In this video I discuss the failure of the academic community to get the predictions right about Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Most experts said that Russia wouldn't invade at all, and those who did foresee an invasion often predicted a quick Russian victory. So what went wrong, and how could we have done better to understand what Russia was up to? #Russia #Ukraine

Sorry for spamming everyone today about hour-long interviews with me, but here is another one. I am on Silicon Curtain for a talk about Russia's war economy, the strategic purpose of the Kursk incursion, and other related things.

Western security guarantees for Ukraine are not just about security for the Ukrainians. In a time of American withdrawal, Europe needs Ukraine on our side to balance Russia. That is one of my points in this interview by Anna Danylchuk.

The Russian war economy is not doing great, and they will run into serious bottlenecks within the next year. It is therefore time to let go of the idea that Russia has endless resources to continue the war. That is my topic in this video:

There is a lot of talk about a Russian counteroffensive in Kursk. It’s worth remembering that right now it is actually in Zelensky’s interest to make it sound like a big deal, because that will validate his claim that the Kursk offensive is working to divert Russian resources from elsewhere.

Surely the U.S. will respond by allowing Ukraine to use ballistic missiles against Russia. Oh, not? Sending thoughts and prayers instead.

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Ukraine War Bulletins and News (@SocraticEthics@mastodon.online)

⚠️🇮🇷US State Secretary confirms Iran supplied ballistic missiles to Russia and says sanctions will follow – the WP (more) https://www.p...

It's interesting how the Russian media is freaking out about the Telegram CEO being arrested in France. They openly acknowledge that the Russian military uses Telegram for encrypted communication, and that they don't have an alternative. But why is it that they don't have an alternative? Why don't they just use Signal (like the Ukrainians)? I think the big question to those who think that Telegram is a secure platform is why it's the only encryption service that is accepted in Russia.

I know that YouTube now has speed issues in Russia but why has this been a recurring experience for me in Denmark in recent weeks? Is there a connection with spillover effects?

The Russian reaction to Ukraine's invasion of Kursk is somewhat misunderstood. They may be slow, but they are not paralyzed. We should expect them to escalate the war, but that will require the use of conscripts. They are progressing slowly to avoid domestic backlash.