BTC Daily Intelligence Bulletin (DIB)
Block: 873,074
DTG/ICOD: 1200Z 03Dec24
Precedence: Routine (RR)
Controls: Public Release
QQQQ
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BLUF: Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire Under Fire / French Government Dissolves / US To Send Ukraine More / Patel As FBI Head Strikes Fear / AR Rep to Investigate Chokepoint 2.0 / Coinbase Drops Lawyers Supporting Anti-Crypto / USG Moves Almost $2B in BTC / Wharton Prof Says Bitcoin, Not BRICS Threaten USD / Japan Exchange Shuts Down After BTC Hack / Trezor Sales Up 600% / Is Today the Day for Alien Invasion? / Moore's Law Update / Cobra Says Bitcoin Soft Fork Next Year
Market Data: Price: 1 BTC= $94,488, 35,70 oz Gold, .22 Median US House
24hr Hi: $97,430 / Lo: $94,455
Vol: $63B (Up 19%)
Mkt Cap: $1.87T (Down 1%)
HashRate: 728 EH/s
Avg Fee Rate: 13 sats/vBtye (Down 10%)
Nodes: 20,781
---Reports---
-International Events-
1. Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire in Lebanon tested by intensifying cross-border strikes as both sides claim breaches: Israel unleashed its largest wave of airstrikes across Lebanon since agreeing to a ceasefire with Hezbollah last week, killing at least 11 people on Monday after the Lebanese militant group fired a volley of projectiles as a warning over what it said were Israeli truce violations. The projectiles were apparently the first time that Hezbollah took aim at Israeli forces after the 60-day ceasefire went into effect last Wednesday. (CBS)
2. French government faces collapse as left and far-right submit no-confidence motions: "The French have had enough," National Rally (RN) leader Marine Le Pen told reporters in parliament, saying Barnier, who only became prime minister in early September, had made things worse and needed to be pushed out. "We are proposing a motion of no confidence against the government," she said. Barring a last-minute surprise, Barnier's fragile coalition will be the first French government to be forced out by a no-confidence vote since 1962. Barnier's minority government had relied on RN support for its survival. The budget bill, which seeks to rein in France's spiraling public deficit through 60 billion euros ($63 billion) in tax hikes and spending cuts, snapped that tenuous link. (Reuters) (AC-Democratic governments cannot willfully stop profligate spending without being forced to. The voters will not support cuts to spending when they are reliant on them. The effects of MMT and expansionary government spending based on MMT are coming to a head globally.)
-US Events-
1. US will send Ukraine $725 million more in counter-drone systems, anti-personnel land mines: President Joe Biden aims to utilize all military assistance funds for Ukraine approved by Congress before his administration ends on January 20, totaling around $7.1 billion. (GroundNews)
2. What a 'deep state' investigation could look like if Kash Patel becomes FBI director: Patel says the current and former U.S. officials who he claims orchestrated "Russia Gate" should be prosecuted, while "thousands and thousands and thousands" of government employees need to be fired for aiding the so-called "deep state" -- what conspiracy theorists claim is a cadre of career government employees working together to secretly manipulate policy, undermine elected leaders, and take down Trump. Comey, McCabe, Strzok, Page, Clinton, Brennan, Clapper, Barr, Rosenstein, Haspel, Esper, Hill and Sullivan are all among 60 current and former officials identified in Patel's book as "Members of the Executive Branch Deep State" -- people who he called "corrupt actors of the first order." (ABC) (AC-Designed as a FUD piece against Patel, this article gives a semi-accurate picture of some immediate actions Patel might accomplish.)
-Regulatory and Legal-
1. Arkansas Republican French Hill Vows to 'Fully Investigate Operation Choke Point 2.0': Rep. French Hill (R) of Arkansas who currently serves as vice chairman of the House Financial Services Committee and as chairman of the Subcommittee on Digital Assets, Financial Technology and Inclusion, has pledged to “fully investigate” the alleged government effort to debank the crypto industry – dubbed “Operation Choke Point 2.0.” (BitcoinCom)
2. Coinbase Severs Ties With Law Firms Hiring Ex-SEC Officials: Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has announced the termination of ties with law firms hiring former SEC officials involved in what he considers an unjust campaign against the crypto industry. Armstrong specifically pointed out Milbank for hiring Gurbir Grewal, the former head of the SEC's Division of Enforcement. (Decrypt)
-Central Bank Digital Currencies/World Currencies-
1. US government transfers $1.9 billion in Bitcoin to Coinbase Prime: A crypto wallet linked to the US government just transferred approximately 20,000 Bitcoin, valued at $1.9 million, to Coinbase, according to data tracked by Arkham Intelligence. The wallet’s Bitcoin holdings are linked to the seizure of assets from Silk Road, a notorious dark web marketplace that facilitated illegal drug and weapon trades before its shutdown in 2013. At the time of reporting, the US authorities still hold around $18 billion worth of Bitcoin, alongside other crypto assets like ETH (approximately $217 million) and USDT (around $122 million). (CryptoBriefing) (AC-Many notable Bitcoiners are panning this action as a bad strategic move for the US if they are being set up to sell. It is possible that they are looking at using Coinbase as a custodian for a possible Bitcoin Reserve, but less likely given the Biden administration's distaste for it.)
2. Bitcoin, Not BRICS, Is the True Threat to US Dollar Reserve, Warns Wharton Professor: Jeremy Siegel, professor emeritus of finance at the Wharton School said on CNBC, 'I find that really curious because I think the biggest threat to the dollar being used as a reserve currency is bitcoin, which we all hear Trump is a big supporter of.' (BItcoinCom)
-Institutional Concerns-
1. U.S. ETFs for Bitcoin and Ethereum Show Strong Growth in November. Up Bigly: Record net inflows are seen in U.S. ETFs invested in Bitcoin and Ethereum, indicating a maturing market. Ethereum ETFs, led by BlackRock's ETHA, gained $467 million in late November, surpassing Bitcoin's modest performance. Bitcoin spot ETFs dominate with $105 billion in net assets, while Ethereum ETFs show potential growth. (Decrypt)
-Economic Indicators-
1. S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Close at Records: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 closed at record highs to kick off December trading, gaining 0.2% and 1.1%, respectively, driven by large-cap tech stocks, while the Dow Jones slipped 128 points. (TradingEconomics)
2. Dollar Index Gains Almost 1%: The dollar index gained almost 1% to 106.7 on Monday, rebounding from a 1.6% fall last week which was the first weekly decline in nine weeks.(TradingEconomics)
-Security Incidents and Concerns-
1. Japanese Crypto Exchange to Shut Down After $300M Hack, Transfer Accounts to SBI: Japanese crypto exchange DMM Bitcoin will transfer customer accounts and assets to SBI VC Trade by March 2025 following a massive cyberattack. (Decrypt) (AC-Not your keys, not your coin.)
2. Trezor Sees Record Sales Week as Bitcoin Approaches $100K: The hardware wallet company has reported a 600% increase in sales following the November US elections and recently recorded its highest-ever daily sales. Trezor’s new product line contributed significantly to this milestone. The hardware wallets Trezor Safe 3 and Trezor Safe 5 have gained much attention from users due to their user-friendly interface, sleek modern design, and robust security, thanks to Trezor’s open-source philosophy. (CoinGape) (AC-The same type of increase could be implied for ColdCard.)
-Technology and Science-
1. Alien Invasion Rumor Sweeps Social Media: Social media platforms are buzzing with posts about an alleged alien invasion predicted by Clif High's 'Web Bots' software, originally from the late 1990s, set to occur on December 3, 2024. While no official confirmation exists, the posts range from serious speculation to jest. Additionally, recent UFO sightings over Texas and FBI investigations into drone activities in New Jersey add to the speculative atmosphere, though they remain unrelated in official reports. (X) (AC-The 'Web Bots' software is an interesting attempt to scour the internet and forecast the future based on web activity. It has notable successes and many failures.)
2. The Moore's Law Update: Humanity’s capacity to compute has compounded for as long as we can measure it, exogenous to the economy, and starting long before Intel co-founder Gordon Moore noticed a refraction of the longer-term trend in the belly of the fledgling semiconductor industry in 1965. (X Post by @FutureJurvetson) (AC-A great post on one of the most impactful theories of our lifetime, and is still relevant to our future.)
-Bitcoin Community-
1. Cobra Warns of a New Bitcoin Soft Fork Next Year: Cobra, the operator and owner of the bitcoin.org domain, has alerted the community about a new development in the bitcoin world. He stated that unidentified bitcoiners outside of Bitcoin Core are preparing to introduce a user-activated soft fork (UASF) next year. In social media, Cobra stated: 'Some bitcoiners are going to attempt to soft fork in CTV through a UASF sometime in 2025. Not enough people are paying attention to this.' CTV stands for Check Template Verify, a series of improvements that introduce the concept of covenants to Bitcoin. Covenants are structures that establish spending conditions for the bitcoin stored in a determined wallet. (BitcoinCom) (AC-More research needed.)
-Bitcoin Sentiment-
1. Fear(0)/Greed(100) Index: 76/100 (Down 4 pts)
Analyst Comments (AC): NSTR
Follow us on NOSTR: npub1qktts9naunvjdwsktq5xjdhwh539xt4x0mqj4yxq0q9dvm03ljvs6sms0r
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Analyst: BV2A
END REPORT
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*NSTR-Nothing Significant To Report
