Gold Price Hike Sparks Surge In Electronic Metal Detecting Gold Price Hike Sparks Surge In Electronic Metal Detecting Joe Marihugh caught the gold bug years ago while running buckets of sand through a washer to extract flakes of the precious yellow metal. He and his wife once ran 50 buckets to retrieve two grams of gold, which was worth nearly $200 at the time. Since then, he has been using his dependable Minelab Gold Monster 1000 metal detector, with high expectations and his eyes fixed on the ground. “I love searching for gold. It’s what we do,” Marihugh said as he swept the metal detector’s search coil across the hard, dry soil south of Tucson, Arizona, hoping to discover something valuable beneath the surface. image On March 22, Marihugh and more than 20 members of the set out to make profitable discoveries during the club’s annual spring outing for metal detecting. Like forensic investigators searching for evidence, the metal detectorists worked with focused determination in a close formation under the bright morning desert sun. “There are people out here that do find gold nuggets,” said club president Ralph Montano. “I tell everybody: you’re not going to get rich” metal detecting, but, “you might get lucky.” It’s not just the thrill of the hunt that draws metal detector enthusiasts, like the Desert Gold Diggers, to remote locations in search of hidden treasure. It’s the attraction of discovering precious metals following gold’s recent surge to more than $3,000 an ounce—marking the first time in U.S. history. At the same time, silver continues rising and is more than $34 an ounce. Montano told The Epoch Times that it’s not merely by chance that the club has been receiving more inquiries from individuals interested in metal detecting. image Desert Gold Diggers President Ralph Montano coordinates the metal club's annual spring outing near Tucson, Ariz., on March 22, 2025. Allan Stein/The Epoch Times There seems to be a direct connection between gold prices and interest in the hobby. “We’ve gotten a lot of interest lately. In the last couple of months, we’ve gotten a lot of new members,” Montano said. “They’re coming out and learning from us about what equipment they will need and what to look for—how to look for the spots that might produce.” Not since gold reached an all-time high of $1,896 and silver hit $49.52 per ounce in 2011 have precious metals—often considered “barbarous relics” in the financial world—commanded such prices. A Global Run On Gold According to investment consultant https://www.troweprice.com/en/us/insights/what-is-driving-gold-prices-to-all-time-record-highs , there are several factors causing the price of gold and silver to breach the $3,000 high-water mark. Since late 2022, the company observed that the long-standing inverse relationship between gold prices and real interest rates had become disconnected from the U.S. dollar and stock market. “This reflects the growing influence of global fiscal policies and currency debasement, a sharp rise in central bank buying, as well as an environment of heightened geopolitical risks,” T. Rowe Price noted. “Geopolitical risks only seem to be growing. Wars rage in the Middle East and Ukraine. Conflicts between China and its neighbors are a looming threat. “The coalition of countries hostile to the West will continue to look for ways to decrease dependency on the [U.S. Dollar] as a reserve currency and medium for international exchange.” Gold.org that gold reached more than 40 new highs in 2024, with an additional 14 highs so far this year. This significant upward movement is considered “no coincidence,” according to the analyst, who indicated that a potential “perfect storm” is forming for the yellow metal. “The focus isn’t just the number itself but the pace at which gold has reached it. The jump from U.S. $2,500 [per ounce] to $3,000 took just 210 days—a notably faster move that underscores the momentum gold has built over the past two years.” image Joe Marihugh, from Tucson, Arizona, displays a vial containing roughly 1 gram of gold flakes he extracted from buckets of sand through a washer, on March 22, 2025. Allan Stein/The Epoch Times While the demand for retail gold and silver remains high, more adventurous individuals are discovering the potential riches of metal detecting. “All detectorists have dreamt of making that one great find at some point,” noted the Massachusetts-based metal detector seller . “The most common items found are usually older coins, gold or silver coins, gold nuggets, Roman coin treasures, medieval coins, ferrous metals, Civil War buttons, and other buried treasure or gold objects.” Another Gold Rush? Ron Shore, the owner of https://www.windycitymetaldetectors.com/ in Chicago, has noticed a definite increase in metal detector sales since the price of gold surpassed $3,000 per ounce on March 14. However, this recent “bump” in purchases is not nearly as substantial as the high volume of metal detectors he sold during the “gold rush” of the 1980s. The company was established in 1985. In January 1980, gold first reached a price of $850 per ounce, marking a historic milestone. Shore said that his customers are now seeking an economical way that will “help them find gold” as the price of precious metals trends higher. “There’s a few people that know the cost of gold is up. They want to get into the hobby because of that,” he said. “But it’s not even close to what it was in the 80s. I mean, there was literally a gold rush on. I had cars pulling up [outside the store.] I couldn’t get gold detectors in the cars [fast enough]—that’s literally how many were being sold.” Shore said he hadn’t seen anything like it since he began metal detecting in the 1970s. However, this could change if the value of gold continues to rise, and indications suggest that it will, he added. In addition to metal detecting, panning for gold remains a popular activity for those interested in traditional prospecting methods, according to precious metals advisor GMR Gold. image Members of the Desert Gold Diggers metal detecting club fan out as they search for buried treasure south of Tucson, Ariz., on March 22, 2025. Allan Stein/The Epoch Times There are several methods for gold prospecting. The traditional technique of gold panning can be enhanced by using a Rocker Box, also known as a cradle. This tool is more efficient than simple panning, as it consists of a wooden box with a sieve and a rocking mechanism. Another method is the sluice box, which features a long trough designed to capture gold particles while directing water and sediment through it. In areas with scarce water, dry panning is an efficient method that relies on air instead of water to separate gold from the sediment. “Many enthusiasts enjoy the thrill of panning for gold in rivers and streams, reliving the experiences of the early prospectors,” GMR Gold on its blog. “The history of gold panning is a testament to human ingenuity, perseverance, and the enduring allure of gold.” Steve Moore, the marketing director of Texas-based electronic metal detector manufacturer , concurred that the rising price of gold has increased interest in electronic gold prospecting. Moore said that Garrett, a privately held business, could not speculate on the actual increase in sales volume. Nonetheless, “we expect to see nice increases this year in our prospecting detector sales,” he said. “Garrett will certainly expect additional sales in 2025 of our best prospecting detectors"—the Goldmaster 24k, specifically made for gold nugget hunting, and the Axiom, Moore told The Epoch Times. Moore said that there is still subsurface gold to be found in many regions, including Australia, the Yukon, Arizona, California, and Nevada. “One of the keys to finding gold is having a gold-producing region, which requires some research,” he said. “Then they must gain access to a claim where they can properly search.” image A member of the Desert Gold Diggers metal detecting club searches for buried objects during the club's yearly outing near Tucson, Ariz., on March 22, 2025. Allan Stein/The Epoch Times Marihugh credited his uncle with sparking his interest in gold prospecting during his youth. In 2010, the Gold Rush series premiered on the Discovery Channel, and from that moment, Marihugh said he was hooked. “We’ve just been finding gold ever since. I’ve got ounces that I’ve found over the years.” To illustrate, he presented a vial containing approximately a gram of gold flakes he recently discovered. Other detectorists search parks where they may find lost rings and valuable objects, he said. Gold Side-Hustle “It’s out there—it’s still out there,” Marihugh said. “People lose rings. The kids lose necklaces.” As gold prices continue to rise, he said: “It’s going to draw more and more people” to metal detecting as a money-making hobby or pastime. “Ever since gold hit over $2,200, people have been getting out there more and more. I hope it keeps going up,” he said. Montano said that Desert Gold Diggers formed about 35 years ago, and currently maintains 19 claims for members to search for buried treasure. “I’m still learning since I started like six years ago” using an entry-level Garrett 250, he said. Jose Lizarraga, a club member from Tucson, has been metal detecting for the past two years and used a Monster 1000 at the outing. He believes it was his “beginner’s luck” to discover a gold nugget during another metal-detecting adventure. “And so what I did is last year for our anniversary, I made it into a necklace,” Lizarraga told The Epoch Times. “That was my anniversary present for my wife. She loves it.” image Jose Lizarraga, a member of the Desert Gold Diggers metal detecting club, stands with his Minelab Gold Monster 1000 near Tucson, Ariz., on March 22, 2025. Allan Stein/The Epoch Times Bob Burgette, 62, who hails from Wisconsin, began gold prospecting and metal detecting in his youth. He currently has six Minelab metal detectors to search for various types of metal objects. “I had a couple sisters that lived out here, so I came out and visited and I got hooked on looking for gold,” Burgette told The Epoch Times. “They were more into arrowheads, but I used the same amount of time to go out and prospect in washes.” One of his best discoveries was an 1886 Seated Liberty silver dime, which he found about a foot deep in the ground. image Bob Burgette, 62, holds up the 1937 Indian Head nickel he found with his Minelab metal detector during the annual Desert Gold Diggers spring club outing, near Tucson, Ariz., on March 22, 2025. Allan Stein/The Epoch Times During the club outing, he uncovered a 1937 Indian Head nickel in good condition. NGC Coin, an independent coin grading service, estimates that these nickels can sell for between 50 cents and $20, depending on their condition. Nickels with mint defects may fetch much higher prices. Over time, such finds can offset the cost of a metal detector, said Burgette, who paid $399 for the Minelab machine he used on March 22. “I’ve been all the way over to California and Oregon looking for gold. I found a nice big hefty 3-gram nugget [panning] over there,” he said. “And when you see something like that, it just shines in your pan, you know—when the sun hits it. So it just gives you that gold fever.” Sun, 04/06/2025 - 22:10
USDA Cites Wildfire Risk, Invasive Insects In Orders To Expand Logging In National Forests USDA Cites Wildfire Risk, Invasive Insects In Orders To Expand Logging In National Forests (emphasis ours), The Department of Agriculture (USDA) issued a memo on Friday allowing the use of more than 112 million acres of national forests for logging to increase timber production and reduce wildfire risk. image In the 📄.pdf dated April 3, USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins declared these forests—making up 59 percent of national forests—to be in an emergency situation due to their high risk of wildfires and hazardous tree conditions. The memo was released on April 4. Rollins stated that the national forests are in crisis due to “uncharacteristically severe wildfires, insect and disease outbreaks, invasive species, and other stressors.” Those threats—combined with overgrown forests, the growing number of homes in the wildland-urban interface, and decades of rigorous fire suppression—have contributed to a “full-blown wildfire” and “forest health crisis,” according to the memo. “Healthy forests require work, and right now, we’re facing a national forest emergency,” Rollins said in a https://www.usda.gov/about-usda/news/press-releases/2025/04/04/secretary-rollins-announces-sweeping-reforms-protect-national-forests-and-boost-domestic-timber . “We have an abundance of timber at high risk of wildfires in our National Forests.” The emergency designation would allow the Forest Service to expedite approval for logging activity in the designated forests, bypassing the usual processes required under national environmental laws. The memo directs Forest Service personnel to increase timber production by 25 percent over the next four to five years, while also meeting the minimum requirements of the National Environmental Policy Act and other environmental laws. In a 📄.pdf to Forest Service regional foresters, acting associate chief Christopher French said he will direct regulatory authorities to streamline approval processes for timber production in the designated forests. French called on regional foresters “to the maximum extent practicable, use existing and new categorical exclusions for timber stand improvement, salvage, and other site preparation activities for reforestation, consistent with applicable law.” Environmental group Earthjustice has rejected the USDA’s emergency designation. “This absurdly vast, and poorly justified, emergency determination aims to boost logging and reduce environmental safeguards across most national forestlands in a handout to the logging industry,” Earthjustice legislative representative Blaine Miller-McFeeley said in a https://earthjustice.org/press/2025/earthjustice-responds-to-emergency-forests-directive-that-lays-groundwork-for-widespread-industrial-logging . Miller-McFeeley said that cutting down trees that currently serve as “important buffers against climate change” will not help to reduce the threat of wildfires, and that it could cause “significant harm” to forest ecosystems and negatively impact the outdoor recreation economy. The memo follows President Donald Trump’s directed the commerce secretary to investigate the national security implications of timber imports. Trump stated that the country’s abundance of timber resources is “more than adequate” to meet domestic needs, but that “heavy-handed Federal policies have prevented full utilization of these resources” and caused it to rely on imported lumber. “It is vital that we reverse these policies and increase domestic timber production to protect our national and economic security,” Trump stated in his order issued on March 1. His second order states that the United States’ softwood lumber industry has the practical production capacity to meet 95 percent of its softwood consumption last year. Despite this capacity, the country has been a net importer of lumber since 2016, it stated. The Forest Service has sold about 3 billion board feet of timber annually for the past decade. Timber sales peaked several decades ago at about 12 billion board feet amid widespread clear-cutting of forests. Volumes dropped sharply in the 1980s and 1990s as environmental protections were tightened and more areas were put off limits to logging. Most timber is harvested from private lands. Steven Kovac and The Associated Press contributed to this report. Sun, 04/06/2025 - 21:00
Dems "Openly Defending" Hiring Illegal Immigrants After Wash. ICE Raid Dems "Openly Defending" Hiring Illegal Immigrants After Wash. ICE Raid ICE raided Mount Baker Roofing in Bellingham, Washington this week as part of an “ongoing criminal investigation into the unlawful employment of aliens without legal work authorization”, .  The agency reported arresting 37 illegal immigrants “who had fraudulently represented their immigration status and submitted fraudulent documents and/or information to seek employment.” Rantz this week writes to point out that Democrats are simply "openly defending businesses hiring illegal immigrants".  ICE described its investigation as targeting “worksite violations and/or the exploitation of workers”—a goal Democrats usually support, unless it involves illegal immigrants. image The Washington State Senate Members of Color Caucus (MOCC) condemned the raid, claiming it harms business. “Businesses also face significant challenges, including labor shortages, operational disruptions, and uncertainty in their ability to provide goods and services,” they stated. Rantz that Washington Democrats appear more concerned about businesses allegedly hiring illegal workers than about the violations themselves. They've even funneled millions into helping illegal immigrants avoid deportation and continue working unlawfully. Illegal workers are often exploited, but Washington Democrats seem fine with that—as long as they can use them to posture as champions of the marginalized. Even if the arrests had involved violent criminals, their outrage would still be directed at ICE, not the lawbreakers. Roofing isn't one of those jobs Democrats claim Americans refuse to do, so why defend illegal employment? Is it just about securing cheap labor while locals face a 4.9% unemployment rate in Bellingham? If you're questioning their priorities, the MOCC's statement says it all—and not in a flattering way, Rantz concludes. Sun, 04/06/2025 - 20:30
Trump 2.0: Back To Basics Trump 2.0: Back To Basics By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities Trump 2.0 – Back to Basics After a tumultuous week in stocks (Nasdaq 100 down 10%, the S&P 500 down 9%, and the Russell 2000 down somewhere in between), it seems like a good time to get back to basics. Though it hasn’t just been a bad week – the Nasdaq 100 is down almost 15% in the past month and 17% year-to-date. Credit spreads were also starting to show signs of wear and tear – the Bloomberg Corporate bond OAS went from 93 to 109 and CDX IG went from 61 to 72. Not alarming, but worth watching. The high yield market, which has been so resilient, also experienced some weakness, with CDX HY rising 100 bps, to 439 since March 25th. Treasuries performed very well, with the 10-year dropping 25 bps to close out the week at under 4%! Though Treasuries did fade off of the best levels of the day when Powell made it clear that he is watching inflationary impacts from tariffs, as well as watching the jobs data (which was surprisingly solid). Bitcoin was the standout, as it defied recent correlations on Friday and acted as a “safe haven.” My best guess on this, or at least what I’m thinking, is that the tariff policy demonstrated that this administration will stick to their guns, and one of their guns has been to buy crypto to pay off the debt. But let’s move on to the basics – the Mission Statement and Tariff Basics. The Mission Statement We have been discussing what we see as this administration’s “mission” for months. Whether you want to call it a mission statement, desired legacy, or what they were elected to do, I think this sums it up quite well: Rebuild the American Middle Class. Create a larger, more successful middle class than we have seen in a long time, if not ever. Great goal! Bring back jobs to America. This is front and center for the strategy. Jobs of all types should be created by various mechanisms. Drill Baby Drill is just one example. We have expected that to expand more broadly into What is Good For National Security Must Be Produced Domestically. I did think that for many of the things, “domestically” would include close allies, but I think it is now purely domestic. From chips to natural resources of all types, not just the extraction of those natural resources, but also the processing. Reduce the deficit. Deficit reduction is one of the key elements of building a greater than ever middle class. Reduced spending, increased revenue from foreign sources, lower interest rates, etc., all play into reducing the deficit. Which in turn will lower the tax burden on individuals. I think that accurately reflects the main mission of this administration and two major elements of what they will work towards to achieve it. Fully on board with this mission but let’s for a moment assume the global economy is a zero-sum game. In game theory, it is usually safe to assume that a “zero-sum game” should be “win-win” (not impossible to achieve) and “lose-lose” should largely be avoided. So, in a zero-sum game, if the American Middle Class is to grow and get richer, it benefits the existing middle class and should reach down and help lower income families the most. I don’t think anyone can argue with that.  Well, where will the income/wealth distribution come from? People in other countries. Clearly the strategy of this administration revolves around the concept that much of the world has been taking advantage of the U.S. for decades. The policies are meant to shift resources/money/jobs from those countries to the U.S. So, one source of transfer will be from outside the U.S. Foreign companies, when importing something to the U.S. to sell, will have to pay the tariffs, yet another way to transfer money from overseas to the U.S., in a way that should hurt the stock prices of those companies. Presumably, other countries will do what they can to mitigate such wealth transfer. Redistribution within the U.S. The other potential is to transfer wealth within the country. That leaves the wealthy and corporations as pockets of wealth to be redistributed. It would seem at odds with the overall objective of the government to directly take the money (via taxes) from the wealthy (though chatter about taxes for those making above $1 million has emerged). That leaves corporations as the main domestic source. It is unlikely to be through “income taxes,” but it is likely to come down to lower profit margins initially. Whether paying more for workers, more for goods, or paying tariffs, one wealth source will be the transfer of wealth from corporations to the burgeoning middle class. That will likely hit stock prices (it already has, and there are a lot of reasons to think that it will continue), which indirectly transfers wealth from the wealthy. As Chamath Palihapitiya (@chamath on X) points out in a tweet this weekend – the top 10% of households own 88% of the total equities owned by U.S. households. The bottom 50% have virtually no interest in U.S. stocks. Given his success on the investing side, with his All-In podcast, and involvement with this administration, I would take the tweet quite seriously. It would argue, quite strongly, that there is no Trump Put. Which makes perfect sense as the administration if fully on board with the policies. Clearly there is the belief that the brunt of the wealth transfer will come from foreigners, but as investors, we should be aware that some can come from corporations. If the government plans work, that will change over time, as presumably the improving middle class in the U.S. is great for U.S. stock valuations. Also, U.S. domiciled corporations, doing a lot of business in the U.S., have less ability to avoid government actions than (potentially) foreigners have. I think it is perfectly rational to believe in the mission, and to believe that the policies will be successful, and at the same time still be nervous about corporate earnings and valuations. We won’t delve into all the policies enacted (and likely to be enacted) to achieve this mission, as it would be too long, and be total guesswork, relative to what we know now about tariffs. Tariff Basics We went into a lot of detail on what we considered in early February. In our Bottom Line in that report, we published “At the moment, I’m not that worried” and went on to discuss our lack of concern about tariffs, as we understood them back then. Our view changed on that back in the middle of February as we evaluated the policies as implemented. Leading up to this week, we were already nervous about the combination of geopolitical policies alongside tariffs but were still, quite frankly, shocked by the tariff policy launched in the Rose Garden this week. As of Friday afternoon, we backed off being negative on U.S. stocks for a trade (see ). What does the administration expect tariffs to deliver? Revenue. The administration clearly states that tariff revenue will be a primary source of reducing the deficit and tax burdens (in line with their mission). Reviving Manufacturing in America. It is also expected that more will be produced in this country. That U.S. companies will produce more domestically to sell into the U.S., thus avoiding tariffs. Presumably, there is an expectation that facing lower tariffs from other countries (once we reach that stage) will create more sales of things already made in America in other countries. Since it will take time to build up manufacturing capacity in the U.S. (there is some excess capacity, but nothing on the scale that is envisioned by the administration), presumably the initial benefit will be the income from tariffs, and over time that income will dissipate as manufacturing shifts here (the two goals are somewhat mutually exclusive – either import and get the tariff revenue but not the jobs, or build here and get the jobs, but not the tariff revenue). But in an ideal world, the tariffs pay for a lot up front as the U.S. builds the manufacturing base, creating jobs during the buildout and even more jobs down the road, which will replenish any revenue gap from no longer receiving the tariffs. QED. But only if it was that simple. It seems, logically, if it was that simple, someone would have tried it already, successfully. That terms like “comparative advantage” would have dropped out of our language due to lack of use. So, let’s examine some of the risks. Country A produces a widget that they sell for the equivalent of $100 to a U.S. importer. The U.S. now imposes a 30% tariff on that country/product combination. That is about as basic as it gets. As described in more detail in the February report on tariffs, 4 things can happen and in all likelihood, some combination of the 4 occurs. Currency moves offset some of the tariffs. That was always somewhat tenuous and applied best to inventories already created. But back in February DXY (a dollar-based index) was at almost 110, up from 100 in early September. Now, it has fallen back to 102, so the tariff cannot be offset by currency moves (at least not yet). The exporter can reduce their price. If the exporter reduces their price by 23%, then a 30% tariff on $77 gets us back to a price of $100. In this case the exporter loses, the importer is indifferent (its total cost is the same), and the U.S. government makes $23. The ideal outcome for the U.S. Prices don’t rise, and all of the pain is extracted from the foreign entity. How likely is this? If this was the most likely outcome, we’d be off to the races and I’d be pounding the table to buy stocks, but there are many factors that make this outcome unlikely (some of the cost will be taken on by the exporter, but probably not all). Specialty products. Many things are very specialized and have relatively few sources. The more specialized a product is, the more likely the exporter will not “eat” the tariffs. The longer it would take to find an alternative supplier (which could be measured in years), the less likely they are to bear the brunt of the tariffs. Comparative advantage. Presumably, there is a reason the importer was buying this product for $100 from this exporter. The combination of quality, reliability, and price likely made this the best source. If there is a similar company making this for $110, then the supplier probably has to reduce their price, to keep the net cost to the importer around $110 (could be a bit higher than that - does the importer really want to open up with a new supplier?). If the next equivalent supplier is $131, why would the exporter cut their price at all? If it is something that can be manufactured elsewhere at below $130, they have to be concerned (maybe no one bothered making it at $115 because it was uneconomic, but now it wouldn’t be uneconomic, so new supply comes on to the market over time). Many companies took the “anti-China” signal seriously. Many companies have already shifted manufacturing outside of China reading the tea leaves of Trump 1.0, even Biden to some extent, and Trump 2.0. But it wasn’t just China that was tariffed. The likelihood that the $110 producer will also get tariffed, as of the time of this report, is high. Therefore, the $110 item might have a net cost of $130 or higher (depending on the tariff rate listed in the Rose Garden), making substitution more difficult. If you planned for a tariff war, with China as the main enemy, you have been disappointed. The more countries that get tariffed, the less negotiating they are likely to do. Picking on one or two countries would likely lead to more negotiations, but that doesn’t bring industry back to the U.S., it just shifts which country gets the U.S. business. GDP matters. For all the tariffs put on, GDP matters for two reasons. One, “good” deals, with small GDP nations, do very little to move the needle. How much can they import from the U.S.? How many high margin, high value things can they afford? How much can they ramp up production to keep costs down (which is irrelevant if the desire is to end manufacturing elsewhere and have it all be domestic)? By the time you are at the 21st country in the world (according to Wikipedia) you are below $1 trillion in GDP. GDP per capita is also quite relevant as it likely correlates to how much stuff they can buy. Vietnam, according to the IMF, is about $17k per person, while Cambodia is $8k (mentioning them as they were quick to reach out and offer a deal). Vietnam, also has an effective tariff rate of just over 5% and an average tariff rate of under 10% (according to Grok), so seems like it should be easy for them to set it to zero as it seems unlikely that tariff rates were the main reason they don’t import much (lack of wealth seems more likely) to avoid the 35% tariffs scheduled for them. China is already pushing back, and what the EU does next will be critical. The more the EU acts as a block, the more likely they are to play it slow. The importer can reduce margin or pass on higher costs. Whatever the net cost rises by it either hits earnings (the importer eats it) or it is inflationary, as prices increase. Yes, in theory it is a “one-time price increase” but at already high price levels for many things, that might hit hard. This is already complex enough, but there is one more big question that we are getting mixed signals on – how long will the tariffs stay in place? If tariffs are viewed primarily as a negotiating ploy two things are likely to happen: Potential shortages over time as importers are hesitant to order new stock subject to high tariffs that they expect to be reduced if they wait. The primary benefit from the U.S. won’t be from tariff income, it would have to come from increased sales of U.S. goods, once the tariffs are reduced. How much are U.S. sales into other countries affected by tariffs, vs. other factors? (design, price, regulations, etc.). U.S. jobs will only increase if we have the capacity to meet higher foreign demand (if such demand increases as tariffs are reduced). If tariffs are going to bring back jobs, they need to be long-lasting. To meet the administration’s goals (tariff income to replace other forms of tax and to bring jobs back to the U.S.), there needs to be a strong belief that the tariffs will last long enough to cover the cost of building out manufacturing in the U.S. and turning a profit. There is some sparce capacity that can be used right away. There are some things that can (maybe) be retrofitted or developed in months, that could come online. But in the end, many things will take years to build. While the buildout itself will create jobs, will companies believe that the tariff policy will last long enough to turn a profit on building out facilities in the U.S.? Again, some of this occurs naturally and is already in the works, but based on the mission, it is a dramatic shift and will take time. If the commitment to build is there, then the U.S. can get the tariff revenue, and then the jobs, but that is a lot of assumptions. Basically, if this is just negotiating, the stated goals don’t really work (unless you believe that tariffs really are hitting sales of U.S. made goods globally really hard). In which case, the markets need to start pricing in long-lasting tariffs. The end game could work, but it will not be an easy path, and the world is likely trying to figure out alternatives (so far China isn’t coming to the table, so much as upping the ante). Everyone is free to see how these scenarios play out, but for now I’m stuck in the camp: No major deals that make it clear that the administration is making big strides on jobs, so tariffs likely stay to provide the tariff revenue to the government. Profit margin erosion across the globe, but the U.S. is harder hit than China. No big boost in jobs on sales of U.S. brands in the near-term (let’s call near-term a year). Inflation and some shortages in the U.S. causing some angst in the next year. New trade alliances formed, partly due to tariffs, but also due to concerns surrounding geopolitical posturing in and around the globe. I cannot get bullish stocks, beyond just for a trade, while I see tariffs playing out this way (as my base/maybe even good case). Bottom Line Since we focused on mission/legacy goals and some thoughts on how tariffs might work (I think I laid out a more optimistic case than I expect, and I don’t think it is great for risk assets globally), I wanted to include one chart in this section. image The “soft” data all points to extreme fear. CNN Fear and Greed Index. AAII Investor Sentiment. You name it, but I look at these 4 incredibly important ETFs and some had almost record inflows into the selling after April 2nd. It is great to be a contrarian, but is the contrarian trade really that it is oversold? That everyone is bearish? The “hard” data/fund flows don’t seem to support that. If you get bored and have a Bloomberg terminal, find any ETF you want (the more speculative, the better) and append SO (shares outstanding) at the end of the ticker and hit . Massive inflows into risky funds and big outflows out of inverse funds. Whatever we might think, there is still a lot of belief that stocks are cheap and that the plans will all work out. Down 20% from the highs, it is difficult to argue with that, and I’m long for a trade, but I think we have another 10% downside and when I look at the massive dip buying still occurring, I’m sadly more comfortable with that outlook in the next week or two. Credit has “joined” the fray as we thought last weekend. That could turn, but as so many other factors (not discussed today, but that we’ve touched on repeatedly) point us towards recession, maybe even stagflation, I don’t think we’ve seen the wides yet. At some point I will be bullish again on risk. Either I find the scenarios (as I probability weight them) point to better conditions for stocks, or we finally get so oversold that it is truly the contrarian trade to buy. In the meantime, I expect more downside. Rates are tricky, as they should be lower, but inflation pressures could be real if the tariffs go ahead as planned (and are semi-permanent). But my bigger concern, which applies both to stocks and bonds, is that the wave of capital repatriation has only just started. It will be curious to see if (or when) retirees (or those getting close) decide that maybe it is prudent to reduce stock exposure for safety? I don’t think that has happened yet (though, it probably has occurred with Democrats already as the gap between the parties on so many fronts has never been wider at any time that I can think of). Good luck, I hope I’m right about the bounce to start the week, and I hope I’m wrong that we won’t see enough of a policy shift, or signs of “winning,” to make me bullish beyond a trade. Sun, 04/06/2025 - 20:00
Apple Faces Tariff Turbulence After Trump's "Liberation Day" - What's Next For iPhone Prices? Apple Faces Tariff Turbulence After Trump's "Liberation Day" - What's Next For iPhone Prices? Most Asian countries have publicly stated that they will not retaliate against President Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs - except for China, which a 34% increase on all imports from the United States, effective next Thursday.  Notably, two Asian nations,  , have signaled a willingness to negotiate, seeking to de-escalate trade tensions and move toward what Trump has wanted: "fair trade." And why did Vietnam and Taiwan capitulate? Goldman's research desk shows just why. image published a note Sunday warning that a tariff escalation between Trump and Asian countries could impact the price of America's beloved smartphone: Apple iPhones: Since the debut of the iPhone X in 2017, Apple hasn't increased the starting price of its flagship model from $999. There have been smaller adjustments, such as tweaking the amount charged for storage and introducing larger models like the 11 Pro and 12 Pro Max. In 2023, for instance, Apple enacted a quasi price increase with the iPhone 15: It boosted the starting price of the Pro Max version by $100 by eliminating the lowest capacity option. Now, with tariffs hitting Apple's major sources of production, the specter of a price increase is back in a big way. And that's raising the question of how large such a hike might be — and how consumers would feel about it. -BBG . . .  The current $999 level is a psychological threshold that many consumers probably don't want to cross.  Trump's Liberation Day hit Asian economies the hardest, with most of the tariff shock based along Apple's supply chain:  India, where Apple is increasingly building iPhones and AirPods, will have a 26% tariff. Vietnam, where the company now makes some AirPods, iPads, Apple Watches and Macs, will be hit with a 46% levy. Malaysia, where Apple is increasingly producing Macs, will have a 24% tariff. Thailand, where the company also makes some Macs, will get a 37% levy. Ireland, within the European Union, gets a 20% tariff. Apple produces some iMacs there. Indonesia, which will soon begin making AirTags and mesh for the AirPods Max headphones, gets a 32% tariff. The latest tariffs will be 34% for China, bringing its total level to 54%. But the overall picture suggests Apple isn't going to get as much benefit as hoped from diversifying away from that country. Apple will still be taking a hit on iPhones made in India, AirPods made in Vietnam and Macs made elsewhere in Asia. Trade data via the supply chain platform Sayari shows that Apple suppliers range from India to Taiwan and Vietnam to China. image Here's more data from Bloomberg about Apple's complex supply chain throughout Asia. image The question becomes whether Asian countries capitulate to Trump's tariff bazooka. So far, ... Vietnam, Taiwan Capitulate: Offer To Remove All US Tariffs, Boost Investment — zerohedge (@zerohedge) But what about China? Apple still relies on the bulk of its supply chain in the world's second-largest economy. With the effective tariff rate on Chinese goods entering the U.S. now at 54%, the question becomes: How long will Washington and Beijing continue to duke it out over trade?  Goldman data...  image In the meantime,  asked whether Apple CEO Tim Cook will eat the tariff costs, push suppliers to reduce prices, pass on the expense to customers, or make supply chain readjustments.  Gurman explained that Cook will likely do a combination of the four as Trump's America First policies lead to a reordering of the global economy:  For one, you can bet that the company's procurement teams are pushing component makers and manufacturing partners to offer better pricing. That could help preserve profit margins. Second, I would imagine Apple is prepared to eat a small percentage of the costs. With a typical hardware margin of around 45%, it has some room to play with if needed. Third, while the company is still in assessment mode, I expect that Apple will seriously consider iPhone price adjustments. It helps that consumers have probably heard about the outside factors here and won't see it as a cash grab. Finally, it's likely that Apple will pursue further supply chain changes. That probably won't involve a full-scale return to U.S. manufacturing, but the company will try to make itself less vulnerable to tariffs. Recall that Cook visited the White House on February 20 to discuss trade policy and tariffs. The question now is whether Apple can maintain the current $999 psychological pricing threshold for the iPhone—or whether Trump will be able to de-escalate the trade war before the next iteration of the smartphone is released. Many questions.  Sun, 04/06/2025 - 19:35
"Fundamentally Fascist": Musk Schools Italian Lawmakers On Censorship, Mass Migration, And Regulatory Overreach "Fundamentally Fascist": Musk Schools Italian Lawmakers On Censorship, Mass Migration, And Regulatory Overreach Elon Musk joined Italy’s Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini, leader of the League party, for an interview during the party’s congress in Florence on Saturday. The world’s richest man explored a broad range of issues, from mass immigration and censorship to tariffs and EU overregulation. image Musk, who notably exposed massive government-tech collusion to censor free speech after releasing the "Twitter Files," fiercely criticized forces opposing free expression - which comes on the heels of EU regulators to fine Musk up to $1 billion for not curbing alleged disinformation on the platform.  "You can tell which side is the good side and the bad side by which side wishes to restrict freedom of speech,” Musk told Salvini. “The Hitlers, Stalins, and Mussolinis of the world had very strong censorship." . : "You can tell which side is the good side and the bad side by which side wishes to restrict freedom of speech." "In pushing for censorship, it makes it very clear that the left is the side against freedom." — Josh Caplan (@joshdcaplan) "Restriction on speech and large government is fundamentally fascists. Ironically, in pushing for censorship, it makes it very clear that the left is the side against freedom,” the Tesla and SpaceX CEO added. Shifting focus, Musk addressed President Donald Trump’s tariffs, advocating for a zero-tariff free trade zone between Europe and North America. He emphasized greater economic integration and urged Trump to ease restrictions on individuals living and working across the two regions. "I'm hopeful that the United States and Europe can move, ideally in my view, to a zero-tariff situation. Effectively creating a free trade zone between Europe and North America,” Musk said. "That's what I hope occurs, and also more freedom for people to move between Europe and the U.S. If they wish to work in Europe or America, they should be allowed to do so, in my view. That has certainly been my advice to the President,” the billionaire added. 🚨 ELON MUSK: "With the tariffs, that at the end of the day, I hope it is agreed that both Europe and the United States should move to a zero tariff situation, effectively creating a free trade zone between Europe and North America." — DogeDesigner (@cb_doge) This week, President Trump imposed tariffs on numerous countries, including a 20% levy on the European Union, prompting EU officials to pledge and French authorities to call on domestic firms to suspend investment plans in the United States. Musk also lambasted Europe’s stifling regulatory environment, calling it a significant obstacle to entrepreneurial success and pushing for sweeping deregulation. "Europe is over regulated. There are too many rules and regulations that make it very difficult to create a company and be successful,” Musk told Salvini. "So I think radical deregulation is necessary in Europe. And if that means leaving the EU, it means leaving the EU,” he added bluntly. . : "Europe is over regulated. There are too many rules and regulations that make it very difficult to create a company and be successful." "Radical deregulation is necessary in Europe." "If that means leaving the EU, it means leaving the EU." — Josh Caplan (@joshdcaplan) Finally, Musk delivered a dire warning about unchecked mass immigration, asserting that a nation’s identity lies in its people, not its borders, and that unrestricted inflows could spell a country’s demise. “Mass immigration is insane and will lead to the destruction of any country that allows unfettered mass immigration — That country will simply cease to exist,” Musk warned. “A country is it's people, not it's geography. This is a fundamental concept.” Elon Musk: “Mass immigration is insane and will lead to the destruction of any country that allows unfettered mass immigration — That country will simply cease to exist... A country is it's people, not it's geography. This is a fundamental concept.” — America (@america) Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni campaigned on a promise to reduce illegal immigration, and her efforts are showing clear results. In 2022, Italy saw 105,131 illegal arrivals, a figure that jumped to 157,651 in 2023 due to worsening global conditions. However, by 2024, the number of arrivals plummeted to 66,317—a nearly 60% decrease, the reports.  Sun, 04/06/2025 - 19:10
"It Would Be Easy To Keep Pumping Up The Economy, Borrowing A Lot Of Money, Creating A Lot Of Government Jobs" "It Would Be Easy To Keep Pumping Up The Economy, Borrowing A Lot Of Money, Creating A Lot Of Government Jobs" By Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management “It would have been easy to keep pumping up the economy, borrowing a lot of money, creating a lot of government jobs,” explained Treasury Secretary Bessent to Tucker Carlson, defending the administration’s policies, while describing the extent to which Biden juiced up the US economy, like a body builder on steroids, appearing strong while destroying his internal organs. (explained here " ") “There was no controversy when we were doing all that, but you would have ended up in a calamity,” he said. “If you go back and look at the financial crisis in 2007-08, the economy looked great right up until then. You go back to the end of the dotcom bubble, and the whole credit problem, fraud at Enron and some other companies, the economy looked great until it didn’t.” . — Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) “My advice to every country right now is do not retaliate. Sit back, take it in, let’s see how it goes. Because if you retaliate, there will be escalation,” warned Bessent, Treasury Secretary, the Liberation Day shockwave circling the globe.  Xi Jinping listened carefully. And seeing America declaring economic war on all its allies and adversaries, along with some uninhabited islands, he mapped out his next move. Weighed the pros and cons, calculated the risk/reward, considered his nation’s ability to endure extreme and prolonged hardship relative to ours, and then blatantly ignored Bessent’s advice, matching Trump’s tariffs and limiting America’s access to critical rare earth metals.  “This would be a PERFECT time for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to cut Interest Rates. He is always “late,” but he could now change his image, and quickly. Energy prices are down, Interest Rates are down, Inflation is down, even Eggs are down 69%, and Jobs are UP, all within two months - A BIG WIN for America. CUT INTEREST RATES, JEROME, AND STOP PLAYING POLITICS!,” posted President Trump on Truth Social, his DJT social media stock price hitting new lows, his meme coin too.  “While tariffs are highly likely to generate at least a temporary rise in inflation, it is also possible that the effects could be more persistent,” said Powell. “Our obligation is to keep longer-term inflation expectations well anchored and to make certain that a one-time increase in the price level does not become an ongoing inflation problem,” continued the Fed Chairman. “We are well positioned to wait for greater clarity before considering any adjustments to our policy stance. It is too soon to say what will be the appropriate path for monetary policy,” he added, directly ignoring America’s President.  “TO THE MANY INVESTORS COMING INTO THE UNITED STATES AND INVESTING MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF MONEY, MY POLICIES WILL NEVER CHANGE. THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO GET RICH, RICHER THAN EVER BEFORE!!!,” posted Trump, America’s friends and foes all wondering how much damage will be done, how much pain inflicted, wealth destroyed, before his policies will of course change. Sun, 04/06/2025 - 18:45
Oh, That Influence Peddling: Times Finds Evidence Suggesting Hunter Acted As Foreign Agent Oh, That Influence Peddling: Times Finds Evidence Suggesting Hunter Acted As Foreign Agent For years, some of us have   about the Biden family’s multimillion-dollar influence-peddling operation and the Justice Department’s refusal to charge Hunter Biden with being an unregistered foreign agent. Now, years later, the New York Times has found evidence suggesting that Hunter Biden was acting as a foreign agent as early as the Obama Administration, when his Dad was Vice President. image Last August, the New York Times ran a   with damaging new details: Hunter Biden sought assistance from the U.S. government for a potentially lucrative energy project in Italy while his father was vice president, according to newly released records and interviews. The records, which the Biden administration had withheld for years, indicate that Hunter Biden wrote at least one letter to the U.S. ambassador to Italy in 2016 seeking assistance for the Ukrainian gas company Burisma, where he was a board member… The State Department did not release the actual text of the letter. That is precisely what many of us have been writing about in asking why Hunter was not charged with being an unregistered foreign agent as was the case under cases from  . The Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA) covers anyone acting as “ ,” including but not limited to (1) attempting to influence federal officials or the public on domestic or foreign policy or the political or public interests in favor of a foreign country; (2) collecting or disbursing money and or other things of value within the United States; or (3) representing the interests of the foreign principal before U.S. Government officials or agencies. It is sweeping. So is the definition of what a “foreign principal” encompasses,   “a foreign government, a foreign political party, any person outside the United States (except U.S. citizens who are domiciled within the United States), and any entity organized under the laws of a foreign country or having its principal place of business in a foreign country.” As I previously wrote,    Republican counsel Victoria Toensing and others. However, the Justice Department and Special Counsel David Weiss seemed to tie themselves into knots to avoid tripping the wire on FARA even as it discussed Hunter’s work for foreign clients. The government also resisted FOIA requests from the Times and other media. Vogel wrote: The request was initially filed under the Freedom of Information Act, or FOIA, in June 2021. After nearly eight months, the State Department had not released any records, and The Times sued. About 18 months later, the department moved to close the case after releasing thousands of pages of records — none of which shed light on Hunter Biden’s outreach to the U.S. government. The Times challenged the thoroughness of the search, noting that the department had failed to produce responsive records contained in a cache of files connected to a laptop that Mr. Biden had abandoned at a Delaware repair shop. The department resumed the search and periodic productions, but had produced few documents related to Mr. Biden until the week after his father ended his re-election campaign and endorsed Vice President Harris for the Democratic nomination. Now we have a copy of   that gives us an insight into the evidence buried for years: The State Department last week released a letter that Hunter Biden wrote while his father was serving as vice president in which he sought assistance from the U.S. government for the Ukrainian energy company Burisma. In the 📄.pdf  on Burisma letterhead to the U.S. ambassador to Italy, Mr. Biden requested “support and guidance” in arranging a meeting with an Italian official to resolve regulatory hurdles to geothermal energy projects Burisma was pursuing in the Tuscany region… The letter requested help arranging a meeting between Burisma officials and Enrico Rossi, the president of the Tuscany regional government at the time, “to introduce geothermal projects led by Burisma Group, to highlight their social and economic benefits for local communities and develop a common action plan that would lead to further development of the Tuscany Region.” How could any Justice Department official, let alone a Special Counsel, read that letter and not see the glaring disconnect between the handling of the case involving Joe Biden’s son and others like Manafort? The letter references a trip on which Hunter, as was his pattern, used official travel with his father to make these business connections. The letter mentions meeting a key ambassador on Air Force Two as he seeks assistance for his client. The ambassador then sent a follow-up letter saying he knew the president of Tuscany and identified a Commerce Department official working at the US embassy to “see where our interests may overlap.” It was another example of alleged influence peddling through his father and work for a foreign client in lobbying the government. During this period, the Justice Department seemed to be on a hair-trigger for FARA charges. Yet, when it came to Hunter Biden, the entire department seemed composed of legal  . Many in the media attacked those of us who have been writing about this corruption stretching back to the Obama Administration. Many simply insisted that there was no evidence while taking no steps to find out. While the media was unrelenting in investigating Trump allegations of Russian collusion and business improprieties, it took a largely passive stance in pursuing this story. Even the New York Times, which can be credited with pursuing this FOIA information, did comparably little with the ample evidence of corruption by the Bidens in securing millions through influence peddling. What remains is a corruption scandal involving not only what the Bidens did but also what the Justice Department did not do over this extended period. It appears to heed the advice not of whistleblowers but politicians like former Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) that “everybody needs to back off” the influence-peddling story. Of course, Joe Biden  . What was most notable, however, was that he not only pardoned him for any crimes from human trafficking to tax evasion, but did so for a period running from Jan. 1, 2014 to Dec. 1, 2024. This letter explains why such a sweeping, extended pardon was needed. Yet, in the end, the greatest indictment from this scandal was of the Justice Department itself. Sun, 04/06/2025 - 14:00
Israeli Army Organizes 'Hiking Tours' For Jewish Settlers In Occupied Syria Israeli Army Organizes 'Hiking Tours' For Jewish Settlers In Occupied Syria The Israeli army is organizing hiking tours for civilians inside recently occupied Syrian territory during the upcoming Passover holiday,   to Israeli media reports. The tours, coordinated by the Israeli military's Northern Command and 210th Division alongside the "Friends on Excursions" group, are supported by the Golan Heights Settlements Council and the Israeli Nature and Parks Authority. image Participants, who must receive special permits, will be escorted by Israeli troops as they travel up to 2.5 kilometers into Syrian land, near the village of Maaraba. Tour highlights include visits to Wadi al-Ruqad (a tributary of the Yarmouk River), the Hejaz Railway Tunnel, and the Shebaa Farms – a contested strip of Lebanese territory occupied by Israel at the base of Mount Hermon. Though registration has closed, the army said additional tours may be offered depending on the security situation. The excursions mark the first Israeli civilian presence in areas of Syria recently taken over by Israeli forces following the fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in December. In recent months, Israel has intensified airstrikes on Syrian military bases and moved beyond the Golan Heights' demilitarized buffer zone, occupying strategic areas like Mount Hermon in violation of the 1974 disengagement agreement. Initial Israeli security plans reportedly envisioned a 15-km demilitarized zone and a broader 60-km zone of influence inside Syria. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has since called for the complete demilitarization of southern Syria, declaring that Israeli troops would remain in the Golan buffer zone and Mount Hermon indefinitely to block Syrian army access south of Damascus. Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has openly   support for expanding Israel's borders beyond Palestinian territories, hinting at ambitions for a "Greater Israel" encompassing parts of neighboring Arab countries, including as far as Damascus. In a French documentary, Israel: Extremists in Power, Smotrich endorsed a Jewish state governed by Jewish values and smiled when asked if Israeli sovereignty should extend beyond the Jordan River. Chinese woman vlogger travel to see Israel newly occupied Syrian territory near Golan Heights. Her Syrian driver told her that Israeli has setup road blocks and snipers to keep Syrians from visit what was still unoccupied Syria 1 month ago. — Carl Zha (@CarlZha) He referenced a biblical prophecy about Jerusalem stretching "until Damascus." While the Israeli government maintains its official goal as defeating Hezbollah, Smotrich's comments—and settler support—raise concerns about broader expansionist intentions in Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, and beyond. Sun, 04/06/2025 - 07:35
Over 100 Rounds Fired During Weekend Shooting In Seattle Over 100 Rounds Fired During Weekend Shooting In Seattle West Seatlle...or war zone? That's the question many have to be asking after a report that over 100 rounds were fired in West Seattle this past Sunday according to . The SPD said in a statement: “On March 30, patrol officers responded to multiple reports of shots fired and property damage near 26th Avenue Southwest and Southwest Brandon Street.”  “When police arrived, all involved parties left the area. They did not locate any victims with injuries, no suspects, or cooperative witnesses,” the report continued. image Seattle police say a large crowd was gathered for a vigil—likely for a recent South Seattle homicide victim—when gunfire erupted. Officers found over 100 shell casings at the scene. A detective commented: “There was bullet damage to a nearby RV trailer. There was bullet damage to a house, and there was an abandoned vehicle that was also damaged." The says that SPD suspects Glock switches may have been involved. The Gun Violence Reduction Unit is investigating and processing the scene. “These glock switches, they’re basically capable of turning a pistol into an automatic machine gun type of a weapon,” the detective continued.  Wed, 04/02/2025 - 20:30