Implausible Deniability

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Forbes reports that Iran has successfully shut down Starlink "Kill Switch'—Iran Shuts Down Starlink Internet For First Time" The Author described this as a major escalation: "We have not seen this before"

🇸🇦Saudi Official: “When our refinery was attacked, we asked the US for help—but they stayed silent. Now, as we try to make peace with Iran and reduce tensions, America is deliberately sabotaging the process. They want war. The US is a war empire; it cannot survive without conflict.”

⚡️Europe moves away from the United States and calls for peace with Russia... 🇫🇷 Macron: It's time to reopen the dialogue with Russia. 🇮🇹 Meloni: Macron is right, it's time to talk to Russia. 🇬🇧 Starmer: Context involving a broader dialogue with Moscow must be ensured. 🇩🇪Mers: Partnership with the United States is complicated, Europe must be independent.

Türkiye is seeking to join the Saudi-Pakistan Defence Pact and is likely to join soon. - Bloomberg

The ongoing military preparations in Iran do not suggest a defensive posture at all. Over the past 24 hours, Iran has taken steps that indicate offensive preparations. These include: clearing flight paths and diverting them away from major cities; moving offensive assets toward the borders instead of cities; and reinforcing military bases with active and passive radar systems. The objective may be to ensure clear air corridors for ballistic missile launches and to prepare for potential Israeli defensive strikes aimed at neutralizing launch sites. Along with Iranian military and political statements, all indications suggest that they may be preparing for a preemptive move rather than a defensive posture.