🛰️ #OSINT Update for 15 January 2026 (CET) 🛰️
🇺🇸 United States — AI Regulation • Cyber Defence • Financial Crime
→ Federal regulators issued clarifying guidance on scope thresholds for mandatory AI audits, narrowing exemptions for biometric and behavioural systems used by state contractors.
→ CISA elevated threat posture for critical-infrastructure operators after continued exploitation of deepfake voice lures in executive impersonation attacks.
→ FinCEN initiated targeted examinations of large kiosk operators with cross-border exposure, focusing on transaction aggregation and source-of-funds tracing.
🇩🇪 Germany — Data Oversight • Surveillance Tech
→ Federal data-protection authorities opened coordinated proceedings against multiple municipalities over unlawful retention of facial-recognition metadata.
→ Bundestag committee advanced amendments tightening reporting obligations for firms exporting lawful-intercept and encryption-related hardware.
🇬🇧 United Kingdom — Immigration • Domestic Security
→ Home Office confirmed expansion of biometric re-verification for long-stay visas following integrity gaps identified in eVisa enrolments.
→ Security services flagged increased use of privacy-enhancing crypto tools within domestic extremist financing networks.
🇨🇦 Canada — Crypto Oversight • Border Biometrics
→ FINTRAC signalled forthcoming guidance on stablecoin reserve attestations after consultation feedback highlighted systemic opacity risks.
→ CBSA biometric pilot recorded elevated secondary-screening rates tied to data-matching errors; remediation measures underway.
🇦🇺 Australia — AI Ethics • Surveillance
→ Federal review panel delayed approval of automated facial-recognition expansion in transport hubs pending bias and error-rate disclosures.
→ GovAI auditors began spot-checks of legacy AI systems still operating under provisional waivers.
🇪🇺 European Union & Member States — Digital Identity Wallets • AI Act • Chat Control
→ Several Member States submitted preliminary EUDI Wallet conformity results, revealing uneven compliance on revocation and cross-border authentication.
→ National regulators aligned enforcement timelines for high-risk AI recruitment tools ahead of phased AI Act penalties.
→ Chat Control negotiations narrowed to two competing texts, with encryption safeguards remaining the principal blocker.
🇷🇺 Russia — Strike Ops • De-dollarisation • Military Posture
→ Russian forces adjusted strike patterns toward logistics corridors supporting Ukrainian air defence, increasing pressure on repair cycles.
→ Finance ministry expanded capital controls to additional export-linked enterprises, tightening FX settlement windows.
🇺🇦 Ukraine — Drones • Long-Range Strike • Cyber Defence
→ Ukrainian UAV units reported sustained disruption of Russian fuel trans-shipment hubs using low-cost, long-range platforms.
→ CERT-UA confirmed takedown of access-broker infrastructure linked to earlier municipal network intrusions.
🇮🇱 Israel — Border Security • Intelligence • Cyber
→ Border authorities integrated additional AI risk-scoring layers at Gaza-adjacent crossings, reducing manual inspections while increasing seizure rates.
→ National cyber teams attributed recent utility-network probes to regionally linked access brokers; defensive posture elevated.
🇵🇸 Palestine — Humanitarian Aid
→ Aid coordinators warned of further degradation in water-treatment capacity due to fuel scarcity, increasing public health risks.
🇨🇳 China — Digital ID • Surveillance • Censorship
→ Expanded rollout of unified digital-ID credentials tied to financial and welfare access in secondary cities.
→ Network operators intensified encrypted-traffic classification pilots, increasing latency for selected circumvention tools.
🇯🇵 Japan — Encryption • Cyber Resilience
→ Cabinet-level working group approved final text for updated encryption compliance rules, formal adoption expected this quarter.
→ Maritime agencies conducted follow-on GPS-disruption resilience tests after anomalous signals detected earlier this week.
🇰🇵 North Korea — Military Posture
→ New construction activity observed at missile-support facilities near eastern coastal zones; no launch preparations confirmed.
🇮🇷 Iran — Regional Posture • Proxy Operations • Cyber
→ Iranian-aligned networks increased UAV component transfers through regional intermediaries following recent interdictions.
→ State-linked cyber actors resumed credential-harvesting campaigns targeting regional NGOs and infrastructure-adjacent entities.
================================================
🏦 ECB — Digital-Euro • CBDC Architecture
→ Internal ECB briefings highlighted trade-offs between offline usability and transaction caps; member central banks requested additional stress-testing data.
🛰️ Intelligence Agencies — NSA • CISA • BND • MSS • Mossad
→ NSA and CISA expanded joint guidance on synthetic-media detection for OT/ICS operators.
→ BND circulated alerts on coordinated SIM-swap campaigns targeting energy and telecom leadership across the EU.
→ MSS broadened urban analytics pilots integrating transport and utility telemetry for anomaly detection.
🔍 Cyberattack
→ Wave of credential-stuffing and MFA-bypass attempts targeted EU municipal and academic networks, exploiting legacy identity federation setups.
→ OT/ICS defenders reported increased probing of building-management systems, with firmware persistence remaining a primary concern.
================================================
📌 Forward Triggers
→ NATO consultations or posture shifts tied to Russia/Ukraine escalation.
→ Publication of full EUDI Wallet conformity-assessment results and enforcement actions.
→ EU trilogue outcome on Chat Control and final encryption language.
→ Verified impact assessments on Russian fuel exports following continued Ukrainian UAV strikes.
→ FinCEN enforcement actions or rule finalisation affecting kiosks and high-risk MSBs.
→ ECB sandbox telemetry influencing offline CBDC limits or pseudonymity policy.
→ Israeli utility cyber-forensics findings prompting sector-wide advisories.
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🛰️ End of report.
🛰️ #OSINT Update for 13 January 2026 (CET) 🛰️
🇺🇸 United States — AI Regulation • Cyber Defence • Financial Crime
→ Federal regulators issued updated compliance bulletins for Q1 AI audit filings; emphasis on biometric & behavioural systems persisted across civilian and DoD supplier categories.
→ CISA elevated mitigation guidance for a surge in synthetic-media phishing campaigns targeting energy and telecom sectors; sector ISACs integrating new detection playbooks.
→ FinCEN broadened supervisory reviews to include emerging edge-case reporting gaps among crypto kiosks and high-risk MSBs; enforcement scopes signalled for late Q1.
🇩🇪 Germany — Data Oversight • Surveillance Tech
→ Berlin data authorities announced coordinated nationwide inspections of biometric access and analytics deployments at major transit hubs; preliminary findings to be reported in Q1.
→ Bundestag committee revived encryption policy debate, with cross-party calls for strengthened lawful intercept safeguards amid rising Chat Control tensions.
🇬🇧 United Kingdom — Immigration • Domestic Security
→ Home Office biometric enrolment stabilisation effort continued with additional regional service centres added; internal metrics indicate reduced error rates but persistent edge cases.
→ MI5 issued internal threat bulletin on encrypted procurement channels tied to extremist financing, advocating stepped-up behavioural analytics across domestic networks.
🇨🇦 Canada — Crypto Oversight • Border Biometrics
→ FINTRAC extended consultation windows for stablecoin operational safeguards; draft consumer-protection models entered technical review with industry.
→ CBSA biometric screening pilots reported throughput improvements; internal audit slated for cross-border biometric trust validation.
🇦🇺 Australia — AI Ethics • Surveillance
→ Federal oversight panels published revised draft criteria for independent audits of AI-tagging tools in law enforcement body-cams; transport facial-recognition rollouts remained paused pending final frameworks.
→ GovAI emphasised red-teaming and third-party validation for all high-risk government-used AI systems.
🇪🇺 European Union & Member States — Digital Identity Wallets • AI Act • Chat Control
→ Member States reported incremental progress on EUDI Wallet conformity assessments; national pilots scheduled for Q2 integration testing.
→ National regulators circulated updated AI Act implementation guides for high-risk and recruitment systems; enforcement trajectories clarified for early 2026.
→ Chat Control trilogue talks remained status-quoad-status, with no breakthrough reached; core disagreements persist on scanning scope and encryption exemptions.
🇷🇺 Russia — Strike Ops • De-dollarisation • Military Posture
→ Russian combined drone/missile salvos impacted Ukrainian energy and logistics hubs over the weekend; multiple regional power nodes were damaged, prompting localized repair efforts.
→ Moscow continued tightening ruble-only settlement directives across key public contracts to advance de-dollarisation agendas.
🇺🇦 Ukraine — Drones • Long-Range Strike • Cyber Defence
→ Ukraine’s long-range UAV sorties persisted against strategic Russian logistics and fuel infrastructure; Kyiv sources reported slowed throughput at key depots.
→ CERT-UA siloed and remediated supply-chain masquerade and credential-phishing campaigns targeting municipal networks; elevated MFA mandatory controls implemented.
🇮🇱 Israel — Border Security • Intelligence • Cyber
→ AI-assisted screening lanes at Gaza-adjacent crossings saw expanded integration with SIGINT queues for real-time pattern detection of dual-use flows.
→ National cyber-defence teams mitigated targeted ransomware campaigns against critical utility vendors; forensic triage continues.
🇵🇸 Palestine — Humanitarian Aid
→ UN agencies and partners reported persistent fuel and medical supply constraints in northern Gaza; collaborative logistics efforts sought to prioritise neonatal and ICU resupply.
🇨🇳 China — Digital ID • Surveillance • Censorship
→ Beijing accelerated digital-ID linkage across welfare and municipal services, with enhanced audit logging and biometric provenance controls mandated; rollout expanded to additional provinces.
→ Advanced encrypted traffic labeling and content analytics pilots widened; operators testing resilience to circumvention.
🇯🇵 Japan — Encryption • Cyber Resilience
→ Government issued updated encryption implementation guidance retaining emergency carve-outs; operators given compliance timelines for Q2 deployment.
→ MOD with telecom partners rehearsed GPS-spoofing countermeasures across coastal and port infrastructure scenarios.
🇰🇵 North Korea — Military Posture
→ Commercial reconnaissance indicated continued expansion of radar and missile support sites along eastern and southwestern coastal belts; no new ballistic tests confirmed.
🇮🇷 Iran — Regional Posture • Proxy Operations • Cyber
→ Iran’s IRGC accelerated UAV and loitering munition deliveries to allied proxy units in theatre; logistical sealines tightened via Red Sea and Gulf routes.
→ Cyber units linked to state-actor infrastructure expanded credential harvesting and spear-phishing targeting regional government and civil society echelons.
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🏦 ECB — Digital-Euro • CBDC Architecture
→ ECB continued digital-euro sandbox cycles focused on offline payment thresholds and layered pseudonymity; telemetry outputs to be integrated into Q1 policy modelling.
🛰️ Intelligence Agencies — NSA • CISA • BND • MSS • Mossad
→ NSA/CISA updated joint playbooks for defending OT/ICS environments against multi-vector synthetic-media social-engineering and credential-harvest campaigns, highlighting media-provenance validation and step-up flows.
→ BND and partners flagged clustered SIM-swap/port-out operations targeting senior telecom, energy and infrastructure staff; port-lock and 2FA best practice advisories distributed.
→ MSS expanded smart-meter and urban-mobility analytics pilot projects to additional prefectures.
🔍 Cyberattack
→ Holiday and post-holiday credential-stuffing and spear-phishing waves were reported against academic, municipal and energy networks; legacy SAML and weak MFA configurations remain principal risk exposure vectors.
→ OT/ICS advisories urged accelerated patching for high-severity vendor CVEs in building and HVAC controllers to prevent persistence exploits.
================================================
📌 Forward Triggers
→ NATO consultations or posture changes following escalation tied to Russia/Ukraine operations.
→ Publication of Member-State EUDI Wallet conformity-assessment outcomes and enforcement actions.
→ EU trilogue outcome on Chat Control, particularly scanning/encryption language.
→ Verified assessments on Russian fuel production/export impacts from continued Ukrainian strikes.
→ FinCEN enforcement actions or rule-finalisation affecting kiosks and high-risk MSBs.
→ ECB sandbox signals altering offline-CBDC or pseudonymity policy trajectory.
→ Israeli utility cyber-forensics findings prompting sector-wide emergency advisories.
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🛰️ End of report.
"What is going on in Venezuela?"
========================================
🧵 Legal paths: Declaring war vs labelling a state “terrorist” (Venezuela example)
This thread explains the legal differences, not the politics.
1️⃣ Formal declaration of war against a sovereign state
→ A declaration of war is a state-to-state act under international law
→ The target remains a sovereign nation
→ The conflict is governed by:
* UN Charter
* Geneva Conventions
*Law of Armed Conflict (LOAC)
Legal consequences
→ Armed forces are lawful combatants
→ Captured soldiers are POWs
→ Civilians retain protected status
→ Neutral states gain defined rights and duties
→ Rules apply on proportionality, distinction, occupation
Constraints
→ Requires self-defence justification or UN Security Council mandate
→ Aggressive war is illegal
→ Triggers domestic war-powers oversight
Key reality
→ Declaring war means accepting symmetry, limits, and scrutiny
2️⃣ Labelling a state or government as a “terrorist entity”
→ This is not recognised under international law
→ Terrorist designation frameworks were built for non-state actors
→ Entirely driven by domestic law and executive power
Legal consequences
→ Target is treated as criminal, not belligerent
→ No POW status
→ No lawful combatant recognition
→ Assets can be frozen or seized globally
→ Third parties risk criminal liability for interaction
→ Military action reframed as “counterterrorism”
Constraints
→ Minimal international oversight
→ No reciprocity obligations
→ Civilian / military distinction becomes blurred
Key reality
→ This route avoids the law of war altogether
3️⃣ Why states prefer the “terrorist state” route (no table)
→ Declaring war is rules-heavy; terrorist designation is rules-light
→ War implies symmetry; terrorism framing enforces asymmetry
→ War requires legislative approval; designation can be executive-only
→ War grants POW protections; terrorism allows criminal detention
→ War invites international scrutiny; terrorism centralises narrative control
Net effect
→ Sovereignty is hollowed out without formally declaring war
4️⃣ The critical legal point
→ Under international law, a sovereign state itself cannot be a terrorist organisation
→ What states actually do:
Label the government or leaders as terrorists
Sanction the state into isolation
Conduct violence under “security” or “CT” logic
This collapses the line between warfare and law enforcement.
========================================
🔑 One-line takeaway
→ Declaring war = recognising sovereignty and legal limits
→ Terrorist designation = denying symmetry and bypassing the law of war
🛰️ #OSINT Update for 3 January 2026 (CET) 🛰️
🇺🇸 United States — AI Regulation • Cyber Defence • Financial Crime
→ Federal agencies entered initial enforcement window for AI audit and certification rules; early compliance notices issued to vendors operating biometric and behavioural systems.
→ CISA flagged elevated post-holiday phishing and deepfake impersonation activity targeting utilities, healthcare networks, and state agencies.
→ FinCEN initiated follow-up examinations of high-risk MSBs and crypto kiosks reviewed in Q4, signalling transition from supervision to enforcement.
🇩🇪 Germany — Data Oversight • Surveillance Tech
→ Federal and state data-protection authorities began coordinated inspections of biometric access-control deployments in transport and critical infrastructure hubs.
→ Parliamentary committees resumed debate on export restrictions for advanced encryption and lawful-intercept technologies following year-end consultations.
🇬🇧 United Kingdom — Immigration • Domestic Security
→ Home Office stabilisation phase for eVisa biometrics continued; internal metrics showed reduced rejection rates but persistent edge-case failures.
→ Security services sustained monitoring of encrypted logistics and procurement channels linked to extremist financing and arms acquisition.
🇨🇦 Canada — Crypto Oversight • Border Biometrics
→ FINTRAC escalated compliance reviews for virtual-asset service providers with repeated reporting deficiencies.
→ CBSA assessed permanent rollout options for biometric entry lanes after successful pilot throughput benchmarks.
🇦🇺 Australia — AI Ethics • Surveillance
→ Federal oversight bodies moved closer to final approval of AI audit standards for law-enforcement body-worn cameras.
→ State authorities delayed expansion of facial-recognition in transit systems pending national governance alignment.
🇪🇺 European Union & Member States — Digital Identity Wallets • AI Act • Chat Control
→ Member States advanced technical testing for EUDI Wallet interoperability as conformity-assessment results begin to emerge.
→ AI Act implementation guidance for high-risk systems entered final coordination among national regulators.
→ Chat Control negotiations remained stalled on encryption safeguards, with renewed pressure to define non-mandatory scanning alternatives.
🇷🇺 Russia — Strike Ops • De-dollarisation • Military Posture
→ Russian forces maintained pressure on Ukrainian energy and logistics infrastructure through mixed drone and missile activity.
→ Moscow reinforced de-dollarisation measures in defence-linked procurement, tightening settlement and FX controls.
🇺🇦 Ukraine — Drones • Long-Range Strike • Cyber Defence
→ Ukrainian long-range UAV operations continued against logistics and fuel nodes supporting Russian operations.
→ CERT-UA disrupted malware campaigns targeting municipal services and regional energy providers.
🇮🇱 Israel — Border Security • Intelligence • Cyber
→ AI-assisted screening at border crossings expanded to improve detection of dual-use materials and UAV components.
→ Cyber-defence teams mitigated intrusion attempts against municipal and utility-sector systems.
🇵🇸 Palestine — Humanitarian Aid
→ Aid agencies reported ongoing shortages of fuel and medical supplies in Gaza, with hospitals operating under critical constraints.
🇨🇳 China — Digital ID • Surveillance • Censorship
→ Expansion of national digital-ID integration continued across public services, increasing biometric and access-log centralisation.
→ Encrypted-traffic inspection pilots broadened under updated regulatory frameworks.
🇯🇵 Japan — Encryption • Cyber Resilience
→ Government agencies progressed implementation of new encryption compliance guidelines while retaining emergency-response carve-outs.
→ Maritime and port operators conducted additional GPS-interference resilience exercises.
🇰🇵 North Korea — Military Posture
→ Monitoring indicated continued construction and reinforcement of missile-support and radar facilities along coastal regions; no confirmed test launches.
================================================
🏦 ECB — Digital-Euro • CBDC Architecture
→ ECB sandbox testing progressed on offline-payment thresholds and privacy controls; internal assessments feeding into 2026 design decisions.
🛰️ Intelligence Agencies — NSA • CISA • BND • MSS • Mossad
→ Western agencies updated joint threat assessments on deepfake-enabled social engineering targeting OT/ICS environments.
→ European intelligence services flagged renewed SIM-swap and identity-hijack campaigns aimed at telecom and energy executives.
→ Chinese security services expanded smart-meter and mobility-data analytics in additional pilot cities.
🔍 Cyberattack
→ Post-holiday surge in credential-stuffing and spear-phishing campaigns affected academic, municipal, and energy-sector networks.
→ OT/ICS advisories urged accelerated patching of building-management and HVAC firmware vulnerabilities.
================================================
📌 Forward Triggers
→ NATO consultations or posture changes following escalation tied to Russia/Ukraine operations.
→ Publication of Member-State EUDI Wallet conformity-assessment outcomes and enforcement actions.
→ EU trilogue outcome on Chat Control, particularly encryption and scanning mandates.
→ Verified assessments on Russian fuel production and export impacts from continued Ukrainian strikes.
→ FinCEN enforcement actions or rule-finalisation affecting kiosks and high-risk MSBs.
→ ECB sandbox signals altering offline-CBDC or pseudonymity policy direction.
→ Israeli cyber-forensics findings prompting sector-wide emergency advisories.
================================================
🛰️ End of report.
🛰️ #OSINT Update for 22 December 2025 (CET) 🛰️
🇺🇸 United States — AI Regulation • Cyber Defence • Financial Crime
→ Federal regulators moved into final review phase for AI audit and certification compliance ahead of Q1 enforcement; biometric and behavioural systems remain primary focus.
→ CISA circulated updated advisories on deepfake-enabled social-engineering campaigns targeting utilities, telecoms, and logistics operators during holiday staffing gaps.
→ FinCEN intensified supervisory scrutiny of high-risk MSBs and crypto kiosks, signalling imminent enforcement actions tied to due-diligence failures.
🇩🇪 Germany — Data Oversight • Surveillance Tech
→ Federal data-protection authorities advanced coordinated audits of large-scale analytics and data-fusion platforms used by law-enforcement pilots.
→ Parliamentary debate continued on tightening export controls for advanced encryption and lawful-intercept tooling.
🇬🇧 United Kingdom — Immigration • Domestic Security
→ Home Office expanded eVisa biometric stabilisation measures following technical backlog reports; additional verification pathways introduced.
→ Security services maintained elevated monitoring of encrypted procurement and logistics networks linked to extremist actors.
🇨🇦 Canada — Crypto Oversight • Border Biometrics
→ FINTRAC progressed enforcement reviews of crypto-service providers flagged for transaction-monitoring deficiencies.
→ CBSA biometric entry pilots reported increased throughput; internal assessment on permanent rollout underway.
🇦🇺 Australia — AI Ethics • Surveillance
→ Federal oversight bodies moved toward finalising audit requirements for AI-assisted body-camera analytics; interim moratoriums remain in some jurisdictions.
→ State transport authorities paused expansion of facial-recognition trials pending unified governance guidance.
🇪🇺 European Union & Member States — Digital Identity Wallets • AI Act • Chat Control
→ Member States accelerated conformity-assessment scheduling for EUDI Wallet providers ahead of early-2026 milestones.
→ AI Act coordination on high-risk and recruitment systems entered final guidance drafting phase.
→ Chat Control trilogue negotiations remained unresolved, with encryption safeguards and mandatory-scanning scope still contested.
🇷🇺 Russia — Strike Ops • De-dollarisation • Military Posture
→ Russian forces sustained long-range strike pressure on Ukrainian energy and logistics nodes; regional air-defence postures adjusted across neighbouring states.
→ Moscow reinforced ruble-settlement requirements in strategic procurement, tightening FX access for mixed-ownership entities.
🇺🇦 Ukraine — Drones • Long-Range Strike • Cyber Defence
→ Long-range UAV campaigns against Russian logistics and fuel infrastructure continued, with periodic disruptions reported.
→ CERT-UA and partners disrupted phishing and malware operations targeting municipal and energy-sector networks.
🇮🇱 Israel — Border Security • Intelligence • Cyber
→ AI-assisted screening and ANPR systems expanded at border crossings to detect dual-use materials and UAV components.
→ Cyber-defence units contained intrusion attempts against municipal utilities; vendor-chain forensics ongoing.
🇵🇸 Palestine — Humanitarian Aid
→ Humanitarian agencies warned of sustained medical and fuel shortages in Gaza, with acute pressure on hospital critical-care capacity.
🇨🇳 China — Digital ID • Surveillance • Censorship
→ National digital-ID integration advanced across welfare and public-service platforms, expanding biometric logging and access controls.
→ Encrypted-traffic inspection and content-labelling pilots broadened under new regulatory guidance.
🇯🇵 Japan — Encryption • Cyber Resilience
→ Inter-ministerial committees finalised encryption compliance roadmaps while preserving emergency-response carve-outs.
→ Defence and civilian agencies conducted GPS-interference resilience drills in maritime and port environments.
🇰🇵 North Korea — Military Posture
→ Satellite monitoring indicated continued expansion of coastal radar and missile-support infrastructure; no confirmed launch activity.
================================================
🏦 ECB — Digital-Euro • CBDC Architecture
→ ECB sandbox testing advanced on offline-payment limits and pseudonymity controls; internal telemetry informing 2026 policy options.
🛰️ Intelligence Agencies — NSA • CISA • BND • MSS • Mossad
→ Joint Western agencies updated threat models for deepfake-driven social engineering against OT/ICS environments.
→ European services flagged renewed SIM-swap clusters targeting telecom, energy, and public-utility executives.
→ Chinese security services expanded smart-meter and urban-mobility analytics in additional pilot regions.
🔍 Cyberattack
→ Credential-stuffing and targeted phishing activity increased against academic, municipal, and energy networks during year-end period.
→ OT/ICS advisories urged accelerated patching of HVAC and building-management firmware vulnerabilities to prevent persistence.
================================================
📌 Forward Triggers
→ NATO consultations or posture changes following escalation tied to Russia/Ukraine operations.
→ Publication of Member-State EUDI Wallet conformity-assessment outcomes and enforcement actions.
→ EU trilogue outcome on Chat Control, particularly encryption and scanning mandates.
→ Verified assessments on Russian fuel production/export impacts from continued Ukrainian strikes.
→ FinCEN enforcement actions or rule-finalisation affecting kiosks and high-risk MSBs.
→ ECB sandbox signals altering offline-CBDC or pseudonymity policy direction.
→ Israeli cyber-forensics findings prompting sector-wide emergency advisories.
================================================
🛰️ End of report.