Trump Moves To Rescind Appliance Efficiency Standards Trump Moves To Rescind Appliance Efficiency Standards President Donald Trump on May 9 moved to rescind appliance energy efficiency standards, calling them “unnecessary radical green agenda policies.” In a to the secretary of the Department of Energy, Trump said, “Water conservation requirements for faucets, showers, bathtubs, and toilets ... make bathroom appliances more expensive and less functional.”  “‘Efficiency’ standards render other American appliances like clothes washers and dishwashers less useful, more breakable, and more expensive to repair,” the White House said in a on Trump’s memo. “The Federal Government should not impose or enforce regulations that make taxpayers’ lives worse.” image the memo orders Energy Secretary Chris Wright to review and rescind rules limiting water use in showerheads, faucets, dishwashers, toilets, urinals, and washing machines, or return these rules to the bare minimum required by the Energy Policy Act of 1992. The executive order will have a major effect on the Energy Star program, which is managed by the EPA in coordination with the Department of Energy. Under the program, the EPA establishes energy efficiency guidelines, and appliances in a given category that meet these specifications can display the ENERGY STAR logo. Trump said that his directive would help increase the effectiveness of bathroom products, saying that standards imposed in the aftermath of the 1992 legislation had reduced consumer choice and made products less functional than they were before the legislation. “Ultra-efficient washing machines cost at least $100 more according to the Department of Energy,” the White House fact sheet states. “Updated dishwasher regulations caused those appliances to take two hours or more to complete a normal load of dishes—about twice the time of pre-standards models.” Earlier, on Jan. 20, Trump signed an executive order to “safeguard the American people’s freedom to choose from a variety of goods and appliances, including but not limited to lightbulbs, dishwashers, washing machines, gas stoves, water heaters, toilets, and shower heads.” The same day, Trump signed several measures passed by Congress under the Congressional Review Act repealing rules from President Joe Biden’s administration related to energy efficiency. The measures repealed regulations on gas water heaters and walk-in coolers and freezers, as well as energy conservation standards for some appliances and some consumer products and commercial freezers. “It’s all about common sense,” Trump said as he signed the legislation while flanked by Republican lawmakers. The rescission comes amid an ongoing reorganization of the EPA under Director Lee Zeldin. In a video, Zeldin said that before the Trump administration, the regulatory agency was spending $63 billion “including all sorts of political green slush funds”—although it cost only about $8 billion to $10 billion to run the agency. “This reorganization will bring much needed efficiencies to incorporate science into our rulemakings and sharply focus our work on providing the cleanest air, land, and water for our communities. It will also save at least $300 million annually for the American people,” Zeldin said. Such an exclusive focus on air, land, and water cleanliness is a departure from the focus on climate change that has defined the agency in the past, and fits into Trump’s larger commitment to reducing regulations that the president has said harm American energy production and use. Mon, 05/12/2025 - 14:05
Kurdish Militant Group PKK Disbands After 40-Year Conflict With Turkey Kurdish Militant Group PKK Disbands After 40-Year Conflict With Turkey The Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) on Monday announced its decision to disband and end its armed struggle, following a call in February by its imprisoned leader Abdullah Ocalan. The Kurdish armed group, which has waged a war against Turkey since the 1980s, said that it had completed its "historic mission" and brought the Kurdish question to a point where it could be resolved through democratic politics. image The group said Ocalan should be allowed to manage the disbandment process. It also requested solid and integrated legal guarantees to ensure the success of their decision. "At this stage, it is important for the Grand National Assembly of Turkey to play its role with historical responsibility," the PKK's statement said. "Similarly, we call on all political parties represented in the parliament, especially the government and the main opposition party, and civil society organizations to take responsibility and participate in the peace and democratic society process." This historic announcement came after a 40-year-long conflict between Turkey and the PKK. The group initially sought Kurdish independence but later shifted its goal to autonomy and greater rights for Kurds within Turkey. Over the decades, various governments, including that of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, attempted to resolve the issue through legal settlements, but these efforts were unsuccessful, and tens of thousands of lives were lost. Since 2016, Ankara has managed to corner the PKK in northern Iraq by employing sophisticated technology such as drones and signal intelligence capabilities, as well as establishing dozens of military outposts that restrict the group's freedom of movement and infiltration across the border. A source familiar with the matter told Middle East Eye that the PKK's announcement was initially set to be released on Friday, as the government had made some preparations, but internal PKK bureaucracy delayed its release. Ocalan, 76,   in his February address that the armed struggle was a product of a bygone era and that Kurds must seek their rights by participating in democratic societies within nation states. Following his call, the Syrian Democratic Forces, a US-armed group led by PKK offshoots in Syria, then   a deal with the new Damascus government, promising to return control of state institutions to the central administration. Ocalan’s call came after Turkish nationalist leader and key Erdogan ally, Devlet Bahceli,   the PKK leader last year to disband his group, potentially in return for being released into house arrest. Talks with Kurdish DEM party Since then, Bahceli has promised greater democratization in Turkey through phone conversations with the pro-Kurdish DEM Party. The government’s talks with Kurdish opposition groups have also divided the country’s opposition, as they come when popular Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu has been jailed and anti-Erdogan protests have been cracked down on. “Long live the brotherhood of the Turkish and Kurdish peoples and a fully independent Turkey!” Not once a "Long live Kurds" or "Long live Kurdistan." Here's the full statement of the PKK. — Polla Garmiany ☀️ (@PollaGarmiany) Ankara insiders now expect the PKK and Turkish intelligence to announce specifics on how the group will return its arms and formally disband. Turkish officials, speaking on condition of anonymity earlier this year, told MEE that legal studies were underway to allow PKK members who have not participated in armed attacks to be welcomed back to the country. Some officials speculate that the PKK leadership will either remain in northern Iraq, potentially in Sulaymaniyah, or be allowed to relocate to Europe in exile. The DEM Party also expects the government to release thousands of its members imprisoned on non-violent charges and to end the practice of unseating its popularly elected mayors. A key demand is the release of Selahattin Demirtas, a Kurdish-Turkish politician who has been incarcerated since 2016. Mon, 05/12/2025 - 13:45
Iran Rejects 'Unacceptable' US Demand To Dismantle Nuclear Sites Iran Rejects 'Unacceptable' US Demand To Dismantle Nuclear Sites Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has thrown cold water on the possibility of dismantling its nuclear facilities, which Tehran maintains are only for peaceful domestic energy purposes. But top US officials have called for just that. Starting earlier this month Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that Iran has to 'walk away' from uranium enrichment and long-range missile development, while Trump's special envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff just days ago went further, asserting that Iran's uranium enrichment facilities "have to be dismantled" for Washington to trust that it does not want nuclear arms. Pezeshkian in the fresh comments blasted the demand as "unacceptable" and framed it as a matter of national sovereignty and independent development. image "The discussion that has been raised about dismantling Iran's entire nuclear facilities is unacceptable to us," the Iranian president https://www.barrons.com/news/iran-president-says-calls-to-dismantle-nuclear-facilities-unacceptable-2288e347 , adding that "Iran will not give up its peaceful nuclear rights." Still, the country's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi acknowledged Sunday that negotiations with the United States in Oman had become "much more serious and frank" - which suggests positive momentum toward restoring a deal or at least an understanding on which to build a working relationship with Washington. Araqchi in the comments given to Iran's state-run IRIB TV characterized "forward-moving" talks with the US over an array of complex nuclear-related issues. This is despite last Thursday's provocative comments given to   wherein bluntly stated, "They cannot have centrifuges. They have to downblend all of their fuel that they have there and send it to a far-away place.” "An enrichment program can never exist in the state of Iran ever again. That’s our red line," the US envoy asserted further. “I just believe they have no choice” but to accept the White House position against enrichment, continued Witkoff. "Obviously, they can say no, and they can test President Trump, but I think that would be an unwise thing to do." Iranian leadership has tended to brush off such maximalist demands, hoping instead that they can appeal to President Trump's pragmatic deal-making side and willingness to avoid war at all costs. Israel has long threatened preemptive attack on Iran if it believes Tehran is on the cusp of achieving a nuke. Trump has clearly distanced himself from these Israeli efforts to box him into a corner towards starting a new Middle East conflict. President Pezeshkian meanwhile has continued stressing the "peaceful" purposes of the country's nuclear sites, which include t radiopharmaceuticals, healthcare, agriculture, and industry. Despite wielding the most advanced surveillance systems in the world Fox News would have you believe that the US JUST discovered a new Nuclear facility in Iran producing weapons-grade material. How very WMD of you. — Clint Russell (@LibertyLockPod) "We are serious in the negotiations and seek an agreement. We hold talks because we want peace," he said. Iranian officials have of late complained that it's very hard to deal with the United States, given rotating administrations which have the capability to reverse key decisions of prior presidents. Such was the case with the Obama-brokered JCPOA nuclear deal, which Trump unilaterally pulled out of in April 2018. It's as yet unclear the degree to which that original deal's terms will be restored or held to as part of the new ongoing talks. Mon, 05/12/2025 - 12:45
Russia, Ukraine Exchange Large-Scale Drone Fire Despite Plan For Istanbul Peace Talks Russia, Ukraine Exchange Large-Scale Drone Fire Despite Plan For Istanbul Peace Talks "Our top priority remains bringing an end to the fighting and an immediate ceasefire," the State Department said Sunday concerning the war in Ukraine. And yet the overnight exchanges of fire, especially drone attacks on a large scale, doesn't suggest the warring sides are actually any closer to ceasefire, despite that over the weekend President Putin proposed negotiations in Istanbul on May 15, and Zelensky responded by saying he's willing to fly to Turkey to meet with Putin . "I hope that this time, Putin won’t be looking for excuses as to why he 'can’t' make it. We are ready to talk, to end this war," Zelensky stated on X Sunday. "Thursday. Türkiye. President Trump has expressed support. All the leaders support this." Ukraine's Air Force   early Monday that Russia launched dozens of drones across Ukraine overnight. A statement detailed that at least 108 UAVs were sent, which included mostly Iranian-made Shahed drones. "An additional 30 enemy decoy drones were lost due to location failure, with no negative consequences," it sated. The military https://kyivindependent.com/russia-launched-overnight-drone-attack-across-ukraine/ it intercepted 60 of the Iranian suicide drones across the eastern, northern, southern, and central regions of the country - which suggests many still hit their targets. image Emergency authorities https://kyivindependent.com/russian-attacks-may-12/  that at least 22 people were injured the attacks, along with damage in Odesa, Mykolaiv, Donetsk and Zhytomyr regions. Things had been relatively quiet since Friday, given Moscow's unilaterally declared 72-hour ceasefire in observance of WW2 Victory Day events, which went off without incident. Ukraine had seemed to hold to the ceasefire at least by not sending large numbers of drones on Russia, as was the case last week in the days leading up to Friday. Also, the leaders of Britain, France, Germany and Poland were in Kiev Sunday for solidarity and talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. European leaders urged a show of support to Zelensky at a moment some 29 world leaders were in Moscow for the Red Square V-Day parade, including China's Xi and Brazil's Lula. Ukraine and its backers, the United States among them, want an immediate 30-day ceasefire. President Trump is turning up the pressure and expressing frustration with the slowness of dialogue. "President Putin of Russia doesn’t want to have a Cease Fire Agreement with Ukraine, but rather wants to meet on Thursday in Turkey to negotiate a possible end to the BLOODBATH," Trump wrote Sunday on his Truth Social platform. He insisted that Putin and Zelensky should meet directly, even they prove not yet ready to reach any level of compromise. "At least they will be able to determine whether or not a deal is possible, and if it is not, European leaders, and the U.S., will know where everything stands, and can proceed accordingly!" -Trump wrote. Meanwhile, drones didn't just go one way overnight, but Russian officials in southern border regions say Ukrainian forces launched multiple drone and missile attacks on Belgorod and Kursk oblasts, resulting in injuries to civilians and damaged property and infrstructure. A missile hit the town of Rylsk in Kursk Region on Sunday, the region's governor reported. "Two men suffered serious shrapnel wounds to the head and arms, as well as bone fractures – they are in critical condition. A woman received shrapnel wounds to the forearm and thigh, but her life is not in danger," regional head Aleksandr Khinshtein has been quoted as .  Additionally Belgorod Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said of a Ukrainian drone assault, "One woman was injured when a first-person view (FPV) drone struck her moving car on the Krasny Oktyabr-Bessonovka road." image As for Putin's declared V-Day ceasefire, Moscow is still alleging that Ukraine broke it. "During Russian President Vladimir Putin’s unilaterally declared Victory Day truce from May 8 to May 11, Ukrainian forces attempted five cross-border incursions into Belgorod and Kursk regions, all of which failed, according to Russian officials," Russian media . It would be interesting to at least see what comes of the proposed direct Istanbul talks. President Putin is unlikely to go in person, despite the 'challenge' to do so from Zelensky, who is seeking to demonstrate to the White House that Kiev is ready and willing for peace. But we could at least see the two warring sides' negotiating teams meet in Turkey, which would in and of itself be some level of progress.  Mon, 05/12/2025 - 07:20
U.S., China Reach Agreement To Lower Tariffs In 90-Day Cool-Off Period U.S., China Reach Agreement To Lower Tariffs In 90-Day Cool-Off Period China and the U.S. moved to ease trade tensions early Monday, agreeing to a temporary 90-day reduction in reciprocal tariffs on each other's goods, according to a released by both governments on X. The accord, viewed as a breakthrough in a multi-month trade war between the world's two largest economies, helped spark a rally in global markets: S&P 500 futures rose 3%, while Nasdaq futures gained 4%. European markets also advanced, and the U.S. dollar strengthened. U.S. government bonds sold as investors rotated back into equities and other risk-sensitive assets.  The joint statement said that the U.S. will reduce levies on most Chinese imports from 145% to 30% by Wednesday.  https://t.co/NXlayMvBWE — Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) Here's a summary of the U.S. actions: The United States will remove the additional tariffs it imposed on China on April 8 and April 9, 2025, but will retain all duties imposed on China prior to April 2, 2025, including Section 301 tariffs, Section 232 tariffs, tariffs imposed in response to the fentanyl national emergency invoked pursuant to the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, and Most Favored Nation tariffs. The United States will suspend its 34% reciprocal tariff imposed on April 2, 2025 for 90 days, but retain a 10% tariff during the period of the pause. The 10% tariff continues to set a fair baseline that encourages domestic production, strengthens our supply chains and ensures that American trade policy supports American workers first, instead of undercutting them. By imposing reciprocal tariffs, President Trump is ensuring our trade policy works for the American economy, addresses our national emergency brought on by our growing and persistent trade deficit, and levels the playing field for American workers and producers. Unlike previous administrations, President Trump took a tough, uncompromising stance on China to protect American interests and stop unfair trade practices. The breakthrough in the talks also led to China reducing its 125% tariff on U.S. goods to 10%.  Here's a summary of the Chinese actions: China will remove the retaliatory tariffs it announced since April 4, 2025, and will also suspend or remove the non-tariff countermeasures taken against the United States since April 2, 2025. China will also suspend its initial 34% tariff on the United States it announced on April 4, 2025 for 90 days, but will retain a 10% tariff during the period of the pause. The joint statement indicated that Monday's agreement would pave the way for further negotiations between senior officials. On the U.S. side, talks are being led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, while Vice Premier He Lifeng will represent China...  After taking the aforementioned actions, the Parties will establish a mechanism to continue discussions about economic and trade relations. The representative from the Chinese side for these discussions will be He Lifeng, Vice Premier of the State Council, and the representatives from the U.S. side will be Scott Bessent, Secretary of the Treasury, and Jamieson Greer, United States Trade Representative. These discussions may be conducted alternately in China and the United States, or a third country upon agreement of the Parties. As required, the two sides may conduct working-level consultations on relevant economic and trade issues. The White House wrote on X that these trade talks will address America's trade imbalances: The U.S. goods trade deficit with China was $295.4 billion in 2024—the largest with any trading partner. Today's agreement works toward addressing these imbalances to deliver real, lasting benefits to American workers, famers, and businesses. The talks also addressed the ongoing fentanyl crisis. The United States and China will take aggressive actions to stem the flow of fentanyl and other precursors from China to illicit drug producers in North America. https://t.co/xHkmdojKE7 — Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) Shortly after the joint statement was released, Bessent, who led the American delegation at the talks, told reporters in Geneva that both sides have "substantially moved down the tariff levels" and "neither side wants a decoupling."  "We had a very robust and productive discussion on steps forward on fentanyl," Bessent added, pointing out that those talks might lead to "purchasing agreements" by China. . — Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) Commenting on markets, Benedicte Lowe, an equity and derivatives strategist at BNP Paribas Markets 360, told Bloomberg TV that "deescalation was much better than expected by the market" and "for the next couple of days I would expect a bullish environment in the global equity market." Last week, President Trump floated the  " !" trial balloon on Truth Social, noting that the final decision rests with Bessent. image "In our view, equity markets are returning to where they would have moved to if Liberation Day had not happened and Trump had just applied the 10% universal tariff," said Roberto Scholtes, head of strategy at Singular Bank.  Scholtes noted, "Corporate fundamentals are healthy, first quarter results have substantially surprised on the upside, and there's plenty of cash to be invested." "This deescalation is much more positive than anticipated (GSe: 54% U.S. on China tariffs and 34% China on U.S. tariffs) and the market is reacting as such. We are seeing a clear reversal in short USD positions as U.S. recession risks reduce (GSe was 45%!) and risk-on sentiment rises. DXY rallied over 1%, S&P futures surged 3%, 10y UST rose to 4.43%, gold tumbled ~3%," Goldman analyst Yichin Tsai told clients.  S&P 500 futures are up 3%, and Nasdaq futures are up 4%. European stocks are in the green.  image The move toward lower tariffs and easing trade tensions between the world's two largest economies follows Sunday's negotiations, during which both sides reported making " ." Mon, 05/12/2025 - 07:05
Fake News Narrative Of "Empty Ports, Empty Shelves" Suffers Spectacular Implosion Fake News Narrative Of "Empty Ports, Empty Shelves" Suffers Spectacular Implosion It was about one month ago, when as stocks tumbled, economists rushed to catch down to the sliding market by doing what they do best: chasing prices (in this case lower) by slashing their economic forecasts (most notably Goldman Sachs) a move which we mocked at the time, and correctly predicted it would be about a month before these same economists made an "unrecession" their base case once stocks rebounded. Will be so slightly awkward when all the banks who made a recession their base case this week, make an unrecession their base case in 1 month. — zerohedge (@zerohedge) It took less than a month for this forecast to come true, and now that stocks have erased all of their post Liberation Day losses, one of the most closely followed people on Wall Street, Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius, said on CNBC on May 2 - just weeks after declaring that a recession was his base case for 90 minutes - that "The most recent information is certainly consistent with the economy not going through a recession right now".  Of course, the concurrent surge in the Atlanta Fed real-time GDP tracker from -3% (which was dead wrong to where Q1 GDP actually printed) to +2.4% in Q2, only cemented a non-recession base case... Regional Fed GDP tracking update — zerohedge (@zerohedge) ... because the technical definition of a recession - two consecutive negative quarters - meant that with Q2 GDP set to print well in the green, the earliest the US could be declared to be in an official recession was some time in early 2026 when the Q4 2025 GDP number would come out. This was devastating to the liberal wing of the economic profession, not to mention the mainstream media, all of whom had decided that a Trump recession was imminent, and so they had to pivot to something else that would trigger a daily doom and gloom narrative. That something was the hypothesis that with trade war between the US and China raging, it was only a matter of time before west coast ports were empty, as no Chinese containerships would come to the US, and the result would be a covid-like panic scramble for products (remember the legendary toilet paper runs) amid a historic inventory destocking. It was as if the media turned on a dime, and with the "looming recession" narrative suddenly left in the dust, it was instead replaced with story after story about the looming port crisis that would, gasp, result in covid-like empty shelves everywhere across America! " ." You get the picture.  But that was just the beginning, because the liberal media was only just starting its fearmongering campaign to get Americans to panic and to rush out and start stockpiling toilet paper once again. In other words, the "independent press" was hoping to cause the very catastrophic outcome it was "warning" about. Nowhere was this more evident than on MSNBC where anchor and former Deutsche Bank bond salesman, Stephanie Ruhle, no longer an expert intimately familiar with Under Armor (https://www.wsj.com/business/media/under-armour-kevin-plank-stephanie-ruhle-66cb65b5 ), but now a full-blown trade guru, declared that "Donald Trump has been told look at the cargo ships coming in to Seattle, the port of Los Angeles, pick the port. Those ports are getting fewer and fewer ships with less and less cargo. And unless he turns this around, three weeks from now, you walk into a store and we're going to have a covid-like supply chain crisis, and Trump is looking for an exit." "Unless he turns this around, three weeks from now, you walk into a store and we're going to have a covid-like supply chain crisis, and Trump is looking for an exit" -- here's the — Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) But, as always happens, it was CNN that finally took this "broken telephone" narrative to its absurd conclusion, when the media outlet that has become the butt of all propaganda jokes declared that "https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/10/business/zero-ships-china-trade-ports-pandemic ." image ... an article written by CNN's Business and Politics correspondent, , who like MSNBC's Ruhle above, is now a full-blown expert on naval commerce and logistics as a quick scan of her latest articles reveals. image So up until this point we had stayed away from this idiotic discussion, which merely demonstrated how little understanding so-called experts actually have of a nuanced and complicated topic as trade and global commerce. However, CNN's idiocy was the last straw. But before we go there, a quick look at what has been really taking place. First, regarding the claim that west coast ports have seen a sharp drop in inbound traffic, there certainly has been a modest decline in February and March inbound traffic, but a decline from a near-record print in January, which in turn was the result of inventory restocking ahead of what most retailers knew would be a trade war. After all, Trump had made it clear about a year ago that he had every intention of restarting trade war with the world, and especially China, and only someone watching CNN would be surprised by the recent sharp spike in tariffs, a move which incidentally was never meant to be permanent but was a strategy meant to inflict max pain and get trading partners to the negotiating table. In any case, the total inbound traffic to California ports shown below is hardly the apocalypse the liberal media has been making it out to be (and even Reuters discusses this in "https://www.reuters.com/business/near-record-us-container-import-streak-expected-snap-may-due-tariffs-2025-05-08/ "). image Then, addressing the topic of imminent product shortages, this was another fake news narrative meant to spark panic and chaos, and resulting in just the outcome the media was "warning" about. Because if it hurts Trump, it's great for MSNBC and CNN... and of course China, which begs the question: just how much "ad dollars" and/or sponsorship have these media outlets received from Beijing and Chinese companies in recent months. As the following charts from Deutsche Bank demonstrate clearly, what has been taking place in recent months - and why we are now seeing the reverse - is record prebuying and excess imports... image ... which according to Deutsche Bank has led to precisely the opposite outcome than the one MSNBC and CNN have been blasting: there is excess inventory in the supply channel, enough in fact to last weeks if not months, assuming a full-blown collapse in global trade, which of course would never happen absent a covid-like shock. image Additionally, if and when retailers end up liquidating these billions in excess inventories they have accumulated just for this contingency, the outcome would be wildly deflationary, and hardly the inflationary shock so many "experts" predict (that's the topic of another post, and we'll get to it eventually). Going back to the media's favorite topic of dropping cargoes from China, it wasn't just us that countered the popular narrative: so did Standard Chartered's Steve Englander who wrote last week that "the lurid headlines on the drop in cargoes from China may be misleading." That's because as we noted above, the volume of laden cargo now being shipped from China to the US is down almost 50% versus mid-April 2025, but the mid-April level was very high, and while you will never hear this on CNN, the current level is about on a par with much of 2023. In fact, Englander said that "the current pace as the low end of normal over the last couple of years." Only again, hardly the apocalypse Kevin Plank's favorite media body https://www.wsj.com/business/media/under-armour-kevin-plank-stephanie-ruhle-66cb65b5 portrays it to be. image There's more: another thing you would never hear on MSNBC or CNN is that if the early-May pace of shipping to the US is maintained though end-June, the cumulative amount shipped in H1-2025 would be 18% higher than in H1-2023 and only 5% lower than in H1-2024. So far this year, the tonnage shipped to the US is 40% higher than in 2023 and 9% higher than in 2024. Indeed, as noted above, and as Englander observes, "US importers may have an inventory buffer until tariffs are negotiated downwards." image Taking a step back, if only for the benefit of our CNN and MSNBC readers, the big picture is one that even if the US were to lose all Chinese imports - an outcome which nobody anticipates as it would destroy China's economy as Reuters admitted last week - the outcome to the US would hardly be devastating. Yes, prices would rise, but overall the US would be able to handle it. Here, again, is Englander explaining why: US imports from China are about 1.6% of US GDP in value terms. If inbound cargo stays at early-May levels, then H2-2025 imports will be 85% of 2023 levels (in volume terms) and 67% of 2024 levels. So the import volume shock would be 0.25% of GDP relative to 2023 and 0.5% relative to 2024. And keep in mind that there may be substitution from elsewhere. There may be temporary delays as US importers figure out the practicalities of dealing with the new tariffs, and shipping may be down temporarily because importers stocked up ahead of tariff implementation. There is little precedent for this kind of tariff shock, but our judgement is that the US economy can handle it. We agree that disruption is likely from tariffs and that any benefits are uncertain, but we don’t think that the US economy will fall off a precipice because of a shock of this magnitude. Remarkably, none of the so-called experts predicting doom and gloom in recent days spent even a minute to consider this eventuality. Which is also why the left's attempt to spark widespread panic by focusing on Chinese imports had largely been a dud... and why it forced the media to escalate its claims to ever more ludicrous proportions, until we got the CNN story that there were "zero ships from China are bound for California's top ports." And this is where we drew the line because it takes about a 10 second google search on any of the marine tracking websites such as to find out this is total bullshit. And the fact that CNN didn't even consider that not all of its readers are absolute idiots who would accept its lies with zero pushback, is what was most remarkable. Below is a chart from Bloomberg showing all the Dry Cargo/Container ships that have recently left China, and are currently in the water, headed for Wast Coast ports. image According to Bloomberg, there are no less than 52 cargo ships currently sailing from China to California and the West Coast, with the full list shown below. image It goes without saying that 52 is quite different from the zero ships headed to the US, as https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/10/business/zero-ships-china-trade-ports-pandemic , and to put that number in context, here is what the average number of ships heading across from China to the US has been in 2025: January 59 ships February 56 March 55 April 55 And now May is 52. So that drop - from 55 to 52 - is supposed to be the "covid-like emergency" that the mainstream propaganda media is urging Americans to run to their local Walmart and stock up on 1 year of toilet paper? But it gets worse for CNN, because while we can understand if they don't have access to Bloomberg, or even google as a result of recent cuts in USAID funding, they could have just gone to the Port of Los Angeles website to look at the public Port Optimizer data which shows that contrary to fake narratives of collapsing global trade, the import volumes for the week of May 18-24 are up 19% from the previous week and up a whopping 56% from a year ago. image And another way of showing it: here is the total number of container ships sailing from China to the US (in TEUs). The number on May 11 is higher than where it was in 2024 and the same as May 2023. But you won't hear any of that on CNN. image Instead, this is what you will hear on CNN: "On Friday morning, West Coast port officials told CNN about a startling sight: Not a single cargo vessel had left China with goods for the two major West Coast ports in the past 12 hours. That hasn’t happened since the pandemic." Only this attempt to spark panic (while evoking the covid pandemic for obvious reasons) is also dead wrong: first, consider that there are currently 52 ships transiting the Pacific from China to SoCal, in line with historic numbers: the trip takes 20 days which means 2.6 ships sailing each day or one ship every 9 to 10 hours. So a 12 hour period is not unusual. And, as Sal Mercogliano points out, while no ships may have set sail for California on Friday, a quick look at Marine Traffic shows that three ships - Cosco Africa, Ever Safety and Ever Mild - are all leaving China for SoCal this weekend. So much for that "startling sight." 6/The story said 41 ships were scheduled to sail, but on Friday it was zero. This does not mean the 41 are not sailing. A quick look — Sal Mercogliano (WGOW Shipping) 🚢⚓🐪🚒🏴‍☠️ (@mercoglianos) https://twitter.com/mercoglianos/status/1921308576997351543?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw We could continue but you - unlike CNN - get the picture: transpacific trade may have slowed down, but it is nowhere near the full ground stop observed for a few weeks during covid, not even remotely close. Meanwhile, the entire discussion about empty ports and empty shelves is completely moot because https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/trade-talks-begin-chinese-exporters-prepare-get-goods-moving-us-again-2025-05-09/ even before the news of this weekend's US-China trade talks breakthrough hit, "China-based shipping agents have resumed buying container space for goods headed for the United States after a series of U.S. tariff-induced cancellations, as Beijing and Washington head for trade talks in Switzerland." And here is https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/trade-talks-begin-chinese-exporters-prepare-get-goods-moving-us-again-2025-05-09/ what we said several days ago: "Since late April, however, traders have stepped up buying of shipping capacity, locking in space from mid-May, according to two China-based executives with freight forwarding firms."  Or precisely what we said a week ago. Ships sailing from China to US hits 2 week high. But Long Beach was supposed to be a ghost port — zerohedge (@zerohedge) And remarkably, and contrary to anything you may hear on CNN or MSNBC, shipping from China to the US is actually set for another surge! According to Dominic Desmarais, chief solutions officer at Liya Solutions which connects small and medium-sized companies with suppliers in China making everything from furniture to titanium products, prices could go up by $500 per container after May 15 as shipping activity recovers.  So much for CNN's fake news. We'll leave readers with another far more critical discussion topic, namely whether tariffs lead to inflation, something about which we will have more to say in the coming days since this has become a focal point of much economic debate in recent months, not just in the political arena but also inside the Fed.  And while Fed Chair Powell appears to be very "confused" once again, claiming that tariffs are inflationary with the same erroneous conviction he previously argued "inflation was transitory" - we will instead point you to the recent work of Javier Bianchi, senior research economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, who thinks tariffs are not just a negative supply shock, but also a negative demand shock, and argues that the optimal monetary policy response to tariffs - which lead not to inflation but threaten recession - is to cut rates. For much more on this critical issue read " ", something we are 100% certain neither CNN or MSNBC will never do. Mon, 05/12/2025 - 00:16
Who Won The Latest Indo-Pak Conflict? Who Won The Latest Indo-Pak Conflict? Opinions are mixed about who came out on top in the  , but one thing is for certain, and it’s that India’s new doctrine is the lasting takeaway.  image According to https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/any-future-act-of-terror-by-pakistan-to-be-considered-act-of-war-sources-8379594/ , India will regard all future acts of terrorism as acts of war by Pakistan, which will result in cross-border strikes.  That might not deter Pakistan, whose military leadership relies on the unresolved Kashmir Conflict to legitimize its outsized influence, but it could still make them think twice about orchestrating future attacks. Moreover, the Indus Waters Treaty remains suspended despite the fragile ceasefire/”understanding” between them, which collectively contributes to the new reality in South Asia. Reports also suggest that it was Pakistan, not India, which asked the US to diplomatically intervene in the latest conflict. About that, India denied that any mediation took place despite the US’ claims, but the US probably passed along messages from Pakistan to India on Islamabad’s behalf during talks between their officials. https://edition.cnn.com/2025/05/10/politics/vance-modi-india-pakistan-intelligence  across the country. If that’s indeed what happened, then it would imply that Pakistan believed that was losing, thus lending credence to perceptions that India got the best of it. After all, the aforesaid strikes weren’t intercepted, which shows that India achieved escalatory dominance over Pakistan. Although some Pakistani drones and missiles hit targets inside of India, Russia’s S-400s were https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/all-about-the-s-400-defence-system-used-by-india-to-neutralise-pak-missiles-8362623  in India’s successful attacks against Pakistani bases, thus proving that Russian military equipment is truly some of the best in the world. By contrast, Pakistan’s mostly Chinese equipment fell short of some observers’ lofty expectations, which reflects negatively on both. Nevertheless, many in the https://thealtworld.com/andrew_korybko/a-review-of-the-most-common-roles-in-the-alt-media-community  – including some top “Non-Russian Pro-Russians” – insist that Pakistan defeated India, though there are reasons to suspect that they don’t actually believe this but are driven by ulterior motives in claiming otherwise. Most of these same figures are known for their support of Palestine and/or China, and given that India is close to Israel and at odds with China, supporting Pakistan is “ideologically consistent” with their views and precludes accusations of hypocrisy. No matter how reliable their takes on Ukraine, Palestine, and whatever else might be, their views on the latest Indo-Pak conflict should therefore be taken with lots of salt. This is important to keep in mind since Putin and Modi “emphasised the need to uncompromisingly fight terrorism in all its forms” <a href="http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/76841" rel="nofollow">during their call</a> last week, which isn’t reflected by these top “Non-Russian Pro-Russians” who present themselves as interpreters of Russian foreign policy.  Their support of Pakistan over India contradicts Russian interests. All told, while opinions are mixed about who came out on top in the latest Indo-Pak conflict, India arguably won seeing as how it punished Pakistan for the https://thealtworld.com/andrew_korybko/pakistans-military-leader-has-the-most-to-gain-lose-from-the-pahalgam-terrorist-attack  by bombing multiple bases, the Indus Waters Treaty remains suspended, and a new military doctrine has entered into effect. Pakistan achieved no comparable outcomes despite its supporters’ claims. Even though it lost, Pakistan might not have learned its lesson, so a re-eruption of hostilities at some future time can’t be ruled out. Sun, 05/11/2025 - 23:35
Here's What The World's Paying For Eggs Here's What The World's Paying For Eggs As the global population grows and demand for affordable protein increases, eggs remain a dietary staple. On average, people consume roughly 10 kilograms of eggs per year. However, prices have spiked in recent years due to avian flu outbreaks and rising feed, fuel, and labor costs, which farmers are passing on to consumers. In just four years, egg prices in the U.S. have  . This chart,  and official national statistics. Currency values are converted as of April 24, 2025. image Switzerland Tops the List Switzerland tops the global chart, with consumers paying an average of $7.31 per dozen eggs—the highest price globally and nearly double what shoppers pay in neighboring Italy. On the other hand, India offers the lowest egg prices, with a dozen costing just $0.97, reflecting broader affordability in emerging markets. Rank Country Price (USD) 🥇 1 🇨🇭 Switzerland $7.27 🥈 2 🇳🇿 New Zealand $6.40 🥉 3 🇮🇸 Iceland $6.23 4 🇧🇧 Barbados $5.39 5 🇩🇰 Denmark $4.93 6 🇱🇺 Luxembourg $4.91 7 🇳🇱 Netherlands $4.76 8 🇦🇹 Austria $4.54 9 🇬🇷 Greece $4.39 10 🇸🇪 Sweden $4.34 11 🇳🇴 Norway $4.32 12 🇦🇺 Australia $4.27 13 🇺🇸 United States $4.25 14 🇫🇷 France $4.22 15 🇹🇹 Trinidad & Tobago $4.20 16 🇮🇪 Ireland $4.20 17 🇺🇾 Uruguay $4.17 18 🇨🇾 Cyprus $4.17 19 🇮🇱 Israel $4.03 20 🇬🇧 United Kingdom $3.94 21 🇧🇪 Belgium $3.93 22 🇮🇹 Italy $3.93 23 🇩🇪 Germany $3.77 24 🇸🇮 Slovenia $3.69 25 🇸🇰 Slovakia $3.68 26 🇭🇷 Croatia $3.63 27 🇲🇹 Malta $3.63 28 🇨🇱 Chile $3.59 29 🇦🇱 Albania $3.58 30 🇨🇦 Canada $3.50 U.S. Prices Rise Amid Shortages and Policy Shifts Egg prices in the United States climbed sharply through the end of the Biden administration (topping $8 per dozen), thanks to a combination of avian flu outbreaks, and supply chain disruptions drove costs higher, surpassing prices in many European nations and Canada.  The last few weeks, since President Trump took over, egg prices have tumbled back below $4 per dozen... image Emerging Markets Offer Relative Bargains Despite global inflation, several emerging markets remain egg-price havens. In Brazil, Russia, and China, consumers pay under $2 per dozen, making eggs a highly accessible protein source for large populations. To learn more about food prices, check out this   that shows the cost of a McDonald’s Big Mac in different countries worldwide in U.S. dollars. Fri, 05/09/2025 - 22:10
"Greatest Tightening Shock The Market Has Ever Seen": Chinese Copper Stocks To Run Out In Weeks "Greatest Tightening Shock The Market Has Ever Seen": Chinese Copper Stocks To Run Out In Weeks Not too long ago, we reported that China was stockpiling virtually every form of commodity known to man, from corn to crude and corn... and especially copper: according to a JPMorgan report in early 2022, China held an estimated 84% of all global copper. China currently holds an estimated 84% of global copper, 70% of corn, 51% of wheat, 40% of soybeans, 26% of crude oil and 22% of aluminum inventories: JPM — zerohedge (@zerohedge) Fast forward three years, when Geneva-based commodities trading giant Mercuria now predicts that China's copper stockpiles are on track to dwindle to nothing in just a few months - if not weeks - as the market suffers “one of the greatest tightening shocks” in its history, as unprecedented demand from both the US and China, a surge in a trans-Atlantic arb trade, and mounting fears of US tariffs, unleash havoc in the copper market. In many ways comparable to the record scramble to deliver physical gold to US Comex vaults in late 2024 and early 2025, Mercuria said that huge US demand - as buyers rushed to get their hands on copper ahead of the potential imposition of tariffs by the Trump administration - was sucking imports of the metal into the country from the rest of the world and setting it up in direct competition with China for supplies. As a result, Chinese copper stocks have plunged over the past few weeks, and “at the current pace of draws, those Chinese inventories could deplete [to zero] by the middle of June”, Nicholas Snowdon, Mercuria’s head of metals and mining research, told . As shown below, last week the country’s inventories fell by almost 55,000 tonnes to 116,800 tonnes last week, the biggest weekly drop on record. At this rate of decline, Chinese copper stocks would run out in 2 weeks time. image This “is potentially going to be one of the greatest tightening shocks this market’s ever seen”, Snowdon said. Beijing had a “razor thin inventory buffer” to meet domestic demand, he added. Ironically, copper prices tumbled after Liberation Day to the lowest level in over a year, only to surge again as copper demand in China proved remarkably resilient despite headwinds from the US-led trade war and the nation’s property crisis, with buyers taking advantage of price slumps to snap up supplies. “The copper market remains in a tight balance, despite macro-economic difficulties,” Xiao Qianjun, vice general manager of trade business at Jiangxi Copper, a top smelter, told an industry conference this week. After prices fell recently, “spot orders from fabricators exploded,” Xiao said. At the same time, there is growing speculation Beijing may ramp up stimulus to support the world’s second-largest economy - and especially the copper-intensive housing market - to counter more challenging overseas conditions as Trump imposes punishing tariffs, while also holding out the promise of talks and a deal.  “Demand in the spot market, from surveys of downstream users or apparent consumption, are all very good,” Angela Bi, head of Asian metals and mineral research at Mercuria said at a conference, held by Shanghai Metals Market in Nanchang, Jiangxi. Indicators “are too good to be true,” Bi added. Meanwhile, the Yangshan premium - a gauge of import demand - recently hit the highest since 2023. And local yuan-priced futures are steeply backwardated, a bullish pattern that points to near-term tightness. The problem is that besides soaring domestic Chinese demand, there is also massive demand for physical copper from the US. Mercuria's head of metals and mining, Kostas Bintas, said the US was for the “first time” competing with China for supplies of copper, which was likely to supercharge prices. The impact of US protectionism on the copper market adds to pressure from Chinese domestic demand and retaliatory levies that could hit vital flows of copper scrap. Similar to the frenzied record deliveries of physical gold to Comex, metal traders have been importing massive amounts of copper into the US ahead of possible tariffs, which could result from an investigation initiated by US President Donald Trump into alleged “dumping and state sponsored overproduction” of the metal. He has already imposed a 25% levy on aluminium and steel imports. And just like gold, copper stocks in Comex warehouses in the US have soared this month to their highest level on Friday since 2018. image Helping drive supplies to the US is the same arbitrage observed in late 2024 in the gold market, one created by investors' fear of tariffs, among others. This has pushed up sharply the price of the metal on New York’s Comex exchange in comparison with prices on London’s London Metal Exchange. This spread has created an unprecedented arb for traders who buy copper futures contracts in London and sell contracts in New York. The spread stood at nearly $1,200 per tonne on Monday, having risen above $1,600 in March, well above its long-term average of roughly $0. image The arb has been so popular, a potential short squeeze is emerging: as the FT reports, "some traders who had large commitments to sell copper on Comex have been urgently trying to get their hands on additional tonnes into the US to cover those short positions before any new tariffs were introduced, said Bintas." Which explains the panic scramble of physical out of China and into the US... because if they don't "get their hands on additional tonnes", the price of copper could go vertical. There could be even more chaos: retaliatory tariffs imposed by China on US imports could also hit the crucial copper scrap market, analysts said, adding to the tightness in the Chinese market. That could worsen if the US imposes a ban on the export of copper scrap, of which it is a big exporter. It shipped 960,000 tonnes in 2024, with almost half going to China, according to commodity pricing agency Fastmarkets. In January and February, the latest data available, the US exported 142,000 tonnes in total, compared with 149,000 during the same period last year. That number could quickly hit zero if Washington decided to impose an embargo on the commodity to hammer Beijing, which urgently needs copper to develop everything from electrical infrastructure, to AI data centers, to ghost cities. Sure enough, Andrew Cole, a metals analyst at Fastmarkets, said he expected “a significant plunge in scrap shipments from the US to China in March to May at the very least. “That’s what will lead to the escalation of supply squeeze in China we have been expecting to develop as the year progresses,” he said. “Imported copper scrap stockpiles in China have dropped significantly,” said Mercuria's Bi However, while Chinese stocks were being depleted, in reality markets would react before stocks reached zero, with higher prices attracting more imports of copper and scrap, said Snowdon. “That comes at the point of record pull of copper units into the US. As those two forces meet that creates an unprecedented competition for copper,” he said. Tue, 04/29/2025 - 22:02
LA To Institute Mass Layoffs Of City Workers In Wake Of $1 Billion Deficit LA To Institute Mass Layoffs Of City Workers In Wake Of $1 Billion Deficit For many years now the narrative on California is that it is a country unto itself and it generates so many tax dollars the federal government and red states should be throwing a garden party in its honor.  In reality, California is not a "donor state" as the Rockefeller Institute claims.  It can't even support itself, let alone bolster the rest of the country. This problem has become more evident in the past year as Los Angeles hits a budget deficit of a billion dollars and, the state government doesn't have the funds to help the city recover because of it's 📄.pdf . In response to the lack of aid from the state or federal government, Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass unveiled a proposed $13.9 billion municipal budget for fiscal year 2025-26, which includes more than 1,600 layoffs and the consolidation of four city departments in an effort to eliminate the overdraft.  Though LA employs around 50,000 people in total and the layoffs might seem minor in comparison, the city's expansive programs require employee growth this year, not cuts.  Furthermore, it is likely that the 1600 fired workers are just the beginning.  The city removed at least 2000 positions from its employee roster at the end of last year and is already moving to make cuts to existing workers. It's no coincidence that LA is in fiscal trouble in 2025, and it's not only because of the $2 billion in damages associated with the recent wildfires.  After decades of decadent debt spending CA is deeply dependent on federal funds.  Federal budget cuts and the shutdown of agencies like USAID are having far reaching consequences, especially in progressive states with a heavy emphasis on socialized programs.   For example, the federal Department of Health and Human Services recently terminated $12 billion in grants intended for infectious disease response, mental health services and other public health issues.  At least $1 billion of this cash was supposed to go to California in 2025.  Covid money is funneled into various health departments and other projects and California was the biggest recipient of pandemic funds by far with https://pandemicoversight.gov/data-interactive-tools/states/ca .  Some critics argue that covid relief in California was wrongly exploited as a financial boon for various state agencies, politicians and employees. Now the pandemic funding is finally cut off after 5 years.  $45 million of the $1 billion lost was supposed to go to Los Angeles.  The LAPD is also losing due to federal funding cuts.  The agency and city officials are trying to sort out the potential impact of being cut-off from millions of dollars in law enforcement and homeland security grants, following the US Justice Department’s announcement such programs would be suspended for any municipality that considered itself a so-called, “sanctuary city,” that bars local officers from playing a role in immigration enforcement. image The Orange County Register reported last month that Orange County will lose out on https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/california-coastal-bluff-funding-20242812.php in federal earmarks for 2025, money that was previously approved for community projects. California schools have been warned by the Trump Administration that if they don't stop instituting DEI programs and indoctrination, they will lose at in funding, with $1.26 billion of that going to the Los Angeles Unified School District. The sheer enormity of federal funds floating around California should be taken into account, but also the fact that despite access to so much money California and LA are still facing a massive budget shortfalls.  The chances of this dilemma being solved through layoffs and department consolidation is next to nil.  The real root of the problem is policy driven; Democrat welfare programs, social programs and their open border mentality have resulted in a never ending drain on their finances, slowing destroying what was once one of the greatest states in the nation. Fri, 04/25/2025 - 17:20