As we approach Month end, time to look at what has happened before in Nov in relation to the 2013-2017 Fractal I am sure we are following. This year, we had a RED August followed by GREEN Sep & Oct That also happened in 2023 AND in 2015 & 2016 And Those years were the Only time that sequence happened. And they all had a GREEN November close and it Looks we could do that again. In fact, PA can drop to around 74K usdt and still remain GREEN (which allows that CME Gap to be Filled) AND all of those Green Novembers were followed by a GREEN DECEMBER However, the following January was RED in 2015 & 2016 and was a tight DOJI in 2023. Things went green red till April and in 2016, Shot up to ATH by December Will this happen again ? Time Will tell image
Chart shows all the RATE decisions by the FED since it began raising and the effect on Bitcoin PA and other Key moments To me, It shows that the Effect on BTC was indirect and that it was when other comapnies collapsed, thats when BTC stalled a bit BTC rises from Jan 2023 despite continued rises image
Bitcoin back over 35 ounces of Gold per BTC Couls we hit 50 ounces in Dec ? It is Very possible The Current ATH is 37.322 ounces There is certainly resistance till then and this all depends on so many factors GOLD has Droped for 2 weeks, may fight back soon except BTC is a more favourable option now image
Bitcoin still on the rise Vertical dashed line is 25 Dec This years target Is that 1.382 Fib line maybe - will the 2 meet ? MACD starting to turn RSI already falling - Histogram falling Could be hidden BEARISH Divergence inside the Bigger BULLISH Divergence Watch DXY $ and BTC.D image
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Why have I been saying "Be Bullish Cautious" The 1st image is of the Push to the March 2021 ATH and PA this time round has repeated this with remarkable accuracy but over a longer time period, as can be seen in the 2nd Image of 2024 This leads me to think there is possibly one more Push before a large Sell off. That 100K target is Calling loud and strong, providing Market remains Bullish The 3rd Image is the NUPL ( Bet Unrealised Profit Loss) and to keep it simple, Just look where the Real ATH's are in the past ( vertical lines ). Every one is in the channel we just entered. We can stay here for Weeks So, if we follow the idea % Rise and Drop of PA and we look at the NUPL, we need to be Cautious that PA could be near an ATH that may turn over anytime Longer Term, I see another push higher after this point but this may not be till Spring or later next year. The Bull Run is not over this December but maybe not till December 2025
DXY $ since Jan 2023 We can see that DXY has been ranging since Bitcoin began it Rise to its current New High So, Whats Next for DXY $ ? You will notice how it broke out of range and has since dropped back in. It did that once before in Oct 2023, after which it ranged for a month before falling back to the lower Trendline and it did not reach the upper line again until April 2024 I have included the MACD and RSI in this image as, to me, it all looks very Similar and that leads me to think that this could be repeated if the Macro situation remains the same. BUT the USA has now got a New "Boss" and he is already shaking the tree.... and this maybe Good or Bad for the $ Last time Trump was president, the DXY Ranged really with a Range high low of 25%, falling initialy but recovering for the majority of his time in the White house. Current range is 7% and, as mentioned, sitting at Range high The Traditional Financial world waits to see where this will go next. Large Wars do not make the DXY rise on the whole. We all wait and as ever, Time will tell image
problems posting here again Often happens..any ideas why ?
Bitcoin Previous CUPS image
There are a number of things to Note on the Bitcoin Weekly chart today First and foremost is that PA has remained above the trendline that, once crossed, has, historically, led to PA reaching to the upper trendline and creating the Real ATH of the Cycle. PA also closed Green on the Weekly candle, higher than ever before. Selling has slowed despite the price rising, People are realising that to sell now may be STUPID The MVRV Z score is Excellent. the Green Z Score has crossed over the MVRV line. This ONLY happens when PA is en-route to the real ATH The Mayer Multiple has also crossed over its own MA. We really could now be on the way folks. The next 12 months will be emotional but what ever happens -> DO NOT SELL YOUR BITCOINS