from his email to me with all of you, and he gave me permission.  If you are suffering too, hopefully his story will help you to realize that you aren’t alone… Last year my income was $19,000. If I didn’t have a mortgage/rent free house to live in, I would be homeless!!! I try to stock up on food when ever my local Grocery Store puts items on sale. I shop at Thrift Stores and only on the half price days. In 8 years my Real Estate Taxes have gone from $1,400 to $2,000. In 8 years my Real Estate Insurance has gone from $1,500 to $2,200. I haven’t had a Vacation in DECADES!!! I seldom eat out. I drive a 40 year old Pickup with 220,000 miles on it. I try to combine errands and shopping in one trip to conserve on gasoline and not put as many miles on my old Pickup. During the hot summer months I take a shower out of the end of a garden hose to cut my water bill. I wear my clothes day after day until they get so dirty I can’t stand it or they start to stink. I can only dream about living a normal American middle class lifestyle. I hear of people making $100,000 a year and how they cannot pay their bills. MY GOODNESS MAN, I WOULD CONSIDER MYSELF RICH IF I COULD MAKE $100K A YEAR!!!!!! Countless others are living a similar lifestyle. As I discussed   of Americans are the most financially stressed that they have ever been in their entire lives. And the cost of living just continues to soar. In fact, the average price of a pound of ground beef just surged to  … The average cost of one pound of ground beef reached a record-high of $5.80 in April, according to numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That is up nearly 50% from five years ago. Ouch. Our cost of living crisis never seems to end. Inflation is one of the primary reasons why consumer sentiment in the U.S. just hit  … The index of consumer sentiment dropped to 50.8, down from 52.2 in April, in the preliminary reading for May. That is the second-lowest reading on record, behind June 2022. The outlook for price changes also moved in the wrong direction. Year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 7.3% from 6.5% last month, while long-term inflation expectations ticked up to 4.6% from 4.4%. And the outlook for the months ahead is not promising at all. Last month, the Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators fell  … The short-term outlook for the U.S. economy worsened significantly in April, according to the Conference Board’s latest Leading Economic Index (LEI). On Monday, the D.C.-based research said that the index—a closely monitored composite of several economic indicators—had fallen by 1.0 percent to 99.4 in April, registering the fifth consecutive monthly decline and the steepest drop since March 2023. Over the six months ending in April 2025, the LEI fell by two percent, matching the pace of decline posted over the previous six months. Let me try to end this article on a positive note. If you are “functionally unemployed”, I know that it is tough right now. In this difficult economic environment, we are all just going to have to get lean and mean. Do your best to try to earn as much money as you can, and once you have got it hold on to it very tightly. The middle class has been getting eviscerated for years, but we must never give up. It won’t be easy, but if you are willing to fight you can survive in this economy. Just keep putting one foot in front of the other every day, and just keep looking for more opportunities to make things better for you and your family. *  *  * Michael’s new book entitled https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0F4DN45KX . Wed, 05/28/2025 - 16:20
UBS Survey Finds Global Tesla Enthusiasm Losing Juice, But... UBS Survey Finds Global Tesla Enthusiasm Losing Juice, But... Tesla shares have rebounded sharply, rising around 60% since their March lows, driven by renewed investor enthusiasm surrounding the company's upcoming robotaxi launch and progress on its humanoid robots. The March low coincided with remarks by , who cheerleaded the demise of Tesla when shares cratered.  Despite the surge in bullish investor sentiment since mid-April, fueled by anticipation of Tesla's long-awaited robotaxi launch in Austin, Texas, in the coming days and visible progress on its Optimus humanoid robot, UBS maintains a cautious stance on the stock. image UBS analysts Joseph Spak and others published a note on Tuesday, focusing on its proprietary UBS EV Consumer Survey, in which the latest survey found declining global interest in Tesla's EVs across all major regions (U.S., China, Europe), as well as growing pressure across its core automotive business, where fundamentals continue to deteriorate.  Spak outlined results from each key market: In the U.S., we see Tesla saturation (~48% US BEV share), a limited vehicle lineup and affordability are concerns. In China, we see intense competition and Tesla is no longer seen as the technology leader. In Europe, we believe there may have been brand damage from Musk's political involvement "Overall, we remain cautious on Tesla stock," Spak said in the note. UBS maintains a Sell rating with a 12-month price target of $190, implying significant downside from current levels. Shares were trading around $366 in premarket on Wednesday. image Spak sees through the robotaxis and humanoid robots hype, telling clients:  "We understand that there is enthusiasm over robotaxis and humanoid robots, but the automotive business faces mounting challenges and a source of earnings/cash flow may be at risk with removal of California waiver. Musk has indicated the value of Tesla is in AV and humanoid robots. This may be true. But given the deteriorating outlook for the auto business , that means the implied valuation assigned to these ventures is already quite robust."  According to the survey of consumers around the world, only 36% of respondents globally would consider purchasing a Tesla—down from 39% a year ago. The share of consumers selecting Tesla as their top BEV (battery electric vehicle) choice fell even more sharply, from 22% to 18%. Here are the highlights of the survey: Globally, 36% of consumers would consider a Tesla, down from 39% last year. As a consumer's top BEV choice, Tesla is down to 18%, from 22% last year. The top choice decline was fairly prominent across the 3 major regions for Tesla: In the U.S. top choice went to 29% vs. 38% last year (and note vs. 2024 BEV share of 48%). In China, Tesla as a top choice was down to 14% from 18% last year and now behind both BYD and Xiaomi. More broadly, China consumers prefer to buy domestic OEM brands vs TSLA, although they do favor TSLA over other foreign OEM brands. In Europe, top choice went to 15% from 20% last year. In Europe, we also saw brand consideration for Audi and BMW surpass TSLA. The survey also asked about autonomous/ADAS. Importance of ADAS as a feature held steady. When it comes to paying for autonomous features, only 1~12% would pay more than $7.6k upfront for autonomous features. TSLA's FSD currently costs $8k to buy outright. Meanwhile, only ~18% would pay >$100/ month for autonomous features; FSD subscription is currently $99/month. It's hard to ignore the shifting sentiment in the global EV survey data, which shows consumer interest steadily moving away from Tesla and toward Chinese rival BYD. image Tesla's favorability in the U.S. has remained stagnant at around 50% for several years.  image In China, respondents have been increasingly favoring domestic brands over Tesla.  image In Europe, respondents were also beginning to shift to domestic brands.  image The survey found that youngsters around the world are increasingly favoring Tesla. This bodes well for future demand.  image Interest in owning a vehicle that can drive autonomously differs per country.  image Contrary to UBS analyst Joseph Spak's warning of a "deteriorating outlook" for Tesla's automotive business, one user on X pointed to fresh sales data from China showing the Model Y ranked as the best-selling mid-size SUV for the week beginning May 19. Tesla’s Model Y is the best selling car in the list of Top 10 weekly sales of mid-size SUVs for the week May.19-May.25 in China🔥 With 7400 units delivered, we need a telescope to see the runner up, Tiguan L by Volkswagen, with 2900 units 🔭 — TCMesla (@TCMesla) Tip Ranks places a 47% success rate on Spak's calls.  image . . . Wed, 05/28/2025 - 14:40
Crypto Czar Sacks Says US Could Possibly "Acquire More Bitcoin" Crypto Czar Sacks Says US Could Possibly "Acquire More Bitcoin" White House AI and crypto czar David Sacks says the US could buy more Bitcoin if the government can fund the purchase in a “budget-neutral” way without a tax or adding to the growing national debt. image Sacks   that while he “can’t promise anything,” a pathway does exist for the government to buy more Bitcoin. However, it would require convincing Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick or Treasury Secretary Scott Besson to OK the buy and fund it “without a new tax or adding to the debt,” Sacks said, adding that “maybe by finding the money from some other program that’s not using it — then we could potentially acquire more Bitcoin.” David Sacks said the US could buy more Bitcoin, but he can’t make any promises. Source:  “The question is, can we get either the Treasury Department or the Commerce Department to get excited about that because if they do and they can figure out how to fund it, they actually do have presidential authorization,” Sacks said. US can buy Bitcoin if it doesn’t sting budget  The March 6 executive order   as part of criminal or civil asset forfeiture. Sacks noted part of the executive order “allows the government to purchase more”  if it’s “done in a budget-neutral” way. “Specifically, if either the Commerce Department or the Treasury Department can figure out how to fund it without adding to the debt, then they are allowed to create those programs,” he said. The US holds approximately 198,012 Bitcoin, https://www.coingecko.com/research/publications/government-bitcoin-holdings  over $21 billion at current prices. Most of its holdings came from two seizures connected to the online marketplace Silk Road, one in November 2020 that netted , and another in March 2022 that saw authorities seize 51,351 Bitcoin. The US also seized 94,636 Bitcoin   and corresponding private keys. In January, the US Department of Justice  Wed, 05/28/2025 - 14:20
FOMC Minutes Show Fearful Fed Taking "Cautious Approach" Before Plunge In Uncertainty FOMC Minutes Show Fearful Fed Taking "Cautious Approach" Before Plunge In Uncertainty Since the last FOMC meeting, on May 7th, the market has been mixed with stocks and crude oil rallying strongly while gold and bonds have been sold (the dollar is basically unchanged)... image Source: Bloomberg ...but bitcoin has soared over 15% since the last FOMC meeting... image Source: Bloomberg Hard data continues to be steady and growing while 'soft' survey data has surged in the three weeks since the last Fed meeting... image Source: Bloomberg Which has pushed rate-cut expectations lower overall (with cuts shifting from 2025 to 2026)... image Source: Bloomberg As a reminder, in spite of the exact same macro background of a dramatic tightening in financial conditions (orange oval) and weakness morphing into strength for US Macro data (red and green arrow), Powell and his pals decided a 50bps rate-cut (red oval) was not necessary this time... we wonder why (black line)? image Source: Bloomberg Finally, before we see what they said (or want us to know), we noted that "uncertainty" was a key word used by Powell (during the statement and the press conference). Overall 'Uncertainty' had fallen into the meeting and since then it has plunged to its lowest since February (before Liberation Day)... image Source: Bloomberg these minutes of the meeting are an account of information that was available to the Fed at the time of the meeting on 7th May 2025, therefore it will not incorporate the recent de-escalation on trade with China. So, What Did They Want Us To Know? Here are the key headlines from the Minutes: Participants agreed that uncertainty about the economic outlook had increased further, making it appropriate to take a cautious approach until the net economic effects of the array of changes to government policies become clearer. Uncertainty is key: Significant uncertainties also surrounded changes in fiscal, regulatory, and immigration policies and their economic effects. Taken together, participants saw the uncertainty about their economic outlooks as unusually elevated. On inflation, they are split:  Some participants assessed that tariffs on intermediate goods could contribute to a more persistent increase in inflation. A few participants noted that supply chain disruptions caused by tariffs also could have persistent effects on inflation, reminiscent of such effects during the pandemic. Several participants highlighted factors that might help mitigate the magnitude and persistence of potential increases in inflation, such as reductions of tariff increases from ongoing trade negotiations, less tolerance for price increases by households, a weakening of the economy, reduced housing inflation pressures from lower immigration, or a desire by some firms to increase market share rather than raise prices on items not affected by tariffs. Growth fears:  *FOMC Minutes: Staff Lowered Real GDP Growth Forecast for 2025 and 2026 from March Meeting *FOMC Minutes: Officials Saw Risk of Labor Market Weakening in Coming Months ...and finally, this fearmongering:  *FOMC Minutes: Loss of Safe-Haven Status Could Have Long-Lasting Implications for US, Some Officials Say Developing... Read the full Minutes release below:  Wed, 05/28/2025 - 14:05
FOMC Minutes Preview: The "Wait-And-See" Meeting FOMC Minutes Preview: The "Wait-And-See" Meeting Three weeks after the May 7 FOMC left rates unchanged at 4.25-4.50% for a third consecutive session (as expected) with a unanimous vote, at 2pm ET today we will get the Minutes from said meeting. As a reminder, the statement noted that uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased further and added that '‘risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen”.  The Fed repeated its March language that economic activity continues to expand at a solid pace, though net export swings have affected the data. It maintained its view that inflation remains somewhat elevated and labor market conditions are solid, with the unemployment rate stabilizing at a low level.  The key changes centered on increased uncertainty and the risks on both sides of the dual mandate.  In his press conference, Chair Powell reiterated that the Fed is well-positioned to respond as needed and remains in a "wait-and-see” stance.  On tariffs, he noted they have been larger than anticipated but have yet to show major effects in the data, though concerns remain.  Powell said the Fed will adjust policy as the economy evolves, balancing dual mandate goals by assessing how far and how fast each side may drift from target. He declined to specify which side is at greater risk and stressed the Fed is in no rush but can act quickly if necessary.  According to Bloomberg economists, “Jerome Powell signaled a high bar for rate cuts this year. We think these changes likely reflect significant adjustments to the staff forecast following the Trump administration’s changes to tariff policies in the intermeeting period." Note, the minutes of the meeting are an account of information that was available to the Fed at the time of the meeting on 7th May 2025, therefore it will not incorporate the recent de-escalation on trade with China. Wed, 05/28/2025 - 13:50
Harvard Fires Star Professor Who Fabricated Data For 'Dishonesty' Studies Harvard Fires Star Professor Who Fabricated Data For 'Dishonesty' Studies A celebrated Harvard professor who researched why people are dishonest was fired and stripped of tenure after a probe found she fabricated data on multiple studies. image Francesca Gino, a star behavioral scientist at Harvard Business School whose work focused on why people cheat, was found to have manipulated observations in four studies so that their findings supported her hypotheses - according to a 1,300-page report detailing the university's months-long investigation. Of note, Harvard hasn't revoked a professor's tenure since the 1940s - when the American Association of University Professors formalized termination rules, the reports. "The committee concludes that Professor Gino has engaged in multiple instances of research misconduct, across all four studies at issue in these allegations," according to the report. Gino, a star academic who had authored over 140 academic papers and snagged numerous awards, came under fire last year after a trio of behavioral scientists published a series of explosive posts on their blog , writing four academic papers published between 2012 and 2020 that the Harvard professor had co-authored “contained fraudulent data.” The university report detailed that Harvard began a preliminary investigation of Gino’s work in October 2021 after the Data Colada researchers brought their concerns about the papers’ sketchy data to the school. - The university launched a preliminary investigation into Gino's work after red flags emerged in a study she co-authored that claimed requiring people to sign an honesty pledge at the beginning of a form vs. the end significantly boosts honest responses. The study was retracted in 2021 due to "evidence" of data fabrication relying on three separate lab experiments to support its findings, the Post reports. The 'Data Colada' scientists then found three more studies in the same paper which appeared to rely on manipulated data, prompting a full probe into the allegations which was conducted in 2022 and 2023, in which people who worked with Gino on the papers were interviewed and Harvard Business School faculty analyzed her data, emails, and the papers' manuscripts. An outside forensics firm was also hired to assist in the analysis. When asked, Gino insisted that issued with her work may stem from errors by her or her research assistants - or (Joe Reid is that you?) someone with "malicious intentions" who may have tampered with her work.  Investigators saw right through that and provided their findings to HBS Dean Datar in March of 2023, after which Gino was placed on unpaid leave. Gino to defend herself - insisting "There is one thing I know for sure: I did not commit academic fraud. I did not manipulate data to produce a particular result," adding "I did not falsify data to bolster any result. I did not commit the offense I am accused of. Period." She then sued Harvard, Harvard Business School Dean Srikant Datar, and the Data Colada bloggers, claiming reputational damage and loss of income and career opportunities due to the investigation and placing her on administrative leave beginning in June 2023. "Harvard shared their case. And while my lawyers have discouraged me from speaking out, I just need to say that I did not — ever — engage in academic fraud," she wrote on her website in March 2024. "Once I have the opportunity to prove this in the court of law, with the support of experts I was denied through Harvard’s investigation process, you’ll see why their case is so weak and that these are bogus allegations." Except, a Boston judge dismissed her defamation claims against both Harvard and the Data Colada bloggers last September, ruling that her work can be scrutinized under the First Amendment due to her status as a public figure. Wed, 05/28/2025 - 13:40
After Backlash, White House Prepares Rescissions Bill To Codify Some DOGE Cuts After Backlash, White House Prepares Rescissions Bill To Codify Some DOGE Cuts Update (1336ET): The big question in recent weeks: Why are House Republicans hesitating to codify the waste and fraud identified by Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) into law? Musk's CBS News interview on Tuesday, where he called the "Big, Beautiful Bill" (BBB) a "disappointment," appears to have kicked off a broader information campaign aimed at pressuring the White House to push House Republicans toward formally codifying some DOGE-related spending cuts.  "I think a bill can be big or it could be beautiful. But I don't know if it could be both." Tech billionaire Elon Musk tells CBS Sunday Morning's he was "disappointed" to see the Trump-backed "big beautiful" spending bill, which passed in the House last week. Musk said… — CBS Sunday Morning 🌞 (@CBSSunday) By Wednesday afternoon, https://www.politico.com/news/2025/05/28/white-house-plans-at-last-to-send-some-doge-cuts-to-hill-00372274 reported, citing two anonymous Republican sources, that the White House plans to send a rescissions bill (appropriations bill) to Congress next week to formally propose the spending cuts. The package is expected to target funding for NPR, PBS, and certain foreign aid agencies previously reduced under President Trump. Here's more from the report:  The package set to land on Capitol Hill is expected to reflect only a fraction of the DOGE cuts, which have already fallen far short of Musk's multi-trillion-dollar aspirations. The two Republicans said it will target NPR and PBS, as well as foreign aid agencies that have already been gutted by President Donald Trump's administration. House Speaker Mike Johnson stated that the House is "eager and ready" to act on the DOGE findings, while Senate Majority Leader John Thune and others voiced frustration over the delay. . team have done INCREDIBLE work exposing waste, fraud, and abuse across the federal government - from the insanity of USAID’s spending to finding over 12 million people on Social Security who were over 120 years old. The House is eager and ready… — Speaker Mike Johnson (@SpeakerJohnson) A growing online campaign, led by supporters of Musk, including Sen. Mike Lee and Gov. Ron DeSantis, is pressuring the administration to codify more of the DOGE cuts. It’s not too late If you want Congress to codify the DOGE cuts, please tell your senators and representatives https://t.co/NkAMOyi5Dp — Mike Lee (@BasedMikeLee) Sen. Ron Johnson blasted House Republicans. NOW: Sen. Ron Johnson blasts House Republicans for failing to codify DOGE spending cuts into law. No one else is asking the question—but is sounding the alarm. “I would ask the question: where are the rescission packages so we can codify the DOGE savings?” “I’m… https://t.co/ToXeRaH1zC — The Vigilant Fox 🦊 (@VigilantFox) https://twitter.com/VigilantFox/status/1927715376462172546?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw However, the path forward remains uncertain due to the opposition of 26 Senate Republicans. image An online pressure campaign aimed at "codifying" the DOGE cuts is taking shape. The number of X posts mentioning "codifying" has jumped from around 1,000 five days ago to 25,000 on Tuesday.  image All DOGE cuts must be codified.    *   *   *  Elon Musk had ambitious plans when he took the helm of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), famously pledging to slash at least $1 trillion in government waste. Back in February, we noted that while Musk's mission in Washington, DC, was admirable, the ultimate cost savings would be decided by Congress. Fast forward to Tuesday, Musk appeared in a interview where he voiced his disappointment, citing frustration that despite DOGE's efforts to root out waste and fraud across federal agencies, President Trump's "Big, Beautiful Bill" (BBB) comes with an alarmingly high price tag. "I was disappointed to see the massive spending bill, frankly, which increases the budget deficit, not just decreases it, and undermines the work that the DOGE team is doing," Musk said. He added, "I think a bill can be big or it can be beautiful ... but I don't know if it can be both. My personal opinion." Last week, the Republican-controlled U.S. House of Representatives narrowly passed the BBB that fulfills much of Trump's 'America First' agenda, such as delivering new tax breaks on tips and car loans and boosting spending on the military and hemispheric defense. As we've previously explained, BBB will " " increase deficits by $3.8 trillion over ten years. In part because new borrowing is front-loaded and offsets are back-loaded, the bill would add massively to near-term deficits.  The prospect of a ballooning national debt—despite DOGE's https://doge.gov/savings $175 billion in federal waste and fraud reductions—has put Musk at odds with Trump's BBB and, more notably, with Congress. His frustration appears primarily directed at lawmakers, whom he sees as unwilling to implement the sweeping fiscal cuts needed to course-correct that nation to avert a debt crisis. We predicted this clash between Musk and Congress would unfold as far back as early February: "What Musk is doing in trying to streamline the govt is admirable but ultimately it will be Congress that decides the endgame. And there things are as status quo as always." Here's the bigger play at hand, and why there is only token pushback to DOGE. You cut enough spending - even if it's all grift and fraud - you eventually get a recession, guaranteed. That's all Congress is waiting for cause then they use the "emergency" to vote through a far… — zerohedge (@zerohedge) Musk is not alone. Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) has stated, "We're not rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic tonight. We're putting coal in the boiler and setting a course for the iceberg."  There is brewing dissent among other Republican senators who follow Musk... 🚨BREAKING: Just moments ago, Sen. Rick Scott said he's a NO on the One Big Beautiful Bill in its current form. He's demanding more spending cuts and setting America on the path to a balanced budget. “Oh absolutely I’d vote no. If they brought it to the floor right now there’s… — Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) Musk must be furious with Congress. 🚨 Elon Musk on DOGE: "The ability of Doge to operate is a function of whether the government, and this includes the Congress, is willing to take our advice. We are not the dictators of the government. We are the advisors, and so we can, we can advise, and the progress we've… — DogeDesigner (@cb_doge) Recall what he said last week, "The ability of Doge to operate is a function of whether the government, and this includes the Congress, is willing to take our advice."  Wed, 05/28/2025 - 13:36