It’s fascinating how quickly sentiment is shifting. That kind of momentum only fuels more volatility, and you know we thrive on volatility. Bitcoin fever is spreading fast. It’s hitting everyone, leaving no man, woman, or child untouched. FOMO acts like a turbocharger; the more people feed into it, the stronger it gets. It’s a classic positive feedback loop. More Bitcoin is being bought than mined. With new supply shrinking, available sats are disappearing from the market. At some point, the price has to catch up. I don’t obsess over price the way some think I should. When I “buy” Bitcoin, I’m not spending…I’m locking in profit. Stack sats, new friends, and keep the old.

A little over a month ago, Bitcoin recorded a CAGR of just 8% over the prior four year period; the lowest it’s seen in that kind of window. Experiencing that felt just as off as it sounds. And yet, Ark Invest recently updated its bull case for Bitcoin to a staggering 72% CAGR through 2030, with a projected price of $2.4 million. Do they know something I don’t? Honestly… probably. Their research budget is effectively infinite compared to mine, so it wouldn’t shock me if they’re seeing signals I can’t. Ark attributes this expected surge primarily to institutional demand…something I’ve also believed would be a key driver, especially over the past year. But the timing of this renewed conviction, right on the heels of major developments in the market, feels a little too well-timed to be coincidence. I’ll admit, I had expected the idea of “diminishing returns” to be disproven by now. And with Ark’s new projections, there’s still a real possibility that narrative collapses. The invalidation of diminishing returns doesn’t require everyone on Earth to become a Bitcoin maximalist. It could just as well be catalyzed by the rapid deterioration of fiat currencies. That scenario is arguably more plausible, and certainly more painful, but it leads us, indirectly, to the same outcome: Bitcoin becoming the clear monetary alternative. Bitcoin’s scarcity isn’t static; it compounds. Through its programmed supply schedule and the inevitable loss of coins due to human error, available supply will continue to dwindle. Price and divisibility will naturally fill the gap. Bitcoin is many things: a network, a settlement layer, a savings technology, but it has long since transcended mere speculation. It’s about time the world stopped and took real notice.

When I first found Bitcoin, the idea that it could become the most pristine form of collateral was still just speculation. Since I started stacking, we’ve already begun to see Bitcoin being used as collateral, and I suppose watching it fulfill that potential will be…well, fulfilling. It’ll be interesting to see who all begins offering Bitcoin backed loans and who ends up holding the lion’s share of that debt liability. Could it lead to a new kind of rehypothecation crisis down the line? Possibly. I’m also curious to see who all uses these products and whether the products will make Bitcoin more appealing to no coiners. Adoption through financial products could bring new interest, even if it’s not the kind I originally imagined. When I pictured institutional adoption, I expected more companies to truly get orange pilled. But now I worry many will end up leaving large amounts of BTC on exchanges and play around with wrapped products or derivatives that could artificially dilute the perceived supply. As for me, I’ll probably just stick to custodying my own sats and stacking spot Bitcoin: keep it simple, stupid. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Maybe one day, the incentives will be strong enough to make it worth taking a risk, but for now, I’ll keep doing what’s always made the most sense to me.

Bitcoin’s recent behavior has been strange; acting both like a risk asset and a safe haven. Somehow, it’s pulling off the best of both worlds, driven by global sentiment. I wish I were joking, but it’s real. Its 30 day correlation with the S&P 500 is around 65% and weakening, while Bitcoin has been outperforming during the same period. It’s not just keeping up; it’s proving to be the superior asset in the comparison. As Bitcoin grows stronger, the dollar continues to weaken. I don’t use leverage, and I don’t wait around with dry powder for the “perfect dip.” Every dollar I can convert into Bitcoin is a win regardless of the exchange rate. I live on a frugal budget and stay productive because every bit of value I create can be stored in something that actually respects my effort. Bitcoin’s resilience continues to surprise. Fearing a premature bear market now feels like flinching at big brother market’s shadow. Even if the price pulled back, my conviction wouldn’t change, but yeah, it would’ve felt like someone rained on the parade. The truth is, it’s still too early for us to fully understand what Bitcoin will become. We’re all just making our best guesses. Even Bitcoin doesn’t seem to know what it is yet it’s like an infant, testing boundaries, learning its place in the world. But that’s the beauty of it. Bitcoin is fluid: it adapts, it evolves. It moves between roles with ease, constantly challenging more stagnant assets and institutions, giving them all a run for their money. And it’s only just getting started.