The Wicked Flee... The Wicked Flee... "No more government in the shadows."  - Mike Benz The decade-long treasonous hectoring of Mr. Trump keeps on coming, you understand, for the simple reason that there have been absolutely zero consequences for any of the vicious rogues behind it.  Not so much as a rap on the knuckles for seeking to overthrow a president, steal elections, hide high crimes, rob the treasury, and recklessly frame the innocent. And suddenly this week, as startling as a mythic goddess of justice riding a spring zephyr, comes a brisk demonstration of exactly what-to-do. image Days ago, Governor Phil Murphy of New Jersey ordered his state police to not cooperate with federal immigration enforcement officers (ICE) — a nice bit of grandstanding for a guy seeking to occupy the Democratic Party’s leadership vacuum. So, Thursday night, newly-appointed US Attorney for the New Jersey federal district, Alina Habba, opened a criminal investigation against Gov. Murphy for “obstruction and concealment.”  That means, possibly, jail. Badda-bing! This ain’t no foolin’ around. The reason the Democrat pols and their activist agents pule and mewl about “retribution” is because they know they are guilty of so many manifest crimes against the country and against decency, that a fair system would have jailed or hanged them by now.  They evaded their reckonings only because their own filthy mitts gripped the levers of justice until very recently. Since January 20, that has obviously changed.  But two questions have dogged the necessary restoration of fairness and good faith in the backbone of government we call the law. 1) Since the culpable are such well-known figures — the Clintons, Obama, Biden, Comey, Brennan, Mayorkas, Garland, Wray, Fauci, Collins, Pelosi, Eisen, Weissmann, McCord, Schiff, and dozens more: how do you seek justice without appearing to “go after” individuals in the old Soviet mode of “show me the person and I’ll find you the crime”? And where do you begin with such a cosmic-scale panorama of treasonous malfeasance spanning many years and many theaters-of-action? I’d say US Attorney Alina Habba’s move this week is an excellent place to start. For one thing, Governor Murphy’s defiant act is a fresh crime, only days old, and a clear-cut one: you can’t order state officials to flout federal law, especially where public safety is concerned. Ms. Habba smacked him instantly, like an insolent biting insect. Now, follow through. Prosecute. Mere apologies not accepted. No “mulligan” on that shot. If she brings a case, then other mayors and governors of the many self-proclaimed “sanctuary” jurisdictions around the country, trolling for virtue brownie points in their Woke waters, will rethink their lawless posturing. Couple of other good starts just this week.  Mr. Trump issued executive orders yesterday that will afford a fresh look into some older but critical crimes against the nation.  One directs US Attorney General Bondi to investigate the actions of a key player in wide-ranging 2020 election mischief. From the White House memo itself: Christopher Krebs, the former head of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), is a significant bad-faith actor who weaponized and abused his government authority. Krebs’ misconduct involved the censorship of disfavored speech implicating the 2020 election and COVID-19 pandemic. CISA, under Krebs’ leadership, suppressed conservative viewpoints under the guise of combatting supposed disinformation, and recruited and coerced major social media platforms to further its partisan mission. CISA covertly worked to blind the American public to the controversy surrounding Hunter Biden’s laptop. Krebs, through CISA, promoted the censorship of election information, including known risks associated with certain voting practices. Similarly, Krebs, through CISA, falsely and baselessly denied that the 2020 election was rigged and stolen, including by inappropriately and categorically dismissing widespread election malfeasance and serious vulnerabilities with voting machines. Krebs skewed the bona fide debate about COVID-19 by attempting to discredit widely shared views that ran contrary to CISA’s favored perspective. Next, the White House directed an investigation of Homeland Security officer Miles Taylor who proclaimed, during the first Trump term in an anonymous New York Times op-ed, that he was party to “a resistance within the Federal Government that ‘vowed’ to undermine and render ineffective a sitting president... [T]his conduct could properly be characterized as treasonous and as possibly violating the Espionage Act,” the EO said.  Sounds serious, a little bit. Next, in another EO, the White House severely disciplined the swamp law firm Susman Godfrey for its racist DEI activism in the federal agencies it did work for, saying, “Lawyers and law firms that engage in activities detrimental to critical American interests should not have access to our nation’s secrets, nor should their conduct be subsidized by Federal taxpayer funds or contracts.” Hence, Sussman Godfrey lost its security clearances, its federal work contracts were cancelled, and its lawyers are barred from entering federal buildings, including courthouses.  FAFO. Next, Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard announced at Thursday’s cabinet meeting that her office has obtained evidence of massive vulnerabilities in voting machines that allow hackers to flip votes. This has long been written off as “baseless conspiracy theory” for years by degenerate news outlets like The New York Times. The key word in Ms. Gabbard’s statement, is “evidence.” You realize, of course, that there is no reason to use vote-counting machines in our election except for the purpose of hacking and cheating. Most other putatively “democratic” nations use paper ballots and manage to tabulate and report election results within twenty-four hours. Of course, this motley batch of sudden cases — Gov. Murphy of NJ, Chris Krebs, Miles Taylor, Susman Godfrey — are relative outliers to the notorious operations such as RussiaGate, the Schiff-Vindman-Ciaramella-Eisen plot behind Impeachment No. 1, The Covid-19 intrigue, The BLM rampage, the Hunter Biden Laptop ruse (and Biden family’s bribery and treason), J-6 riot and the DNC Pipe-bomb caper, and four years of a wide-open border.  That long train of crimes, seditions, and treasons came close to wrecking the country.  We know exactly who was behind and involved in all of that.  What remains is the heavy-lifting to build cases that can be brought to grand juries in good faith.  Perhaps a comprehensive omnibus RICO case can incorporate all of these in what appears to amount to a single, complex orchestrated, long-running attempted coup. Don’t bet that this isn’t coming. And, by-the-way, the infamous “Crossfire-Hurricane” binder was just released last night. As of this writing, there is almost no analysis available yet. Stand by. Fri, 04/11/2025 - 16:20
Paying A Heavy Price For Going After A Tax-Cheat Named Hunter Biden Paying A Heavy Price For Going After A Tax-Cheat Named Hunter Biden , Joe Ziegler is not a beaten man – not for his antagonists’ lack of trying. Across his seven-year pursuit of Hunter Biden’s unpaid taxes, Ziegler, a special agent in the Internal Revenue Service’s criminal investigative division, and his colleague Gary Shapley were shunned, threatened, and lied to. Ziegler was doxed. Shapley was told to accept a demotion or resign. Convinced the IRS and Department of Justice were stonewalling their efforts to bring charges against a sitting president’s son, the agents went public as whistleblowers in 2023.  image The result, during the hyper-polarized years spanning the Trump-to-Biden-to-Trump administrations, was predictable: The two men were accused of partisanship, lambasted by Democratic members of Congress and the press, and had their reputations impugned by high-powered lawyers paid for by those sympathetic to the Bidens.  The fortunes of these political victims have now turned. In mid-March, incoming Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced Ziegler and Shapley would start work as senior advisers, helping to guide tax reform. Which is all the agents had ever wanted and tried to do. “At the end of the day, this is truly about doing the right thing and standing up for what is right,” Ziegler would testify before the House Ways & Means Committee in December 2023. “I will say this again and again, this is much bigger than the Hunter Biden investigation. This was not a personal attack on Hunter Biden, but a call for change.” While the reprisals they say they endured for their acts of conscience appear to have ended, Ziegler and Shapely do not want their experience to be memory-holed – especially because  during the Biden administration have received less attention for their tribulations. Speaking with RealClearInvestigations recently, the two men gave their first in-depth interviews on the years-long case that upended their lives and careers.  *** “He was paying individuals, so, prostitutes, that were associated with that company,” Ziegler said. A little digging revealed Hunter Biden’s ex-wife reporting he had not paid his taxes and, in their divorce filings, mentioning “a very large diamond he received,” a gem allegedly valued at $80,000 and given to him by an executive at a Chinese energy company.  “I look into our IRS systems and see that he had unfiled tax returns for multiple years,” said Ziegler. “When you fail to file tax returns and you have income that qualifies you to file tax returns, that’s a misdemeanor offense.”  A misdemeanor that can rise to the level of a felony, depending on the dollar amount and the length of time the would-be filer has been delinquent. Hunter Biden looked to qualify on both counts. The case should have been a cakewalk, and yet almost immediately, Ziegler suspected he was being stonewalled: Interviews he requested were denied, and coworkers subtly and not so subtly warned him to tap the brakes. “My manager at the time, who wasn’t Gary [Shapley], made it very, very hard for me,” Ziegler told RCI. “He said, ‘When you work with high-profile people like this, you need way more information, way more evidence.’ He essentially set the bar higher, which I didn’t agree with at all.” Even if he had set the bar higher, Hunter Biden’s actions would have cleared it, with multiple and well-documented instances of tax evasion, including not reporting more than $1 million in payments from the Ukrainian energy company Burisma. Still, Ziegler noted a determined lack of urgency within the IRS to move the case along. “It was a lot of hard work on my end, pushing everyone on the case to be like, ‘We need to do this. We need to go interview these people.’ And every single time I hit a roadblock or hit someone telling me, ‘No, we shouldn’t do that.’” After more than a year of pushback, Ziegler found an ally in Shapley, who took control of the investigation in January 2020. A supervisory special agent with 14 years at the agency, Shapley assumed the case would be handled routinely. “I expected everyone was going to act appropriately,” he said. “It was just another case, and that’s how I approached it.” And not much of one, compared to others he’d worked on, including getting Credit Suisse to plead guilty in 2014 to helping U.S. taxpayers hide offshore accounts, resulting in a $2.6 billion fine.  “When you stick to just the way that it’s always been done, then it doesn't matter who you’re investigating,” he said. “I really thought that, even though [people] did a lot of these things that shielded Joe Biden from a full investigation, that they were still going to do the right thing concerning Hunter Biden.”  This might have been the case had Trump/Biden politics not become a blood sport. Shapley found no appetite within his department to issue subpoenas or execute search warrants. The lack of access accelerated when Joe Biden became the presidential nominee. A request in late 2020 to search a guest house he owned and in which Hunter Biden was staying was denied, as were requests to interview Biden family members. Why the hold-ups? Shapley said he’d “never been told by our leadership, ‘nod nod, wink wink,’” that they were meant to handle the case with a delicacy that actually prevented them from doing their jobs. Fearing their investigation was turning into Kabuki theater, Shapley began creating a second record of what the agents saw as untoward resistance.  “When we started having problems, I started documenting issues and deviations from normal procedures,” said Shapley.“With the search warrants that weren’t being executed, even though there was probable cause, that’s when it became apparent that he [Hunter Biden] was receiving special treatment.” The agents, too, were receiving special treatment of a sort. Ziegler was yanked off other investigations he was working on. Requests that Shapley made went unacknowledged or disappeared into the ether. And both agents saw colleagues keep their distance, reluctant apparently to offer even the appearance of support. “They completely isolated us,” said Ziegler. “No one reaching out, no one asking questions. There was a lack of empathy, a lack of caring within my agency, and it’s sad.” For two years, he and Shapley engaged in a Sisyphean struggle to move the Hunter Biden case along, a situation that went from remarkable to ludicrous to untenable.  “It was me and Gary on weekly FaceTime calls, literally [saying], ‘I can’t believe they did this. I can’t believe they’re not letting me do my job. They’re not letting us do the right thing,’” said Ziegler. “And then it culminated to a point where we ended up blowing the whistle.” *** Their concern and frustration grew ever more intense because the facts of wrongdoing the agents  uncovered were so clear. Between 2014 and 2019, they found that Hunter Biden had failed to pay taxes on more than $8.3 million in income derived from various sources, including those in China, Ukraine, and Romania. Whether some of that money landed in the bank accounts of Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. may continue to be debated until only cockroaches roam the earth, but one can assume the people who gave the younger Biden a 3.4-carat diamond were at least hoping for access to his father. The evidence showed that Hunter Biden evaded paying taxes by filing false returns, claiming personal expenses such as payments to prostitutes, a $25,000 sex club membership, and, more wholesome if alas nondeductible, college tuition for his children. As a result, he owed at least $1.4 million in federal taxes, elevating his alleged violations to a possible felony for tax evasion and fraud. The alleged crimes – which also included another possible felony charge for lying on a gun permit in 2018 – occurred during the time when Hunter Biden has described himself as a heavy user of crack cocaine.  Despite Ziegler and Shapley’s efforts, their investigation might have been buried if Hunter Biden had not failed to retrieve the laptop he left at a Wilmington, Delaware, repair shop in 2019. Although the FBI has admitted it took possession of the computer that same year and soon verified it belonged to Hunter Biden, its contents – which documented Joe’s connections to his son’s business affairs along with salacious photos – surfaced only in October 2020, after Trump adviser Rudy Guiliani gave the New York Post a copy of the hard drive he said he had received from the repair shop owner. In an echo of the pushback Ziegler and Shapley were experiencing, Biden supporters worked to discredit the laptop story. Contrary to the media circus, Ziegler knew the laptop was not, as Joe Biden would claim, a “Russian plant.”  “Yes, absolutely,” he told RCI in March from his home in Atlanta. His team was aware of the contents of the laptop but had made no hay from it; it was just another part of the investigation, which made the reaction to its discovery, including 51 former senior intelligence officials publishing a letter   “has all the classic earmarks of a Russian information operation,” seem especially bizarre. “Comparing that to the information we had on our end is, in hindsight, extremely disappointing,” he said. “But I guess at the time I just didn’t think about the politics of it.” By late 2020, Shapley had come to see nothing but the politics of it, including among fellow federal employees whose unwillingness to hold Hunter Biden accountable for his actions Shapley found disappointing, if unsurprising, the “yes man’s” way forward.  “These people were institutionalized by the federal government. They are only in those very high positions because they played this game to move up the ladder,” he said from his office in Baltimore. A ladder being held firmly in place by Team Biden. There was also something too clever by half in the higher-ups putting Shapley, who for years had received the agency’s highest recommendations, in charge of a case the IRS seemed to be doing its best to spike. “They knew I was the expert, and they knew that I knew more than them about working these types of cases, so they put me on the hot seat,” he said. “Then they stuck their head in the sand, and pretended that everything was going to be fine ... and [that] the problems you were moving into in 2020, 2021, and 2022 were just going to go away.” Meanwhile, the chances of any charges being filed against Hunter Biden were growing tenuous. Shapley was alert to this eventuality when he decided to take notes during an Oct. 7, 2022, meeting, where U.S. Attorney David Weiss, who was overseeing the case, stated he was “not the deciding person” on whether charges would be filed.  “He said that he had to go to the President Biden-appointed U.S. Attorneys to get approval and they said no,” recalled Shapley. Weiss, a Trump appointee, had been working on the Hunter Biden case since 2020. When Merrick Garland became attorney general in 2021, he allowed Weiss to continue the probe, in part to avoid the appearance of political interference. Then why, Shapley wondered, was Weiss more than a year later saying he didn’t have the authority? That Weiss later denied he’d ever said he didn’t have official approval did not wash with Shapley,   – which he’d shared contemporaneously with other attendees – specifically had Weiss saying he’d been told he was “not the deciding person on whether charges were filed.”  “My red line meeting was Oct. 7,” he said, and afterward, he “immediately started seeking a counsel to help me legally follow the legal path to blow the whistle.” Ziegler’s red line intersected with Shapley’s on May 15, 2023, when the agents learned Hunter Biden would be offered a deferred prosecution agreement, which meant he would not only not face felony charges; he would not be charged with anything at all. May 15 was also the day the agents learned they’d been removed from the Hunter Biden investigation in December 2022, but that no one had bothered to tell them. “Leaders within my organization, to hear they had removed us six months prior to actually removing us?” said Ziegler. “This was a huge slap in the face.” As for why they had been taken off the investigation, the men were told the IRS and DOJ had not known in December whether the case would move forward, and thus, the departments had not wanted to waste resources. “Which is a bunch of malarkey,” said Shapley, as was Hunter Biden being allowed to slip away from the charges he and Ziegler had worked hard to make stick.  To the agents, this was a betrayal on multiple levels. First, by colleagues inside the department and out (“They come to my house and with their wife and children, I know these people,” said Shapley, of DOJ tax prosecutors who “went behind my back to get me removed from the case”), second, to the jobs they had constitutionally pledged to carry out, and third, of the country’s taxpayers, in that it created a two-tiered system of justice, one for regular Americans, the other for a president’s son and anyone else the people at the top decided to protect.  “What kind of leaders remove an entire team from a high-profile case without telling them?” Shapley would later ask in a hearing before the House Ways & Means Committee.  *** Becoming the public faces of the Hunter Biden case, which included testifying before Congress and running the media gauntlet, meant the agents were in for new and different types of punishment. Explaining that the tax crimes Hunter Biden had committed, which Ziegler <a href="//efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https:/gop-waysandmeans.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Ziegler_FINAL-Full-Statement-to-House-Ways-and-Means-v12.01.2023.pdf" rel="nofollow">testified to in excruciating detail</a>, should be adjudicated as they would be for any other citizen was cast as batting against Team Blue. This would not do. In the run-up to another Trump/Biden face-off, the powers that be needed to vanquish (or at least humiliate) their perceived enemies, to turn the poison arrow away from their candidate and his kid.  “It was extremely important to Gary and me that we stay as bipartisan as we could possibly stay,” said Ziegler of their many appearances on network news shows. “And I think as much as we tried to do that effort, I think the left side of the media didn’t, in my opinion, do a good enough job... it was kind of like, ‘Anyone else but Trump, we have to protect!’”  “I remember [Congressman] Dan Goldman giving a press conference after an oversight committee, saying, ‘This is just a disagreement between investigators and prosecutors, and the prosecutors know what’s right,’” recalled Shapley. “‘The prosecutors are smart, the [IRS agents] are stupid,’ is essentially what he said. And I haven’t gotten a sorry yet from him.” Attacks also came from the right, as when Ziegler’s personal information was   who believed that Ziegler, being a Democrat and gay, was a secret liberal intent on stalling the Hunter Biden case. “I got a phone call right around Christmas time that said, ‘Hey, just so you know, your driver’s license is out there in the media. He has a whole bunch of pictures, photos of you and your partner.’” Ziegler paused. “He is now my ex-partner. So, that was another piece or element as a part of this investigation.”  The exposure and stress proved too much for the marriage. “I do think,” he said, “it played a role in essentially losing that relationship.” *** In a case this controversial, in a climate where tearing down the other side had become reflexive, things were bound to get messier. Hunter Biden’s plea deal – which had him pleading guilty to two misdemeanor tax charges for failing to pay taxes in 2017 and 2018, as well as a pretrial diversion program for a felony gun charge – collapsed in July 2023 when the judge raised concerns about the scope of immunity the deal. “When the judge literally struck down that plea, I cried,” said Ziegler. “I was like, finally, someone gets it.” The relief would not last. Hunter Biden sued the IRS that September, claiming the agency failed to protect his tax records. (As of this writing, the case remains ongoing.) In September 2024, Ziegler and Shapley sued Hunter Biden’s lawyer, 📄.pdf  to the chairman of the House Ways & Means Committee in June 2023, alleging the agents had improperly released tax information, and characterizing them as “self-styled IRS ‘whistleblowers’ who may be claiming that title in an attempt to evade their own misconduct [which] was an obvious ploy to feed the misinformation campaign to harm our client, Hunter Biden, as a vehicle to attack his father.” (Lowell’s request that the case against him be dismissed was denied.)  And the big one, which shocked just about no one: On Dec. 1, 2024, outgoing president Joe Biden granted a “full and unconditional pardon” to Hunter Biden for federal tax and gun convictions, as well as any other federal offenses he may have committed since Jan. 1, 2014. This, despite repeatedly having stated he would rule out a pardon for his son. (On the last day of his presidency, Biden further issued blanket pardons for six other family members.) The Hunter Biden pardon was seen, variously, as a display of fatherly devotion; a cynical way to bury Biden family tracks; a preemptive measure to keep Hunter Biden from the well-known vengefulness of the incoming president; and a giant waste of taxpayer dollars and attention. “The pardon was the biggest positive for the Republican Party and the biggest hit against the Democratic Party that could have possibly happened,” is how Shapley saw it. “The Democratic Party can no longer say, ‘We’re for the little guy, that we’ll hold rich people accountable, et cetera, et cetera.’ And the Republicans, they can always go back and say, ‘Well, the Democrat president lied to the American people and then pardoned his felon son.’” “Those pardons that were handed down at the last day of his presidency would’ve never happened if we didn’t do what we did,” said Ziegler. “You can try and discredit me as much as you want. But since day one, since we came forward, none of what I testified to changed. There was nothing where I had to come out and say, ‘Oh, yep, what I said there wasn’t accurate.’ We came out, we testified [before Congress], and then we gave them the receipts. Regardless of what anyone else says out there, we follow the law.” The U.S. Office of Special Counsel agreed when, in December 2024, it determined that Ziegler and Shapley had been retaliated against by the IRS, including their being improperly removed from the Hunter Biden investigation. Was the Trump administration playing tit-for-tat when they reinstated the agents, who, in 2026, will transition to senior leadership roles within the IRS? Almost assuredly, or at least in part. And yet that has no bearing on the fact that the two men stood firm when all around them others were willing not to; were willing to compromise – some of whom now are greeting Shapley and Ziegler as heroes.  “The rank and file agent here that has paid any intention, they know the burden that I assumed by doing the right thing, and they support me,” said Shapley. “One of them in particular said, ‘You guys did the right thing. You’re going to be teaching ethics classes in two years here.’”  Shapley estimated that “hundreds and hundreds of people” have come out in support. “But none,” he said, “have come out publicly.” Back home in Atlanta, Ziegler remains incredulous that anyone would think he did what he did for political reasons. “Why blow up your life, get a divorce, ruin your reputation? Why do all of this?” he asked. “To be honest with you, I want change. I want policy change. I want political change... If you’re Joe Biden, if you’re Hunter Biden, if you are a celebrity, if you are whoever, you are going to get treated the same exact way as someone else. I do feel there is a lot of preferential treatment with the Department of Justice, and specifically the IRS. And I think that we need to stop that.” As he starts his new job, he is still metabolizing what was done during the course of what should have been a routine investigation: the isolation, the subterfuge, and the slow roll, the people he’d assumed would be and by law should have been allies, instead treating him as expendable.  “There was just so much heartbreak that it became like a depression, became hard to get up and do my job. You just didn’t feel appreciated at all,” he said. “It’s kind of crazy because now that Donald Trump is president, things have kind of changed a little bit. I think some [colleagues] are working from a sense of fear within our agency; that Gary and I will get promoted to positions where we have some power, and the ability to create change in the IRS.” If it’s within the law, Ziegler says, that’s something his coworkers can count on.  “I knew what we were doing was right,” he said. “And looking back on everything, I would absolutely do it again.” Fri, 04/11/2025 - 13:25
"We Are Now A Global Destabilizer": Larry Fink Stunned By Trump Tariffs "We Are Now A Global Destabilizer": Larry Fink Stunned By Trump Tariffs Speaking after BlackRock's Q1 earnings report on a call with Wall Street analysts, CEO Larry Fink said he was troubled by the size of President Trump's tariff war with China.  "The sweeping US tariff announcements went beyond anything I could have imagined in my 49 years in finance," Fink told analysts.  As of Friday morning,  against President Trump's tariffs by hiking levies on U.S. goods to 125%, up from the prior 84%. The retaliation came a day after Trump hit China with an effective tariff rate of 145% as both the U.S. and China are locked in a heated, once-in-a-century trade war.  "This isn't Wall Street versus Main Street," Fink emphasized, adding, "The market downturn impacts millions of ordinary people's retirement savings." The good news: Two days earlier, Trump announced a of additional country-specific tariffs for countries that have refrained from taking retaliatory measures—an apparent attempt to isolate China and use tariffs to get Beijing to strike a trade deal.  "Yes, in the short run, we have an economy that is at risk," Fink said, but noted that artificial intelligence and rising infrastructure demand present "transformative investment opportunities." After the earnings call, Fink joined CNBC, where the globalist voiced even more concerns... BlackRock CEO Larry Fink is in full panic mode over Trump’s new tariffs, warning they’re shaking global markets and pushing the U.S. toward deeper economic trouble. He says the U.S. has gone from being a global stabilizer to a destabilizer under Trump’s leadership. Fink also… — Shadow of Ezra (@ShadowofEzra) Yet Trump’s trade war is fundamentally about reviving America’s hollowed-out manufacturing base. Naturally, reshaping global supply chains will come with disruptions. image To end the week, there are no indications that either China or the U.S. is willing to sit down and resolve trade disputes, while new evidence mounts that dislocations in global trade have begun to emerge: Separately, HSBC Head EM strategist Alastair Pinder and the legendary Matt King (formerly Citi's top strategist who correctly called the Lehman collapse) debated on  on Thursday night with warnings about the incoming economic fallout from the trade war...  image Continuing on the theme of global trade disruptions, Goldman analysts Dominic Wilson and Vickie Chang provided clients earlier with a note titled: Too Early for the "All Clear" that : image Substantial tariffs remain in place and the outcome even as it stands today looks considerably hawkish than was expected ahead of April 2. A simple thought experiment is to imagine that the current outcome—a 10% across the board tariff, a more than 100% China tariff, potential sectoral tariffs and large reciprocal tariffs to be implemented after a 90-day pause—had been announced. The implied roughly 15pp overall effective tariff rate increase would still have been a significant negative surprise to markets and its impact is still likely to be meaningful without further changes. While the pause to reciprocal tariffs reduces some key tail risks, policy uncertainty remains very high, and businesses and consumers are likely to continue to be wary of making long-term commitments when the path of policy going forward remains very unclear. Allocators are also likely to remain worried about the institutional and policy uncertainties that have led them to question their historic overweight in U.S. assets, while the recent price action has highlighted the risks both to longer-dated Treasury holdings and to the potential for simultaneous declines in U.S. equities and the USD that are especially painful for unhedged overseas investors. With some of the financial stress risk receding that often ultimately works to push the USD stronger (the left edge of the "dollar smile"), we think the case for ongoing USD weakness is intact, if not clearer. The turmoil has revealed some cracks in the ability of the market to function effectively in the face of these kinds of large shocks. Confidence that Treasuries will provide an effective "safe haven" in periods of extreme risk is likely to have been dented and the back end of the UST curve could remain fragile. What's clear is that global trade disruptions are emerging, and this risk suggests to Goldman analysts that it's still too early to give the "all clear" for markets.  As we were the first to warn this week - all eyes are on the Basis Trade blowing up (read ). Fri, 04/11/2025 - 10:45
China Escalates With 125% Tariff On US Imports, Signals Will "Ignore" Future Retaliation China Escalates With 125% Tariff On US Imports, Signals Will "Ignore" Future Retaliation Around the close of Hong Kong trading hours, Beijing retaliated against President Trump's tariffs by hiking levies on U.S. goods to 125%, up from the prior 84%. In a notable shift, the Chinese Communist Party announced it would "no longer respond" to any further tariff increases from Washington.  As the week concludes, the U.S. and China are locked in a heated, once-in-a-century trade war. Earlier, President Trump announced a 90-day suspension of additional country-specific tariffs for countries that have refrained from taking retaliatory measures—an apparent attempt to isolate China and use tariffs to get Beijing to strike a trade deal. The State Council Tariff Commission announced that China will raise tariffs on U.S. goods from 84% to 125% effective Saturday. The move comes in direct response to President Trump's effective tariff rate on Chinese imports, which now totals a whopping 145%. "Given that at the current tariff level, there is no market acceptance for U.S. goods exported to China. If the U.S. continues to impose tariffs on Chinese goods exported to the U.S., China will ignore it," the council said.  In a separate statement, the Commerce Ministry expressed, "Even if the U.S. continues to impose higher tariffs, it will no longer make economic sense and will become a joke in the history of the world economy." In what appears to mark a pause in the escalation of the bilateral tariff war, Beijing has shifted toward non-tariff retaliation—limiting . "This is the end of the escalation in terms of bilateral tariff rates. Both China and the U.S. have sent clear messages, there is no point of raising tariffs further," said Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, quoted by CNBC. Wall Street analysts have already trimmed sales estimates for Apple and Tesla in China, the world's second-largest economy. Meanwhile, speculation mounts that Beijing may have quietly reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds as part of its broader counteroffensive. Zhang noted that assessing the U.S. and China's economic fallout will be next. He emphasized there are no indications that either government is preparing to reenter negotiations. Meanwhile, early signs of supply chain disruptions have been reported: Goldman analysts Andrew Tilton, Hui Shan, and others lowered their China GDP forecasts because of the trade war: "We are revising our real GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 downward to 4.0% and 3.5%, respectively, from our previous projections of 4.5% and 4.0%."  image Tilton expects the Chinese government to ramp up easing support to offset tariff turmoil. image Despite a week of tit-for-tat trade wars, a spokesperson for China's commerce ministry reiterated that Beijing is open to negotiating with the U.S. image The question becomes how long China can weather the economic storm, given U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's comments earlier this week, calling the Chinese economy "the most imbalanced economy in the history of the modern world, and I can tell you that this escalation is a loser for them." Hence, the PBoC is easing.  China also reiterated that it would continue to "resolutely counter-attack and fight to the end" if the trade war deepened.  Fri, 04/11/2025 - 07:20
Bud Light Reclaims Top Spot As America's Favorite Beer Bud Light Reclaims Top Spot As America's Favorite Beer As Americans celebrated National Beer Day on April 7 – the anniversary of the Cullen-Harrison Act, which marked the end of Prohibition in the United States – what better way to honor this historic day than by delving deeper into the minds of   lovers and finding out what their favorite brews are?  is American again, as Bud Light re-claimed the top spot from Corona Extra - the leader in last year's edition of the same survey.    You will find more infographics at Corona, made in Mexico and exclusively imported, distributed and marketed by Constellation Brands in the U.S., came in second this year.  Dutch Heineken, a true global player in terms of beer, ranked fourth ahead American Budweiser and Blue Moon, a Belgian-style witbier brewed by Molson Coors in Colorado. Fri, 04/11/2025 - 06:55
US Geopolitical Chess: Strategies Against China, Russia, And Iran US Geopolitical Chess: Strategies Against China, Russia, And Iran As the United States brokers a cease-fire between Russia and Ukraine, the Trump administration’s unique strategies toward China, Russia, and Iran are becoming more apparent.  At the same time, the administration is redefining alliances while urging partners to step up their defense instead of depending on America’s traditional generosity. This multifaceted strategy aims to reshape the global order by isolating the three adversaries of the United States, with the ultimate goal of delivering a decisive blow to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). image Russia Strategy President Donald Trump is focused on quickly resolving the Russia–Ukraine conflict by providing Moscow with a way out while maintaining pressure on the CCP, which remains his main target. After taking office, he shifted U.S. policy toward Russia, incorporating a mix of incentives and some level of coercion, with a stronger emphasis on the former. This strategy has yielded positive results, initiating discussions for a cease-fire. On Jan. 22, just days into his presidency, Trump https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/113872782548137314 on his Truth Social platform: “I’m going to do Russia, whose Economy is failing, and President Putin, a very big FAVOR. Settle now, and STOP this ridiculous war! IT’S ONLY GOING TO GET WORSE. If we don’t make a ‘deal,’ and soon, I have no other choice but to put high levels of Taxes, Tariffs, and Sanctions on anything being sold by Russia to the United States, and various other participating countries. Let’s get this war, which never would have started if I were President, over with!”  The Kremlin responded swiftly. On Feb. 12, Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke by phone, agreeing to start negotiations right away to halt the conflict, breaking a diplomatic stalemate. On Feb. 18, the U.S. and Russian teams met in Saudi Arabia, resuming normal engagement and laying the groundwork for cease-fire discussions. By March 18, a second call between Trump and Putin focused on halting attacks on energy infrastructure. This initiated technical talks regarding a maritime cease-fire in the Black Sea, a broader truce, and a lasting peace deal. On March 25, the White House detailed separate U.S. meetings with Russia and Ukraine, securing safe Black Sea navigation and a mutual pledge to spare energy infrastructure. The United States also committed to aiding Russia’s agricultural and fertilizer exports while helping Ukraine recover detained civilians and children displaced by Russia. The next steps will likely address issues related to territorial borders, peacekeeping, sanctions relief, and security guarantees. As long as Moscow is cooperative, Trump will prefer to offer incentives. However, if Russia adopts a more rigid position, he is prepared to walk away, compelling the Kremlin to consider its alternatives—especially in light of potential betrayal by Beijing. Trump’s strategy focuses on creating a rift between Russia and China while simultaneously applying pressure on both nations. China Strategy Regarding the CCP, Trump employs a dual approach of intense pressure and selective engagement.  Tariffs lead the charge. Citing China’s failure to stem fentanyl flows into the United States, he imposed an additional 10 percent tariff on Chinese imports effective on March 4.  Moreover, during a meeting in Canada on March 14, issued a statement that hardened their position on the Chinese regime’s trade practices, military expansion, and regional tensions. Notably, the joint statement did not reference the “One China” policy, indicating support for Taiwan’s participation in global organizations. Washington likely influenced this shift. These actions rattled the CCP, yet Trump had sought to engage with Beijing. In December, the U.S. president invited CCP leader Xi Jinping to his inauguration; however, Xi declined the invitation and sent his deputy, Han Zheng, in his place. The https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-xi-may-visit-us-not-too-distant-future-trump-says-2025-03-17/  generated significant interest, but it appeared that the White House was merely trying to gauge reactions and test the waters. On March 22, Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) Beijing, where he discussed the issue of fentanyl with Vice Premier He Lifeng and suggested the possibility of future high-level talks. Later, Daines also met with Chinese Premier Li Qiang, who told the United States to opt for “dialogue” rather than “confrontation.” Yet Beijing’s actions suggest resistance. On March 24, it enacted an anti-foreign sanctions law, signaling defiance.  Washington acted quickly. The next day, the United States added 📄.pdf on all goods imported from those countries that purchase Venezuelan oil, essentially halting China’s purchases. Beijing remains resolute in its stance against the United States. A  of Panama Canal port rights to BlackRock on March 4 drew late criticism from Beijing, but this response came too late to be of any significance. Iran Strategy Trump has not overlooked Iran, especially following the country’s naval drills with China and Russia on March 9. The U.S. president sent a letter to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in early March, seeking to negotiate a deal to restrain Tehran’s rapidly advancing nuclear program. However, Khamenei direct negotiations with the United States over the issue, saying, “Some foreign governments and domineering figures insist on negotiations, while their goal is not to resolve issues but to exert control and impose their own agendas.” On March 15, as the trilateral exercise ended, U.S. forces .” Trump followed up with a social media post on March 17, vowing “https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114178483249053992 Iran halt supplies “immediately,” predicting the Houthis’s swift defeat. The strikes served a dual purpose: they sent a message to Beijing and Moscow. Following a meeting on March 14 in Beijing that involved representatives from China, Russia, and Iran discussing Tehran’s nuclear program, Trump’s escalation with the Houthis undermined Beijing’s mediation efforts. As U.S.–Russia–Ukraine discussions progressed in Saudi Arabia, it highlighted Trump’s willingness to pivot against Moscow if necessary. Trump is playing a different game with China, Russia, and Iran to divide them, aiming to hit the CCP the hardest. The Bigger Picture In a chaotic, uncertain world, Trump effectively utilizes every available resource. The United States must bring all its resources together to confront the CCP. The sooner America’s allies and partners understand this strategy and offer their support, the faster the CCP will weaken and potentially collapse. Once the CCP falls, Russia will lack the means to sustain its war efforts, Iran will find itself without a backer, and terrorist organizations will struggle to survive. Only then can global stability be restored, the international order reestablished, and nations begin to enjoy a peaceful existence. Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge. Thu, 04/10/2025 - 23:25
Most Americans Now Have Negative View Of Israel - Under-50 GOP Support Craters Most Americans Now Have Negative View Of Israel - Under-50 GOP Support Craters While the Trump administration earnestly redistributes billions of dollars of American wealth to Israel, that country's immensely-destructive war in Gaza appears to be taking a growing toll on its support among Americans. According to the latest Pew Research survey, a majority of Americans now have an unfavorable view of Israel. In a finding that will cause the greatest alarm in Israeli government offices and at US-based pro-Israel organizations, there's now a huge generational divide within the GOP ranks.  53% of Americans now have an unfavorable view of Israel, thanks to the share of Americans with dim views of Israel surging by 11 points in three years. The comparison point is Pew's survey in March 2022, seven months before the Oct 7 Hamas invasion of southern Israel sparked a massive military response that's killed more than 50,000 Palestinians -- about a third of them under 18 -- according to health officials in Gaza. Over the same span, image Extending back several years, support for Israel had started to sharply polarize along major-party lines, with Democrats' affinity for Israel plummeting while GOP support held relatively steady. In the 's most striking statistic of all, disdain for the State of Israel among Republicans under age 50 has soared 15 points in three years, which could signal that support for Israel is poised for a bipartisan decline for years to come. Among Republicans and Republican leaners age 50 and older, unfavorable views of Israel crept up just four points since 2022, from 19% to 23%. Among the under-50 GOP set, it rose from 35% to 50%.  Democrats' low views of Israel also surged higher over the three-year interval: 69% have an unfavorable view in 2025, up 16 points from 2022. On that side of party divide, age is much less of a factor: 66% of age-50+ Dems have a negative view of Israel, compared to 71% for those 18 to 49.   Pew also found interesting distinctions among views held by Americans as divided by religious affiliations. One of the key pillars of Israeli political influence inside the United States is white evangelical protestants, and 72% of them accordingly view Israel favorably today. Non-evangelical protestants are net-negative on Israel by a small 50% to 47% margin, while Catholics take a dim view of Israel by a more substantial 53% to 43% spread. 73% of Jews are favorable, but a quite-substantial 27% give a thumbs-down to the self-declared "Jewish state."  image Pew's survey didn't probe the factors driving rising negative views of Israel, but it's safe to say the major shift springs from Israel's conduct of the war in Gaza. Beyond the war per se, the exposure of that war's horrors on social media platforms has also been decisive in our view, with Americans having access to raw portrayals of the bloodshed and suffering, including reporting from alternative and foreign media outlets that shines a light on the high civilian death toll, destruction of hospitals, mass-displacement from homes, hunger and disease.  An IDF soldier laughs and smashes up a shop in Jabalia refugee camp. The store will have been someone’s pride and joy, and a source of livelihood. Such brutal cruelty without a second thought — carried out with pride and a camera. — Philip Proudfoot (@PhilipProudfoot) Ironically, many of the most damning social-media glimpses into the Israeli Defense Forces' conduct of the war have come from IDF soldiers themselves, who've shared photos and videos of themselves .    That's not to say mainstream media hasn't also played a role in Israel's surging unpopularity in the United States. One of the most unsettling reports of the war was aired by CBS Sunday Morning, which featured the accounts of American doctors who'd volunteered in Gaza and .   And of course IDF 'soldiers' wearing the underwear of (probably dead) Palestinian women doesn't look revoltingly gross at all... — The Prole Star (@TheProleStar) As for younger Republicans, whether or not they have empathy for Palestinian civilians, many under-50 GOP voters no doubt see America's open-checkbook support for Israel as inconsistent with the "America First" philosophy that's supposed to underpin Trumpian Republicanism. In a move last month that surely aggravated them, fresh after amusingly humiliating Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky en route to ending the money-pit that is the proxy war against Russia, in military aid to Israel.  As today's under-50 crowd proceeds to dominates the Republican electorate, those moves could start to become a political liability for GOP officials who've been conditioned to expect Red-Team praise for sending US wealth, weapons and soldiers to the Middle East to advance Israel's agenda. If rank-and-file Republicans increasingly embrace   that make the United States "a slave to its fondness," a seismic shift in the 77-year US-Israel relationship could be in the offing.      Thu, 04/10/2025 - 23:00
White House Official Says More Than 15 Countries Have Made Trade Deal Offers White House Official Says More Than 15 Countries Have Made Trade Deal Offers A senior White House trade official said that more than 15 countries made trade deal offers to the Trump administration after reciprocal tariffs were announced last week, and before President Donald Trump paused the duties on Wednesday. image National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett told reporters at the White House on Thursday that the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative “has informed us that there are maybe 15 countries now that have made explicit offers that we’re studying and considering and deciding whether they’re good enough to present [to] the president.” In an interview with CNBC, Hassett on Thursday , “We’ve got a few deals that we’ve been working on ahead of this that are really, really well advanced.” In to Fox News, he said that the 90-day pause announced by Trump was part of the president’s plan all along. Trump said on Wednesday that he paused the reciprocal tariffs for 90 days on every country except China—which now faces a total tariff rate of on all goods—to give U.S. trading partners, who contacted the White House to negotiate, space to reach agreements.  A baseline 10 percent tariff on all countries remains in effect, White House officials later said. Hassett on Thursday that the 10 percent tariff will remain in effect as part of trade talks. “It is going to take some kind of extraordinary deal for the president to go below” the baseline, he said. Elaborating on why Trump acted when he did, Hassett told Fox News that the president may have been influenced by a recent increase in U.S. government bond yields. “Everything was moving, but then when the bond market started to say, ‘Hey, we don’t believe these guys,’ I think the president decided on his own really, that, well, we’re gonna announce this anyway, we might as well do it today,” he said.  “There’s a little bit of an extra push for the bond market.” Trump on Wednesday indicated that investor concerns played a role in his decision to announce the pause earlier that day. “I thought that people were jumping a little bit out of line,” the president said during remarks at the White House. “They were getting a little bit yippy, a little bit afraid.” Trump’s tariffs pause on Wednesday, which came hours after the new tariffs kicked in for many trading partners, followed an intense episode of financial market volatility not seen in years. After the decision, the Dow Jones Industrial Average shot up by 2,900 points, while both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 posted similarly high gains. As of Thursday morning, all three major U.S. stock indexes saw declines. The European Union’s executive commission said on Thursday that it will put its retaliatory measures against new U.S. tariffs on hold for 90 days to match Trump’s pause and to leave room for a negotiated solution. New tariffs on 20.9 billion euros ($23 billion) of U.S. goods entering the EU will be put on hold for 90 days because “we want to give negotiations a chance,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in a statement. Thu, 04/10/2025 - 13:40
Stellar 30Y Auction: 2nd Highest Direct Award, 3rd Biggest Stop-Through On Record Stellar 30Y Auction: 2nd Highest Direct Award, 3rd Biggest Stop-Through On Record After this week started with a dismal 3Y auction and a solid 10Y auction yesterday, both of which however saw a collapse in the Direct bid, many - certainly we... 30Y auction in an hour: Directs were 22.7% in March. How low will they drop today? (over/under 3%) — zerohedge (@zerohedge) ... were dreading to see what the Direct award would be in today's auction. We get the result moments ago when the Treasury sold a $22 billion reopening of the February 30Y in the form of a 29 Year, 10 Month reopening. The results were stellar across the board! The high yield was 4.813%, up sharply from 4.623% last month and the highest since January. But more importantly, while many were expecting the auction to tail, instead we got a massive 2.6bps stop through the When Issued 4.839. This, as shown below, was the highest stop through since Nov 2022 and the third highest on record! image Looking at the bid to cover, no big surprises there: at 2.435, it was above last month's 2.366 but just below the recent average 2.47%. But it was the internals that were the big story again: while Indirects were awarded 61.88%, or roughly the same as last month's 60.45%, below the recent average 67.0%, and hardly an upside outlier like yesterday's record Indirect award to the 10Y auction, it was the Directs that everyone was looking at again because as we noted earlier today, the Basis Trade is blowing out again. Basis trade resumes rapid unwind — zerohedge (@zerohedge) Only this time, this did not manifest itself in a collapse in the Direct award, on the contrary. As shown in the chart below after plunging Direct takedowns in the 3Y and 10Y auctions, today's 30Y auction saw a surge in the Direct award to 25.8%, up from 22.7% and the 2nd highest on record! image The market reaction was curious: while yields dropped modestly amid relief there was not major challenges to digesting the sale of long-dated paper, stocks plunged, with spoos tumbling from 5300 to below 5200 in minutes, in what appears to have been disappointment that yields arent going to blow out and force the Fed to step in and bailout the market sooner! Then again, since the Fed continues to allow the unwind of the basis trade (just look at the ongoing collapse in the swap spreads) we are confident that stocks will have more than enough opportunities to blow up the bond market and force Powell to finally panic. Thu, 04/10/2025 - 13:37
Novavax Shares Crash After RFK Jr. Comments Novavax Shares Crash After RFK Jr. Comments  Robert F. Kennedy Jr., in his first national TV appearance as Health and Human Services Secretary under the Trump administration, questioned the effectiveness of Novavax's Covid vaccine during an interview with CBS News' chief medical correspondent, Dr. Jon LaPook. The interview, which cast doubt on the shot, sent shares of the Maryland-based biotech firm crashing on Thursday. image RFK Jr. told LaPook that Novavax's shot targets just one piece of the virus, an approach he said has "never worked" for respiratory illnesses: We're looking at that vaccine, and it is a single-antigen vaccine. And, for respiratory illnesses, the single-antigen vaccines have never worked and we're actually shifting our priorities to multiple-antigen vaccines. And NIH is already working on a number of those. RFK Jr.'s comments sent Novavax shares into a tailspin, plunging 24% during late-morning trading in New York. The stock has already suffered steep losses in recent years, falling back to pre-pandemic lows after the pandemic ended. image "Novavax's shot is already on the market under a conditional approval. It's awaiting from the Food and Drug Administration a full approval that was expected April 1," noted. In recent weeks, Wall Street analysts have raised concerns about Peter Marks' abrupt resignation. Marks was a top FDA regulator and pro-vaxxer.  Analysts—including BMO Capital Markets' Evan David Seigerman—viewed Marks' departure as a "significant negative" for the biotech and biopharma sectors.  The share of SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) is down about 34% since Trump won the presidential election and Wall Street's fear that RFK Jr. would push through major reforms at HHS that would hurt the vaccine industrial industry image .  .  .  Thu, 04/10/2025 - 13:20